© Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
The Warriors have been pushed to the brink of elimination as a result of atypical offensive struggles, especially in their Game 4 and Game 5 losses. There are some themes woven into their shortcomings, including lack of movement, looseness with the ball, and an ultra-heavy reliance on the four All-Stars.
Let’s take a look at five statistics that help explain Golden State’s 3-2 deficit to the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference Finals.
The Warriors are averaging 58 fewer passes and 16 more isolation plays in the Western Conference Finals than they averaged this season, and 78 fewer passes per game than last round. (source: Second Spectrum)
The Warriors are averaging 58 fewer passes and 16 more isolation plays in the Conference Finals than they averaged all season prior to this series, according to @SecondSpectrum pic.twitter.com/MfOXy2tMQ2
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 25, 2018
How many times have you said to yourself throughout these past two games: this just doesn’t look like the Warriors? Where is their free-flowing, pass-happy offense that has brought them so much success throughout the past four years?
Steve Kerr has long stressed the importance of finding the right shot, not necessarily the first shot. Those concepts have suddenly gone missing.
The Warriors averaged a league-leading 28.7 assists per game this year. In their three losses this round, the Warriors have averaged fewer than 18 assists per game.
The Warriors’ lack of ball movement ultimately cost them in their last two losses. In Thursday’s 98-94 defeat, they fell victim to isolations and general offensive stagnancy in the fourth quarter. Durant admitted after Thursday’s loss that Houston has discovered how to best defend him in the post, frequently dragging another defender to force a turnover, a bad shot, or the ball out of Durant’s hands.
An unusually testy Kerr defended the strategy postgame. Durant in isolation is a matchup you’re willing to exploit, but Golden State has relied on it much more than normal.
The lack of ball and player moment led to a brutal shot clock violation as the Warriors trailed by three points with 2:21 remaining. Durant was forced to heave a desperate jumper as time expired, but he fumbled the ball going into his release and did not get the shot off.
The Rockets controlled the pace in Game 4 and 5. Mike D’Antoni has switched his philosophy from hunting shots in the first seven seconds of the possession to screening the ball as many times until he gets the matchup he wants, then attacking, regardless of what the shot clock reads.
This slowed-down pace has disrupted the Warriors, whose 72 shot attempts Thursday night were their lowest of the season.
Durant and Curry have taken 51.2 percent of the team’s shots this round, 10 percent more than the regular season.
Superstars’s shot totals will almost always inflate during the postseason, when the stakes are higher. As previously noted, however, the Warriors have reverted to hero ball when all else fails. Namely, they have relied on Durant and Stephen Curry to bail them out of bad offensive possessions.
Durant and Curry are taking more than half of Golden State’s shots, as opposed to 41 percent during the regular season. Part of this is Kerr choosing to shorten his bench. But another reason is that the Warriors offense has become more predicated on them more than in the past.
Durant is averaging nearly five more shots attempted this series his regular season totals, a massive spike for the efficient and selective scorer. Curry, meanwhile, is averaging more than three more shots more than he attempted during the regular season.
The Golden State bench is averaging 20.2 points per game, nearly 12 points fewer than the regular season.
It’s not like the Warriors bench posted prolific numbers during the regular season. They averaged 31.9 points per game, the 10th-fewest in the NBA.
But their production has cratered throughout the Western Conference Finals, again, largely due to Kerr shrinking the bench. Andre Iguodala has not played in Game 4 and 5, which has also affected rotations and bench production.
The lack of complementary scoring has plummeted recently. In Game 4, the Warriors scored 12 bench points. In Game 5, only five points.
The Warriors have to find some offensive production from Shaun Livingston, Quinn Cook, and David West. Livingston played 18 minutes in Game 5 and scored two points. West looked lost in his 12 minutes of action, as he was frequently left on an island defensively and failed to impact the offensive end. Cook missed two wide open threes that could have swung the game’s outcome.
Golden State has scored only 20.2 bench points per game in this series. Kerr is relying on Golden State’s four All-Stars more than ever: each of them played at least 39 minutes in each of the past two games.
Could the lack of offensive movement, and production, also be a result of fatigue? Possibly.
Golden State’s bench was a staple in each of its two recent championship triumphs. Kerr could occasionally platoon his bench players for spurts without suffering a dramatic drop-off in production.
Not this year.
The Warriors have had as many or more turnovers as assists five times this season; two of those have come in their last 2 games. It’s just the 2nd time they’ve done it in consecutive games under Steve Kerr and the 1st time since his first full month as head coach (November 8-9, 2014). (source: ESPN Stats and Info)
The Warriors have had as many or more turnovers as assists 5 times this season; 2 of those have come in their last 2 games.
It’s just the 2nd time they’ve done it in consecutive games under Steve Kerr and the 1st time since his 1st full month as head coach (November 8-9, 2014). pic.twitter.com/JNxiMNJCRW
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 25, 2018
If there has been one consistent knock on this Warriors team throughout recent years, it is their looseness with the ball. They averaged 15.1 turnovers per game during the 2018 regular season, the sixth-most of any team.
That carelessness has been exposed this series. In Game 4, the Warriors had 16 turnovers and 14 assists. In Game 5, they had 18 turnovers and 18 assists.
The final three minutes of Golden State’s Game 5 loss encapsulated all of its offensive issues, from the crucial shot-clock violation to Cook’s wide-open miss. A brutal final possession capped it all: with six seconds left and Golden State trailing by two points, Curry passed the ball ahead to Draymond Green, who fumbled the ball into Eric Gordon’s hands.
The Rockets held the Warriors to a .167 field-goal percentage in the 4th quarter in Game 4, the lowest for Golden State in any playoff period during its 6-year playoff streak. (source: Elias Sports Bureau)
The #Rockets held the #Warriors to a .167 field-goal percentage in the 4th quarter on Tuesday, the lowest for Golden State in any playoff period during its 6-year playoff streak. @ESPNRadio
— Elias Sports Bureau (@EliasSports) May 25, 2018
Golden State’s best chance to bury the Rockets came in Game 4.
The Warriors juxtaposed an electric, 34-point fourth quarter in Game 4 with a fruitless, 12-point fourth quarter. They surrendered a 10-point lead in an 95-92 loss in Oracle Arena, losing their for the first time on their home floor in 17 playoff games, and missing a massive opportunity to extend their series lead to 3-1.
What is so perplexing is that Golden State has three of the world’s best, most clutch shot-makers. Yet the Warriors have combined to score only 34 points in the previous two fourth quarters combined.
