On June 1st, it’s so much more than just Kevin Durant vs. LeBron James. Or Steph Curry vs. Kyrie Irving.
It’s the little details and X-factors within a matchup that will determine a decisive victor in the most anticipated NBA Finals in 30 seasons. Let’s honestly just dive in.
1. How much pick-and-roll will the Warriors use and how will LeBron defend it?
During this 12-0 postseason run, the Warriors have relied less on systematic ball movement, and more on pick-and-roll and isolation attacking offense. Curry’s averaging 7.5 pick-and-roll possessions this postseason (up from 6.1 in the regular season). It’s increasingly where the Warriors are at their most dangerous. LeBron’s averaging 6.8 isolations per game this postseason; Duant’s averaging just 2.0. Those numbers will increase dramatically in the coming days.
When guarding Draymond Green last June, LeBron started blitzing the pick-and-roll and then using his athleticism to recover on defense. It was an effective strategy later in the series. That game plan likely changes with Kevin Durant handling the ball and/or setting screens. LeBron will guard all different types of players on defense, but he likely won’t have the luxury of blitzing a Durant-led pick-and-roll. If the Cavs have to switch and Kyrie Irving or Kyle Korver ends up on Durant, buckets will come easier for Golden State. The Warriors must still integrate their ball movement, but pick-and-roll opportunities is where they could end up exploiting Cleveland.
The Cavaliers themselves have been running the LeBron-Kyrie pick-and-roll, dubbed by ESPN’s Zach Lowe as the NBA’s most dangerous play. The Warriors not only have to combat this, but they should also steal a page from Cleveland’s playbook.
2. Cleveland has been the better 3-point shooting team this season, but those players can be defensive liabilities
How’s this for a crazy stat: 41.3 percent of the Cavs’ points this postseason are coming from behind the arc, compared to just 36.4 for the Warriors. During last year’s Finals, that number was 43.6 for Golden State and just 29.5 for Cleveland.
Cleveland’s front office has continually stockpiled shooters specifically for the month of June. Acquiring Kyle Korver, Channing Frye and J.R. Smith throughout the years has always been about the Warriors and nothing else. The results have manifested themselves. Cleveland leads all postseason teams in 3-pointers made per game (14.6) and 3-point percentage (43.5). LeBron’s been so dominant, the open looks from outside continue to present themselves.
While the Cavs play a more exciting — and at times lethal — style of offense than they have in years past, there are downsides that come with it. Korver and Smith can still be burnt to crisps on defense and with Harrison Barnes now off the floor, there’s nowhere to really hide a bad defender against Golden State. Frye’s defense was such a problem last June he didn’t play in Games 5, 6 or 7 — and it’s likely rotations will be shortened again. LeBron can only cover up for so many mistakes.
The Warriors’ drop in the amount they score from downtown doesn’t necessarily mean they’ve lost their touch as the best deep-shooting team of all-time. Durant’s arrival has opened up the floor for easier looks and more cutting towards the basket. Thompson might be struggling from behind the line but Curry certainly isn’t (43.1 percent from 3 this postseason compared to 40.9 a year ago).
3. How much defensive attention will the Warriors have to commit on Kevin Love?
Love is coming off possibly his best postseason series as a pro against Boston, averaging 22.6 points per game, while hitting 53.5 percent of his triples (23-for-43). Instead of letting Draymond lightly guard him and play freelance safety, the Warriors will actually have to commit defensive resources to Love. It’s quite possible Durant marks him to keep him off the 3-point line — while also preserving KD’s energy for offense instead of facing LeBron each time down the court. But the more Draymond is on LeBron, the more foul trouble he could find himself in. It’ll be a tricky thing for Mike Brown and the Warriors to navigate.
If Love is scoring in the 20s to start the NBA Finals, the Warriors will need someone to counter. They could end up effectively spreading it throughout their bench, but it’s more likely Thompson, Green or Iguodala will have to be on with their jump shots. If Love isn’t hitting, it’ll put a tremendous amount of pressure on Cleveland. You generally need to score at least 110 points to beat Golden State.
4. How will the Warriors handle their first real pressure-packed situation in 2017?
There’s no way to ignore this: Golden State hasn’t faced a serious threat all season. And, again, that’s nothing against their work ethic, but more a testament to the team Bob Myers has built. With that being said, this is a team who lost control of their emotions 12 months ago. Green’s suspension, Curry’s ejection for throwing his mouthpiece, even Thompson engaged in a war of words with LeBron through the media. The Warriors play best when they’re arrogant, but it felt like that line might’ve been crossed. Come June 1, most of the world is expecting the Warriors to take Games 1 and 2 at Oracle Arena. And while they can definitely still win the series if it’s tied 1-1, heading back to Cleveland will shift every ounce of pressure onto Durant, Curry and the boys.
If somehow the Cavaliers pull off another championship upset against the Warriors, the reaction shouldn’t be shock. June of 2017 will mark LeBron’s seventh straight NBA Finals appearance. Meanwhile, Durant hasn’t been to the Finals since he was a 23-year-old pup back in 2012. KD has grown so much as a player and as a man. Still, there is nothing that replicates the bright lights the NBA Finals brings. And there’s no player as comfortable on this stage as LeBron.
5. Are JaVale McGee, Zaza Pachulia, David West and Durant enough to combat Cleveland’s front line?
Cleveland won the title last year because of outrageously clutch performances from LeBron and Kyrie, but they also won the advantage in the post. The Cavs out-rebounded the Warriors in Game 7 by 9 and by 20 in a blowout Game 3 win. Attacking the glass with Tristan Thompson, Love and LeBron will always be a weapon at Cleveland’s disposal. But this time around there’s more than just Green and Bogut to combat. McGee, Pachulia and West have all been sprinkled throughout the lineup to give Golden State a much bigger feel. McGee’s capable of scoring outbursts, Pachulia can play that tough guy role, while West’s passing can lure big men away from the basket. Neutralizing Thompson is easier said than done. He also has a tendency to play with emotion to ignite the rest of his team.
There are 100 more games within the game we could write about. But if these five go the Warriors’ way, you probably need to ask for a day off in late June for a parade in Oakland.
