This week of football hype leading up to the Super Bowl is one of the most exciting times of each year!!!
Okay, I couldn’t even sell that to myself. In reality, every single year we get the same dumb questions at “media” day, the same style of manufactured narratives (if not the actual same narratives) and the same interminable wait for the NFL’s crowning contest.
That being said, there is also at least one thing about this week that is truly delightful on a yearly basis… and that thing is FS1 superstar Katie Nolan hosting five live shows from the host city!
Okay, there are at least TWO things about this week that are TRULY delightful on a yearly basis, because I love prop bets; and frankly if you don’t love prop bets, I feel bad for you. I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed.
Here’s why prop bets are great: because on the same list of potential wagers, you have the opportunity to gamble on key stats and figures that may actually determine who wins, AND ALSO gamble on whether Lady Gaga’s halftime show will involve a live snake! As a dedicated fan of both football and absurdity, this dichotomy pleases me greatly.
In fact, dichotomy doesn’t even fully get the job done there — as delightful as it may be from a purely linguistic perspective — because there are actually THREE categories of Super Bowl Prop Bets: Cross-Sport Props, Goofy-and-or-Silly Props, and Actual-Real-Football-Related Props (I’m still workshopping those category names, just FYI). So, without further ado, I present to you the fifteen prop bets you absolutely must consider…*
*odds may have changed since I last looked, but I assure you that I actually found real betting websites where you can make every one of these wagers. Believe me if, for no other reason, I’m not creative enough to come up with some of these.
CROSS-SPORT PROPS
Patriots points v. Russell Westbrook points (against TrailBlazers on Sunday at Noon PT)
Russie playing at home against a bad defensive team? I’d say he’s good to break 30 with ease, and 40 is a very real possibility. I mean, hell, 50 is a very real possibility. If you think the Falcons can slow down the Pats at all — or, perhaps more to the point, if you think the Patriots will try to slow the GAME down by running the ball — this is a good chance to put your money on Westbrook.
Patriots/Falcons combined 1st half points v. Steph Curry points plus assists -2.5 (@Sacramento on Saturday night)
Another chance to bet on a favorite basketball player if you think things could be a little slower than expected in the football game… Or maybe even if you DON’T think that. The over/under for the football game is 58 – which is to say that a combined 30 points in the first half would put the game on pace for the over. It’s very difficult for me to imagine Steph playing the Kings and not getting to AT LEAST 30 with his points plus assists. Gimme the Human Torch all day on this one.
Patriots points -2.5 v. Isaiah Thomas points (against Clippers on Sunday at 11am PT)
Another high-scoring point guard taking on another mediocre defensive team (are you seeing a pattern here???). Particularly in Chris Paul’s absence, the Clips should struggle to defend Isaiah, who has been tearing up the league scoring-wise in the last month or two. Even if the Pats get to 40, you’ve got a decent chance of winning a bet on IT4.
Patriots/Falcons combined FGs v. Tiger Woods Sunday birdies at Dubai Desert Classic
Okay, I love Tiger Woods and I hate to throw shade, but TIGER DIDN’T EVEN MAKE IT TO SUNDAY in his last golf tournament. Presuming that potentiality doesn’t void the bet (depends on the sports book you use, I believe) you could practically win this bet on Friday! And even if Tiger DOES make the cut at the Dubai Classic, it’s hard to imagine more than a few birdies… With a couple good kickers and at least one good red zone defense, I like the field goal option here.
Vegas Golden Knights Goals in First Regular Season Game -0.5 v. Patriots/Falcons 1st Half FGs
Honestly I have no idea which way to bet on this because we don’t know anything about the Vegas Golden Knights and they won’t even exist until much later this year. But isn’t it a beautiful world where you can gamble on a professional sports team that DOESN’T EVEN EXIST YET?!?! ‘Merica, y’all. We’ve still got some things going for us.
