The Oakland Raiders and the San Francisco 49ers have switched places on football’s totem poll. This makes people in San Francisco sick to their stomachs.
Long the older, prosperous brother of the Raiders, the 49ers enter Week 1 of the 2016 season expecting to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Oakland, on the other hand, is coming off a thrilling road win against Drew Brees and the Saints, a validation that their playoff expectations are real. In simultaneous worlds colliding, nothing makes Raider fans happier than the demise of the 49ers.
We can rehash everything that went wrong for San Francisco — the Jim Harbaugh falling out, key players abruptly retiring, GM Trent Baalke’s shortcomings in the draft. All of it played a part in where we are now.
Or we could move forward, where the 49ers can look at the reviving blueprint used by their crosstown rivals from Oakland.
The Raiders have identified and nailed draft picks at the three most critical positions in today’s NFL: Pass rusher, pass catcher and pass thrower. Khalil Mack, Amari Cooper and Derek Carr are foundational pieces that will keep Oakland relevant for the rest of the decade, with deep playoff runs certainly within the realm of possibilities. You can plug-in later round picks and cheaper free agents around this trio and expect success.
Part two of the rebuild was the 2015 season, where the Raiders went from 3-13 to 7-9. The NFL watched Carr throw 32 touchdowns, Cooper eclipse 1,000 yards receiving as a rookie and Mack elevate himself alongside J.J. Watt as the league’s most feared defender. The growth was real and other players around the league noticed, which made the Raiders heavy hitters in free agency. Offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele (he paved a hole for a 75-yard TD run yesterday), pass rusher Bruce Irvin, cornerback Sean Smith — all established and productive NFL players — wanted to come play for Jack Del Rio’s upstart Raiders.
Obviously, forming the young nucleus the Raiders have created is easier said then done. It’s rare when a team can hit a trifecta of players in back-to-back drafts. But look at where this team is sitting now. After years of getting crushed in the AFC West basement, they legitimately should believe they can win the division.
In a copycat league, the 49ers should recognize how the Raiders climbed from the depths of despair and implement a similar rebuilding plan. The 49ers will hope DeForest Buckner is the pass rushing answer of this three-pronged masterplan. There will be jousting for the No. 1 overall pick between the 49ers and Browns, who both should be salivating over Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson. Finding a wide receiver in the draft will also be crucial, so Torrey Smith can slide over to burn lesser cornerbacks on deep routes as the No. 2 option.
Again, the Raiders did go 3-13 in Carr and Mack’s first season in 2014, resulting in Dennis Allen’s firing. This was not as much as an overnight success as it appears now. Going from worst to first isn’t as simple as it once was, especially for the 49ers who have to deal with the Seahawks and Cardinals. Snapping your fingers and hoping to become Oakland could take until 2018.
But the Raiders have proved one big theory true: When in doubt, draft the young quarterback, even if there are mixed reviews. Because you can’t win without one. Carr was a second round pick, taken after Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater, and he was projected to have a low ceiling. The Raiders weren’t scared the bet their future on Carr and now they are reaping the rewards. If the 49ers somehow miss out on Watson in the 2017 NFL Draft, they can’t pack it in and fold on other quarterbacks. You absolutely need a young QB to jumpstart a rebuild. Retreads like Matthew Stafford cut hit the market this offseason, but buyer beware. Finding a Mack and Cooper will be just as difficult, but three players can change the tone of your entire franchise.
Baalke was correct in not flooding the roster with overpriced free agents this past offseason, but he setup himself up to fail by betting on so many of his underachieving draft picks. The 49ers have NaVorro Bowman, Carlos Hyde, Aaron Lynch, an offensive line, a few pieces in the secondary — and that’s pretty much it. If Chip Kelly gets six wins out of this roster, he really is a miracle worker. Unless there is a complete implosion and a divided locker room, Kelly deserves very little of the blame if and when the 49ers finish with one of the worst records.
The fact of the matter is that it’s Week 1, and we’re already talking about the 49ers’ offseason plans. In the NFL, if you don’t win in March and April, you won’t be playing meaningful games in November and December.
