When the month of December began, the Oakland Raiders were still in the hunt for an AFC playoff berth and the San Francisco 49ers were five games away from earning the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft for the second straight season.
Though the Raiders were still performing well below preseason expectations, a weak AFC West and a muddled wildcard picture gave Oakland hope that if Derek Carr could re-energize the team’s offense, the Raiders could punch a postseason ticket. The 49ers, on the other hand, had yet to trot quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo out with the first-team offense, and rookie head coach Kyle Shanahan insisted there was no need to see Garoppolo work with the starters this season.
While Oakland was working to salvage its season, the 49ers were trying to convey the image the franchise wasn’t tanking. The Raiders hoped that a strong December run would build up whatever loyalty remains among a local fan base that will soon be abandoned, while the 49ers were probably mortified over what the famous empty seats photos at Levi’s Stadium would look like for the team’s final two home games.
Come Christmas Day, though, Garoppolo had earned more street cred than Santa Claus while Raiders’ head coach Jack Del Rio was as popular as Mr. Grinch. As one of most stunning months in Bay Area football history winds down, the 49ers are talking Super Bowl while the Raiders have a decision to make about Del Rio’s future.
What do the past four games tell us about the future of the 49ers and Raiders? Let’s take a look.
The 49ers have a much more stable coaching situation
Even if Shanahan finished his inaugural season with an 0-16 mark, the 49ers were not planning on pursuing a fifth head coach in five seasons. After Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly proved to be costly mistakes, San Francisco offered Shanahan a six-year contract to convince one of the game’s sharpest young offensive minds to coach the 49ers. Nevertheless, the 49ers’ rookie coach probably entered the 2017 season with as much job security as Del Rio, who signed a contract extension last offseason after helping the Raiders to a 12-4 mark and an AFC West crown.
With one game left to play, the Raiders are on the verge of finishing with the same record as the 49ers, which was practically unthinkable just four weeks ago. Del Rio’s job status is up in the air, and one report said he has just a 50-50 shot of returning. If not for the Raiders’ grim financial situation and unwillingness to pay a new coach top dollar, Del Rio would almost certainly be on his way out the door.
Over the next week, the names Jon Gruden and Josh McDaniels will be floated for every potential NFL job opening, including the Raiders. The problem for owner Mark Davis is that Gruden and McDaniels could walk into much better situations and receive better compensation elsewhere, so the likelihood that Oakland finds a coach who’s an obvious upgrade over Del Rio isn’t strong.
On the other side of the Bay Area, Shanahan looks every bit the offensive savant he was pegged as, and his marriage with Garoppolo is clearly one that works. While the Raiders will assuredly be searching for a new offensive coordinator, the 49ers have a system they can continue building with.
The Raiders still have more talent on their roster
The 49ers are playing much more inspired football and would definitely be favored over the Raiders if the two teams were meeting this week, but Oakland still has a better roster. Raiders’ general manager Reggie McKenzie has been on the job since 2012 and slowly crafted a more complete team, while first-year John Lynch entered a situation in San Francisco in which the roster needed to be gutted from top to bottom.
The 49ers’ four-game win streak is a prime example of why quarterback play is so valuable in the NFL, because Garoppolo is achieving all of his success with a makeshift offensive line and a ragtag group of wide receivers that hardly stacks up against the arsenal of offensive threats the Raiders possess. While Carr has Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree to throw to, Garoppolo’s receiving corps lacks depth behind Marquise Goodwin.
Both San Francisco and Oakland have significant issues on the defensive side of the ball, as Reuben Foster is the only true three-down inside linebacker on either team, while their respective secondaries are starved for talent and depth. Still, Oakland has pass rushers in Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin that San Francisco lacks, and the Raiders have a much more solidified group of pass protectors in front of Carr. If general managers around the league were asked which roster they’d rather play with for a one-game, winner-take-all matchup, most would choose the Raiders. If they were asked about the team they’d rather have over the long haul, though….it’s hard to pass up a team with Garoppolo right now.
San Francisco, not Oakland, is the better free agent destination
For players set to hit free agency this offseason, there’s really no question as to whether San Francisco or Oakland is the preferred destination.
The Raiders are a team on the move with an unstable coaching situation, while the 49ers are building a special product and every new piece could have a lasting impact on putting the franchise over the top. Because free agency requires players to take a variety of factors into account, no situation is created equal. However, if a free agent cornerback is on the market this offseason and receives identical offers from Oakland and San Francisco, I have a hard time believing that player would choose to suit up for the Raiders.
Perception is critical in the NFL, and the way both teams have played throughout the month of December has impacted the way free agents will perceive the Raiders and 49ers. Were the Raiders a one-hit wonder last year? Are the 49ers one of the most fun teams to play for in the NFL?
There’s now a legitimate debate over the Bay Area’s best quarterback
Carr is finishing up his fifth full season while Garoppolo has barely played five full games in his NFL career, but Oakland’s quarterback clearly took a step back in 2017 while the 49ers found their signal-caller of the future.
Carr’s career resume is far superior to Garoppolo’s simply because he has more experience, but it’s impossible to ignore the strides Garoppolo has made in just one month as the 49ers’ starter. While the face of the Raiders’ franchise is struggling with reads and is clearly uncomfortable holding onto the ball in the pocket, Garoppolo looks like a master at evading the rush and using his internal clock to allow plays to develop.
Garoppolo does have health on his side and three of his four starts have come against teams that are struggling, while Carr suffered a brutal injury earlier this season that might still be effecting his ability to play at a high level. Is it fair to judge quarterbacks over the span of one month in time? Probably not, but evaluating NFL talent should incorporate a bit of recency bias.
I’m not ready to crown Garoppolo as the Bay Area’s best quarterback until Carr is completely healthy next season, but the mere fact fans and analysts are questioning Carr’s status as the region’s top dog would have been a considered a shock at the outset of the year.