© Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
The Toronto Raptors just became the first non-LeBron James-led team to win the Eastern Conference since the 2010 Boston Celtics. With a 100-94 win over the Milwaukee Bucks, they secured a date with the Warriors in the NBA Finals. They did it by playing through their star, and by severely limiting the Bucks’ star in Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Here are three things to look for when the series kicks off on Thursday:
Will Kevin Durant return?
Whether it was the Raptors or Bucks, the Warriors were always going to be much better suited with a healthy Kevin Durant. I understand there is a large contingent of people who would debate that, and I completely understand the merits of the non-KD spacing which Durant’s absence has resurrected. It has unleashed vintage versions of Draymond Green and Stephen Curry.
The problem with that thesis, and expecting Durant to be a net negative, is that the Warriors haven’t had to face a team that’s run by a small forward, nor have they had to face a team with the quality bigs that the Raptors have.
The Los Angeles Clippers did it by committee. The Houston Rockets ran everything through Harden and the hopes that their other players would knock down shots when he opened up space for them. The Portland Trail Blazers lived (and ultimately died) by their backcourt. But the Raptors? They have a star small forwards in Kawhi Leonard, through which their whole offensive scheme relies (so did the Bucks).
Durant’s presence acts as a counterbalance, but it could also have some interesting defensive ramifications.
He’ll force Leonard and/or Pascal Siakam to exert an enormous amount of energy guarding him, even if it’s largely mental. Even if he’s not 100 percent, the threat of his offense will have to be accounted for.
When the Warriors played the Raptors twice in the regular season, they lost both times. The December 12 performance was a 20-point annihilation by the Raptors, and arguably the most embarrassing loss of the season by the Warriors. The other game on November 29 was a 131-128 overtime loss in which Durant dropped 51 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists.
It was a much more accurate representation of what this series could look like in terms of competitiveness, and what value Durant could provide if healthy. It’s hard to try and gauge what a postseason series will look like based on two regular season games before Christmas, but it’s our only example of what Durant and Raptors Leonard look like going against each other.
On the defensive end, Durant is probably not likely to do the bulk of guarding Leonard if he’s not 100 percent, meaning Draymond Green and/or Klay Thompson will have that duty. How that affects them, and how Durant can match up against some of the Raptors’ bigs, like Siakam, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol when he’s inevitably switched onto them, will ultimately shape the course of the series.
The Steph and Draymond show
If Durant returns, it presents the Warriors with an odd opportunity. If healthy, he’s the greatest player on the planet. But if he’s not, he could massively disrupt the flow that Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have been in since Durant went out. That’s a definite possibility, although I don’t think that’s how it will play out (more on that below).
Green has looked like the best possible version of himself. He’s been a “wrecking ball” as Steve Kerr said after Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals, and is playing arguably the best basketball of his career. His play has been aggressive, but incisive. Whereas his regular season play could sometimes border on reckless, his focus on the game, and not getting distracted by refereeing is as evident it’s ever been.
He drives hard, pushes the pace, and puts the other team on the back foot. It has completely opened up the game for Curry and Klay Thompson, and Curry has reaped rewards much like he did in the 2015 season.
You have to think that if Curry and Green maintain the level of play, energy, and, more than anything, the intelligence they’ve been playing with – avoiding those stupid cross court passes, not taking bad shots, moving the ball until a great shot has opened up – it’s hard to imagine the Raptors will have an effective way to shut them down.
Again, this all hinges on whether Durant comes back, and how he decides to play when/if he does. If he’s healthy, it should be a boon to the team, taking defensive pressure off Curry and Thompson. But if he’s unhealthy, and tries to get off shots that aren’t working, it could backfire.
The thing is, Durant has shown this season that he can be incredibly unselfish, especially when his shot is not falling. If he’s not 100 percent, or doesn’t feel the confidence in his shot that he normally has, it seems more likely that he’d slip back into the offense and work as a post facilitator rather than a pure scorer, allowing the revived Curry/Draymond combo to continue to flourish.
Boogie and the bench vs. the Raptors’ bench mob
DeMarcus Cousins is active for Game 1 and is likely to play. He has the potential to play a huge role in this series, considering the size of the Raptors’ team.
Their composition is essentially Leonard, a group of shooting-capable guards and three bigs in Siakam, Ibaka, Gasol. OG Anunoby has been out with an appendectomy, but he would throw a defensive wrinkle in against the Warriors second unit that they like to run with Klay Thompson if he’s healthy.
The Raptors have one main weapon: Kawhi Leonard. Then, they have everyone else. While Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka seem like they’d be a tier above the rest of the guards on the roster, it’s guys like Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell who have so often torched opposing defenses for 15-plus points with stellar shooting performances.
The question the Warriors have to deal with is how they’ll figure out how to shut down the Raptors’ shooters while matching up effectively against their three core bigs. A healthy DeMarcus Cousins could provide a massive boost, but only if he plays intelligently. He could easily play into the Raptors’ hands with his tendency to be overzealous on the defensive end and run into foul trouble.
What’s clear is that the Warriors will be hoping desperately for Andre Iguodala to get back to full health. Defensive coordinator/wizard Ron Adams has likely already game planned the Raptors to a T, but Iguodala is certain to be a huge part of those plans. The switchability of Iguodala, Green and Thompson has presented a defensive problem that no team has effectively solved, and that is likely to be the case if Iguodala is healthy.
