The Miami Marlins’ trade discussions involving 2017 National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton have become the defining story of the offseason.
The San Francisco Giants are in a heated pursuit of the generational slugger, and the team’s ability to acquire Stanton will have a lasting impact on the direction of the franchise. With Winter Meetings beginning next week, it’s possible a deal for Stanton could be completed before team personnel from all 30 clubs travel to Orlando, Florida.
What will it take for the Giants to land Stanton? Who else is involved and what other factors are at play? Let’s examine the hottest story in baseball.
What we know about Stanton: The 28-year-old has a full no-trade clause, and has reportedly made it no secret that his preferred destination in a trade is Los Angeles. Stanton grew up rooting for the Dodgers, and after the team lost in Game 7 of the World Series this fall, it’s possible Stanton is the player who could push the team over the top. However, the Dodgers have serious concerns about the luxury tax implications of acquiring a player with 10 years and $295 million remaining on his contract, which means Los Angeles may not be a serious player in trade talks with Miami. Right now, the Giants and the St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly the two most aggressive suitors of Stanton, and the Marlins could ask Stanton to choose between accepting a trade to either of those two teams instead of waiting for Los Angeles to enter the bidding.
What we know about the Marlins: A new ownership group took control of the franchise this offseason, and quite frankly, the group should be receiving heavy criticism for the way it has handled its power-hitting superstar. Miami is reportedly intent on cutting its payroll to $90 million before the start of next season, and while I can’t tell rich people how to spend their money, I can look at the precedent here and say that Alex Rodriguez is the only other player in recent history to win an MVP and then be involved in a trade in the same offseason. While nearly every ownership group would be salivating to build around a star like Stanton, the Marlins are trying to show him the door, which is typical for a franchise that has almost always been run poorly. I digress.
The Marlins have reportedly told Stanton that if he does not accept a trade this offseason, the team will begin tearing down other pieces of their foundation (trading Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, etc.) and leave him surrounded by a rebuilding squad that’s essentially tanking. Thus, the Marlins have made it somewhat clear they want to execute a trade and move Stanton off of their payroll, and they’ll likely prioritize a trade with a team (like the Giants or Cardinals) that is willing to take on a massive portion of the money owed to Stanton in the future.
What we know about the Giants: General manager Bobby Evans made it clear at the outset of the offseason the team’s top three priorities are finding a center fielder, addressing the team’s situation at third base, and acquiring bullpen help. Evans said all of that because….he can’t publicly comment on other teams’ players. At this point, it’s increasingly obvious trading for Stanton is the team’s No. 1 priority, as Evans and Brian Sabean reportedly met with Stanton’s representatives in Los Angeles presumably to convince Stanton to waive his no-trade clause.
The Giants don’t have a loaded farm system, but they don’t need to if they want to acquire Stanton. They need to be comfortable with taking on about $250 million in payroll over the next 10 years or more, and it appears as though they’re all in on that idea. San Francisco is determined to rebound from a 64-98 finish in 2017 and compete for a playoff berth next season, and trading for Stanton would go a long way toward making that goal a reality.
Nevertheless, if the Stanton trade talks drag on and the Marlins’ slugger waits out potential interest from Los Angeles, it’s increasingly likely the Giants will be forced to address other priorities and spend their money in different ways. If Stanton drags out the deal, it won’t completely eliminate San Francisco from acquiring him, but it will significantly reduce the odds. The Giants have too many other holes to address, and they can’t wait for the free agent and trade markets to dry up.
What we know about the timeline of a deal: There are conflicting reports from writers and media personalities who have consistently provided updates on Stanton trade talks, with Craig Mish of Sirius XM radio indicating a deal could be completed within the next day or two while Jon Heyman of FanRagSports writing that no deal is imminent.