GOOFY-AND-OR-SILLY PROPS
Luke Bryan’s shirt color for his National Anthem performance: Black 5/4… White 3/1… Red, White & Blue 8/1… Field 4/1
Now look, I don’t know Luke Bryan from Brian Lucas (who I presume is also a country star, if he in fact exists) and I don’t know either of them from Adam. That being said, if you can’t bet on a country music star to wear red, white & blue during a National Anthem performance, what CAN you bet on in this crazy, upturned world? And you’re getting 8/1?? Yeah, I’m about that.
Someone on the broadcast says, “Houston, we have a problem…”: 5/2 Yes, 1/4 No
Another place I feel like we’re getting beneficial odds in favor of fun times. A “Houston, we have a problem” drop seems just cheesy enough that I actually think Joe Buck, Troy Aikman or even Curt Menefee could end up pulling it off. I can’t imagine why “No” is such a heavy favorite, but I would definitely invest in “Yes,” if for no other reason than wanting to be excited when Buck does say it.
Floyd Mayweather’s biggest bet: 0-100k +220… 100k-250k +175… 250k-500k +200… 500k-750k +450… 750k-1m +550… 1m-1.5m +600… 1.5m-2m +750… over 2m +500
Yes, there is at least one online sports book where you can bet on the size of Money Mayweather’s largest bet. FULL DISCLOSURE: This seems wildly shady to me, I have NO idea how the book plans to verify Floyd’s bets and it certainly seems like Floyd’s smartest bet would be to bet $1.7 million on himself to bet $1.5-2 million… But seriously, if you don’t mind investing money on a dubious bet in a dubious forum, I’d put some cash down somewhere between 500k and 1m. I feel like over a mill is excessive even by Floyd’s standards, but he’ll want to show you how few f#@&s he gives with a seriously large 6-figure bet.
Lady Gaga to cover one of the following artists: David Bowie 2/1… Prince 5/2… Leonard Cohen 4/1… George Michael 5/1… Glenn Frey 8/1
I don’t necessarily know whether Gaga is the sort to throw a cover song into the SBLI halftime show, but given that most people do a sort of medley, I don’t think it’s out of the question for her to throw in a tribute to one of the aforementioned artists who passed away in the tire fire that was 2016… Now, if she WERE to play a cover, David Bowie would be the obvious choice based on what I know about Gaga. That being said, the 2/1 odds don’t move me, so if I were to bet this I think my money would go down on George Michael (my money sees sexuality as a spectrum, not in binary terms). He’s a recent passing, he’s an absolute GIANT of pop music and he has classic songs called Freedom and Faith, both of which seem relevant and right up Gaga’s alley.
Lady Gaga brings a live snake on stage during her performance…
You may have noticed that I didn’t put the odds for this one in bold above. That’s because I don’t have ANY analysis regarding this prop bet — I’m only here to talk about the odds. BECAUSE THE ODDS THAT LADY GAGA HAS A SNAKE ON STAGE AT THE SUPER BOWL LI HALFTIME SHOW ARE 4/5. YES, I SAID THE ODDS ARE FOUR-TO-MOTHER-LOVING-FIVE FOR GOD’S SAKES. Listen, I don’t know if Gaga brings a snake on stage a lot or what, but I just can’t get over the fact that snake-on-a-stage is actually FAVORED to happen. Fantastic. And almost certainly not worth betting. Sorry, not sorry.
ACTUAL-REAL-FOOTBALL-RELATED PROPS
Mohamed Sanu Over/Under 4 receptions
Pound the over, as they say. Bill Belichick teams are famous for trying to “make the other team play with a hand tied behind their back,” which is to say limiting the favorite option of the other team’s offense. Obviously (and for obvious reasons) that favorite option in this case is Julio Jones. Now, I believe Jones is good enough to put up some numbers anyway, but if the Patriots are focused on limiting him that should certainly open up some room for Sanu to do work — and Sanu has shown himself capable of doing considerable work over the course of the season. I like him to have a big game in general, and it’s hard for me to imagine him not having five-plus catches.
