Jon Lester helped the Cubs take care of the Giants in their 1-0 defeat in Game 1 of the NLDS on Friday, and things won’t get any easier for San Francisco in Game 2. Jeff Smardzija will make his first postseason start against Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks, one of the best pitchers in baseball throughout 2016.
On paper, Hendricks is the only starting pitcher who was better than Lester during the regular season, posting a league best 2.13 ERA amongst qualifying pitchers. Smaradzija’s numbers (3.81 ERA) don’t come close to matching that, but the former Cub ended the regular season on a tear, going 19 and 2/3 innings in his last three starts while allowing just three runs and striking out 24. Hendricks, on the other hand, is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing four runs in five innings of work in a 7-4 victory on Sunday.
Smardzija will be making his first postseason appearance since being a member of the Cubs — who drafted him in 2006 — where he allowed one run in one inning of relief in the 2008 NLDS. Hendricks hasn’t seen much postseason action in his young career either, and has been knocked around in two starts, allowing four home runs in eight innings with a 5.19 ERA.
As good as Hendricks has been regardless of setting, he’s been nearly unhittable at the Friendly Confines, with a 1.32 ERA in 14 starts, and likely the primary reason that manager Joe Madden gave him the start in Game 2 over the Cubs proverbial ace, Jake Arrieta.
Hendricks wasn’t at his sharpest in his only appearance against the Giants this season, allowing three hits and a single run but walking three and getting pulled after five innings in a losing effort at AT&T Park. He wasn’t nearly as shaky as Samardzija was in his performance at Wrigley last month, who gave up three runs while also walking three in just four innings of work. In that game, Samardzija threw 23 pitches before recording his first out, and 37 before recording his second. In general, Samardzija has had a hard time keeping the ball in the yard when away from AT&T in 2016, allowing 17 home runs in 18 starts on the road.
Samardzija has certainly earned his start with his performances down the stretch, but the Cubs are not a great matchup for the shark. Lefties have hit Samardzija well this season with a line of 272/.320/.461, and the Chicago lineup has a few excellent ones, including Anthony Rizzo who’s hit 24 jacks against right-handers this year, while boasting a .970 OPS in such situations, the seventh best mark in the majors. Rizzo is 1-for-4 in his career against Samardzija with a solo home run. Chicago left fielder Ben Zobrist has also posted impressive numbers against lefties, with 14 homers and a .823 OPS when facing them this season.
In general, the Chicago lineup has whacked Samardzija around with a team OPS of.879, but if he brings the kind of stuff we’ve seen over the last two weeks to the mound on Saturday, it may be a very different story.