What this says, to me at least, is that Stanton has not given the Marlins word on whether he would be willing to accept a trade to San Francisco or St. Louis. Stanton’s representatives met with both clubs last week, and for the time being, the Marlins’ right fielder is probably mulling over his decision. He could wait on a Dodgers team that might never take the bait and find himself stuck in a dreadful situation in Miami, or agree to play for a team that’s clearly not his first choice. If Stanton gives the go-ahead, though, I would expect a deal to be done in short order.
Baseball’s hot stove isn’t as hot as it usually is at this time of year because teams are waiting on the Stanton domino and the Shohei Otani domino to fall, but if Stanton says yes to either the Giants or the Cardinals, it shouldn’t take long for a deal to be struck.
Prospects on the table: Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported the Marlins have narrowed their focus to four Giants’ prospects in a potential deal involving Stanton. Miami is reportedly interested in 2017 first round draft choice Heliot Ramos, 2015 first round draft choice Chris Shaw, 2014 first round draft choice Tyler Beede and 2014 second round draft choice Aramis Garcia. Spencer also reported that Giants’ second baseman Joe Panik could be involved in a potential sway.
Money on the table: For a deal like this to be executed, the Marlins are likely going to want a trade partner to pick up about $250 million of the remaining money owed to Stanton. That estimate could be a bit high, or even a bit too low, but it’s the ballpark number I’m working with for all potential trades. Miami’s primary motivation in making this trade is removing Stanton from their payroll, so it’s unlikely the Marlins will receive more than one or two top prospects back in a potential deal.
Possible trades
Trade 1: Heliot Ramos and Tyler Beede for Giancarlo Stanton
This would be a difficult trade for the Giants to make, because the organization is so high on Ramos after he tore apart pitching in the Arizona Rookie League as a 17-year-old. San Francisco hasn’t developed a homegrown outfielder since Chili Davis, and Ramos has all the tools to reach the Major Leagues before his 21st birthday. Beede is the franchise’s top pitching prospect, but might be easier to surrender after a few up-and-down seasons in the Minor Leagues. Beede’s ceiling might not be as high as the Giants once thought, and because San Francisco still has Andrew Suarez closing in on an MLB debut, Beede is a piece the Giants might be willing to part with. Furthermore, the Marlins need all the pitching help they can get.
Trade 2: Chris Shaw, Tyler Beede and Joe Panik for Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon
This is a trade that’s been talked about by a few different reporters, but Henry Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle reported this is not an offer the Giants have discussed. Surrendering Panik, a proven Major League talent, would probably be too much for the Giants to give up, especially considering Gordon will make upward of $10 million each year for the next four years. Gordon, though, would be a perfect acquisition for a Giants team that needs speed at the top of the order to complete an overhaul, so it’s impossible to rule out his name coming back to San Francisco in a swap.
Trade 3: Tyler Beede and Aramis Garcia for Giancarlo Stanton
A trade involving both Beede and Garcia seems reasonable for San Francisco, especially because there isn’t a clear path for either player to make an impact at the Major League level over the next two seasons. Beede would need to compete for a role in the back half of a Giants’ rotation that has several candidates attempting to carve out roles, while Garcia, a catcher, is blocked by Buster Posey. It would be nice for the Giants to have some organizational depth behind Posey, but if the Marlins like this offer, it certainly appears feasible.
Trade 4: Heliot Ramos for Giancarlo Stanton
If the Giants agree to take on more than $250 million, or even take on the entirety of Stanton’s contract, it’s easier for San Francisco to only surrender one prospect in a potential swap. The problem? That one prospect will likely need to be Ramos, the player other franchises including Miami are most likely to covet.
Trade 5 (My guess as the most likely trade): Chris Shaw and Tyler Beede for Giancarlo Stanton
A top hitting prospect and a top pitching prospect who are both close to the Major League level could be exactly what it takes for the Giants to land Stanton. Shaw might not have an easy road to the Majors if San Francisco doesn’t see him as a long-term fit in left field, because the team is committed to Brandon Belt at first base for the foreseeable future. By offering Shaw and Beede, the Giants could keep Ramos, keep Panik, and still land their top offseason target in Stanton.