First Touchdown will be scored by: Dion Lewis 12/1… Tevin Coleman 14/1… Levine Toilolo 33/1
There are lots of other odds for other players, but these are the three that struck me as the best value. Obviously the quality of these bets are heavily affected by who gets the ball first, but hear me out on some logic… On the Patriots side, Dion Lewis strikes me a far and away most likely to score their first touchdown — he could do it on the ground OR through the air, and while Tom Brady is obviously a likely candidate for a VERY short-yardage run, it’s at least possible that Lewis might get that opportunity too. He’s also capable of breaking a long run for a TD, and frankly the odds on LeGarrette Blount (the more likely short-yardage candidate) are not nearly good enough to bet. For the Falcons, Tevin Coleman is another guy who can break a long run, and those odds are decent, but my real sleeper pick is TE Levine Toilolo. He’s HUGE (6’8”, 265) and although he scored just two touchdowns this year, he makes for a solid red zone target against a very good red zone defense. I’m not saying he’s particularly likely to get that first score, but he’s moderately enticing given those 33/1 odds.
Most TD scored: LeGarrette Blount 7/1… Julian Edelman 9/1… Mohamed Sanu 11/1
Again, these are just my three favorite bets in this category. Blount for what I think are obvious reasons — if the Patriots are winning, I would expect them to try to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, and if they’re in short yardage near the goal line I would expect Blount to get the ball. That’s essentially his job. There’s a chance Brady vultures one if they are RIGHT on the goal line, but I think at this point Bill Belichick would rather avoid putting his 93-year-old superstar QB at the bottom of a pile. Edelman also strikes me as obvious — he’s the best receiver on the Patriots’ roster, so if you think this is an air-based battle and you like New England’s chances, 9/1 seems like a pretty strong payout. The Sanu pick follows pretty logically from my earlier pick in that Julio Jones is likely to draw a LOT of attention from the Pats defense (and his odds in this category are not nearly high enough to bet, in my view). We’ve seen that Sanu has the ability to throw down a big game, so it wouldn’t be a bad place to put your money in terms of risk-reward.
Super Bowl MVP: Julio Jones 9/1… Dion Lewis 16/1… Devonta Freeman 16/1… Vic Beasley 40/1…
First, on the offensive side, I think 9/1 is a great number for Julio. If he has a big game and the Falcons win, I imagine he would get the nod for MVP over Matt Ryan (unlike on the other side, where even if Edelman or Chris Hogan is great I would expect Brady to get MVP honors). The other good offensive MVP bets, in my eyes, are the two lead running backs — if, somehow, this game turns into more of a running affair than a passing one (which could certainly happen with offensive schemers as sneaky and clever as Belichick/McDaniels and Kyle Shanahan) then 16/1 suddenly looks like great value on two very capable runners (and pass-catchers). But the real value bet for me is Vic Beasley, if only because I strongly advocated for betting Von Miller before last year’s Super Bowl and that bet paid out quite nicely. Simply put — if nobody on the Falcons’ offense stands out particularly, but Beasley has a couple of sacks and the Atlanta defense slows down Tom Brady & Co., you can make a lot of money betting on the NFL’s leading sack artist to win MVP.
Matt Ryan Over/Under 325.5 passing yards
This is probably my best bet for the entire list of props. It’s a pretty simple formula: (a) The Falcons offense (and especially their passing offense) is excellent. Truly great. (b) The Patriots’ defense, while it was the league’s best in terms of scoring, is most successful in the red zone… Which is to say that they WILL allow some movement between the 20s. (c) If Atlanta is gonna win this thing, one would imagine it will take a prolific passing day from Ryan. (d) If the Patriots are winning, I would imagine that the Falcons will do a lot of passing in an effort to catch up and take the lead. What I’m saying to you is that almost any way this game goes, there’s a pretty damn good chance that Matt Ryan throws for more than 325 yards.
So there you have it! I’ve done the real work for you, all you have to do is find someone to take your bets (am I supposed to say “for entertainment purposes only” here?). And while you’re making bets, I’ll step out on a limb and recommend dropping a couple of clams on the Falcons’ money line, because who the hell wants to root for the Patriots? Amirite?
Anyway, that’s all I’ve got. Go forth and gamble, my friends!