Confidence? Optimism? Don’t look for it anywhere near Santa Clara.
The NFL season is 54 days away from kicking off and the San Francisco 49ers have already alienated their fan base. Four seasons after a trip to the Super Bowl, expectations are at an all-time low in The Bay.
In desperate need of talent upgrades all across the board this past offseason, the 49ers refused to address the quarterback position, were scared to make a splash in free agency and are essentially bringing back the exact same team that went 5-11 last season. Chip Kelly is a head coach, not a miracle worker. These are fatal errors that will impact their win total in 2016.
The problem with the 49ers is that this isn’t even a rebuilding project. GM Trent Baalke is in denial about the state of his roster, a patchwork of his draft picks that have failed to meet expectations. Drafting a young quarterback would’ve made a losing season understandable, even acceptable. Instead, the franchise is trying to tread water at the deep end of the pool with a cinderblock tied around its ankles. The 2016 49ers are going nowhere but under.
What exactly is Baalke going to say when his team goes 5-11 again this year? Removing Jim Tomsula, his and Jed York’s mistake in the first place, was not enough. In charge of personnel since 2010, Baalke has surely had his successes. But the good times seem like ancient history at this point. By sitting on $60 million of salary cap space, the GM pretended two straight years of major regression didn’t happen.
“You’ve got a less than 10 percent chance of hitting on a Pro Bowl-caliber player, yet you’re paying him at the top of the market,” Baalke said in April, defending his free agency strategy. “It’s like buying a stock at its high.”
The issue is the 49ers don’t have any new stocks. All of their poker chips are locked in a safe, and because Baalke thought he couldn’t land a Pro Bowler, the cash will collect dust. Fresh faces, no matter how overpriced they may have been on the market, were needed. No disrespect to Zane Beadles, but signing a guard from the Jaguars as your headline free agent does not change the culture. What Baalke probably doesn’t realize, is that it will be even harder to lure a Pro Bowler to town next offseason.
Where do we go next? How about quarterback, the most essential position in all of sports.
Nobody in the NFL is scared to face Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers’ offense. Defenders will be salivating at the chance to send Gabbert back to the bench and re-apply the ‘bust’ label. Even if Gabbert can pull off his best Alex Smith impersonation, there just aren’t enough playmakers in the fold. Take a second to reflect on the fact that a Smith-like season is the best the 49ers can hope for from Gabbert. San Francisco averaged an NFL-worst 14.9 points per game a season ago and didn’t score a touchdown in nine straight quarters, yet there’s a realistic chance the offense might be worse in 2016.
Baalke got into a months-long pissing match with Broncos GM John Elway over Colin Kaepernick and Denver happily left the stalemate with rookie Paxton Lynch instead. Now it’s likely the healing Kaepernick will play relief pitcher once the inevitable Gabbert struggles become too much to deal with on Sundays. Regardless, two backup quarterbacks doesn’t equal one starter.
The quarterback is supposed to be the unifying leader of your football team. Instead, the 49ers have already split the locker room before the season begins.
The 49ers are going to sell the fans on the idea that competition breeds progress:
#49ers QB competition set to unfold at training camp. #MondayMotivation
READ: https://t.co/NqfpkfJI29 pic.twitter.com/680Jn4QNQj
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) July 19, 2016
The reality, however, is that they ignored a glaring weakness for no apparent reason and will head into the season with two lame duck signal callers.
Undoubtedly some teammates will ride with the dual-threat in Kaepernick, and some will ride with the more traditional Gabbert. The one glimmer of hope with the position is that Kelly turned trash into treasure in Philadelphia, using Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez to produce back-to-back 10-6 records. Kelly openly said he wanted Kaepernick on the team, which makes us believe the hook for Gabbert will be quick once the season starts.
If Torrey Smith thought he had a tough time getting open in 2015, just wait until September. The speedy vertical threat is slotted as the No. 1 receiver, a role he’s never held heading into his sixth season — a role he was never meant for. The lack of viable pass-catching options means opponents are going to stack the box, making it difficult for Carlos Hyde to be the center of the offense.
Who’s to blame for this?
Baalke didn’t draft a wide receiver until the sixth round. The defending NFC East champion Redskins, already armed with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, took TCU wide receiver Josh Doctson in the first round. While the 49ers foolishly build from the trenches out, the rest of the NFL is continually adding impact weapons to their roster. The Rams have Todd Gurley, the Seahawks have Tyler Lockett, the Cardinals have David Johnson. Baalke wouldn’t even commit money to Anquan Boldin, a locker room leader and a productive pass catcher who would help the offense move the chains.
If the 49ers played in a less competitive division, they might have a fighting chance to improve on last season’s record. But the Cardinals and Seahawks are still Super Bowl contenders and now Los Angeles has Jared Goff in place to pair with a vicious front seven. The Rams knew they were stuck in the mud until they obtained a new franchise quarterback, and they were willing to trade the farm to get him. They’re now headed in the right direction. The 49ers are not.
If San Francisco is able to stun the masses and turn things around quickly, it’ll be because of their defense. Coordinator Jim O’Neil inherits a decent unit, especially on the back end. Jimmie Ward and Eric Reid have abilities to shut down opposing receivers to keep the team in some close games. Aaron Lynch, once he returns from his four game suspension, should add consistent pass rushing.
The problem is that when the 49ers were in their nickel and dime units last season, only four teams in the NFL were worse at defending the run (5.13 yards per carry). Teams can scheme the 49ers up and will predictably spread the defense thin. In sub packages, run stuffer Ian Williams comes off the field, where backs such as Gurley and Johnson can roam free. Pro Football Focus also ranked the 49ers’ front seven as the worst in the NFC. Baalke will pray first round pick DeForest Buckner is an instant game changer, in the mold of Aldon Smith.
Cheer up, Bay Area sports fans. The MLB playoffs begin in 77 days, and the Warriors will be back right around Halloween.
Just try and not get too worked about this year’s 49ers team. If everything goes right, a 7-9 campaign is the pipe dream. A successful season is not in the cards.
