For all of his faults, Donald Trump is good at one thing: Fabricating one side of the story.
His claims Monday night that his Twitter account is the reason Colin Kaepernick still is unemployed as an NFL quarterback are as laughable as touring the state of Kentucky for the reassurance of a cheering crowd two months into a presidency.
The longer Kaepernick’s National Anthem protest lasted in 2016, the more normal it became. Enraged military members and Twitter social justice warriors found common ground with the help of a viral Nate Boyer letter. Kaepernick began donating hundreds of thousands of dollars, putting his money where his kneeling was. 49ers players voted him the most inspirational teammate. Television ratings returned to normalcy after the election.
It’s okay to acknowledge Kaepernick’s protest has turned some NFL owners and fans off — the quarterback’s agents announced shortly before free agency he’ll be standing for Star-Spangled banner this season. It was a defining issue and many of us found ourselves debating close friends and family members about whether it was right or wrong.
What’s completely ill-conceived is a league blackballing it’s most polarizing player. Donald Trump is not deciding who is and who isn’t on an NFL roster. If anything, commissioner Roger Goodell wants Kaepernick on the field, in a new uniform, because all of us will tune in to see how it plays out.
The story of an unemployed Colin Kaepernick can be told on the football field. While he’s still respected by hundreds of his peers around the league, general managers and coaching staffs are making firm decisions looking at tape — and there’s a laundry list of reasons Kap will remain on the market for the time being.
1. Kaepernick and Jay Cutler are being grouped together in this free agency cycle as quarterbacks who irrationally still think they are starters. Of the teams that need a starting QB, none of them have the surrounding roster where Cutler or Kaepernick could walk in and succeed. Cutler and Kaepernick are not exactly the mentor types, either. If both want to be in the NFL in 2017, they have to accept they’ll be slotted and paid as a backup quarterback. That’s a tough pill to swallow, possibly strong enough for both to retire.
2. Kaepernick’s completion percentage last season in the third quarter was 34.9. It improved slightly to 55.2 in the fourth quarter of many games where defenses had switched to prevent. The NFL has increasingly become a short, horizontal passing league. His talent as a quarterback has never been accuracy.
3. Kyle Shanahan said it perfectly about Kaepernick at the NFL Combine last month in Indianapolis. “What Kap did to go to a Super Bowl, I mean he ran a similar offense to what I did in 2012 (with RGIII). I think that’s the type of stuff that gives him the best chance to be successful.” NFL Films guru Greg Cosell repeated the same thing on KNBR for months. Surrounded by Vic Fangio’s defense, Kaepernick was able to ride a wave of athleticism. He’s never been, or never will be, a sustainable NFL pocket passer. Kap is now a DVD player in a Blue-Ray world.
4. Shanahan also said this: “I don’t look at a players touchdown to interception ratio. I look at each individual play.” Where did Kaepernick excel in 2016? Touchdown to INT ratio (16 TD, 4 INT). Film reviews came back and Chip Kelly did a hell of a lot to prop up the statistics on a passing offense that still finished 32nd. Kaepernick was surrounded by absolutely nobody — as evidence of GM John Lynch gutting the roster — but what he put on film was nowhere near as good as the statistics indicate.
I think a team will eventually take a chance on Kaepernick this season. What’s the worst that can happen if the Browns invite him to training camp to compete with a rookie and Brock Osweiler? Blake Bortles actually had a worse completion percentage than Kap last year and I think Jacksonville would be his best landing spot.
As teams weigh the potential negative impact his protest will have on the community, they’ll also weigh Kaepernick’s quarterbacking style. Yes, he has more talent than E.J. Manuel and probably Josh McCown. Talent is a funny word, though. Arm strength and athleticism can only take you so far. Kaepernick was setup to succeed back in 2013. The NFL is an evolving beast and you’ll eventually find yourself unemployed as a quarterback if you aren’t consistent completing passes.
If he’s not flanked by talent, Kaepernick can guide a team to a 5-11 record. Can a GM or head coach really give a green light to a 29-year-old quarterback whose stock has tumbled? If so, they’ll likely one day lose their jobs.
