Tonight’s NL Wild Card playoff between the Giants and Mets features a battle between two of the best starting pitchers in the major leagues, and two bullpens that have made headlines throughout 2016. Here’s a breakdown of what each staff brings to the table.
Starting pitching
Both Madison Bumgarner (2.74) and Noah Syndergaard (2.60) put together dominant seasons in 2016, posting the third and fourth best ERAs in the majors respectively. Syndergaard boasts the league’s most potent fastball amongst starters, with his 97.9 mph figure nearly two mph faster than second ranked Yordano Ventura. Interestingly, Bumgarner’s fastball, which averaged 90.8 mph this year, down from 92 mph in 2015, had a higher swing and miss rate, with batters hitting .224 against it compared to Syndergaard’s pedestrian figure of .283.
But Syndergaard uses that heater to set up a deadly 90 mph slider that has the third highest swing and miss rate of any slider in Major League Baseball. Batters hit .167 against it this season with Cory Seager as the only player to knock in out of the park in 180 at-bats.
The numbers tell one story, but if we’re talking situationally, there isn’t a comparison.
Bumgarner is 6-0 with a 0.60 ERA in seven road postseason appearances, and 4-0 in his career at Citi Field with a 0.62 ERA. Those are holy bleep numbers. Bumgarner pitched in a wild-card playoff in 2014 and tossed a complete game shutout over the Pirates. Syndergaard pitched in his first postseason last year and put up decent numbers, with a 3.32 ERA through 19 innings. The 6′ 6″ flamethrower posted a 2.87 ERA at Citi Field this year.
Syndergaard is likely the fresher of the two, with Mets manager Terry Collins only allowing the 24-year-old to go past the seventh inning just three times, finishing with 43 fewer innings than Bumgarner. Bumgarner also surprisingly indicated that he was tired before being pulled out of a crucial start against the Dodgers on Sept. 19, after throwing just 97 pitches, but it’s also possible that his bizarre altercation with Yasiel Puig had more to do with that.
Still Bumgarner has been one of the deadliest postseason pitchers in recent history, and until he gives us a reason to pick against him in the playoffs, he’ll have the edge against just about anybody, especially away from home.
Edge: Giants
Bullpen
The Mets finished third in NL bullpen ERA (3.53) in 2016, and feature closer Jeurys Familia, who lead the major leagues with 51 saves, tied for ninth most ever in a single season. Compare that with a Giants ‘pen that combined to blow a major league leading 30 saves and the comparison looks stark. The Giants closer for much of 2016 was Santiago Casilla, who himself blew nine saves before being replaced with Sergio Romo three weeks ago (who ironically was replaced by Casilla as the closer in 2014) who has gone 4-for-4 in save opportunities since being named as the Giants’ ninth inning guy.
San Francisco’s late game issues obscured what was actually an average season from the bullpen overall, where they finished 15th in the majors with a 3.65 ERA. The problem is many of the reliable bullpen arms of the past just haven’t been that this season, with Javier Lopez having a down year and Hunter Strickland remaining inconsistent in high leverage situations.
It probably won’t matter in a game where the starters are expected to go deep, but the Giants can’t feel that confident trotting out anyone late in a close game.
Edge: Mets
