© Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
SANTA CLARA – Before the 2018 season, no NFL defense had forced less than 11 turnovers. There were a handful of teams, following the 1982 Baltimore Colts – who set that initial record – that tried, and failed to take that crown of turnover ineptitude. This included the 2013 Houston Texans, 2015 Dallas Cowboys and 2016 Chicago Bears.
But all of these teams failed to measure up to the absolute lack of dominance the San Francisco 49ers displayed in the turnover game last season. Not only were the 49ers the first team to secure less than double-digit turnovers, but their seven-turnover mark broke the previous record by four; a number that’s actually less than the team’s 4.57 turnover ratio (32 turnovers given: 7 forced). That -25 turnover differential was the worst in the league by seven turnovers, meaning they would have still been tied for the worst turnover differential in the league even if they had doubled their record-setting low figure.
Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh said the woeful differential was “baffling” late last season.
“It’s baffling to me that we haven’t been able to get as many as we had and how many missed (opportunities) we’ve had,” Saleh said. “I’m not even talking about miraculous plays. I’m just talking about plays that I feel like are gimmies. We should be well in double digits in terms of takeaways.”
Richard Sherman also pinpointed dropped interceptions, an obvious factor in the (also) record-setting low of two interceptions snagged by the team last year. There were 46 players alone who caught two interceptions last year.
This is without mentioning the other deficiencies in the defense last season, of which there were plenty.
The 49ers were bad, but not abysmal at pressuring the quarterback, ranking 19th with a 30.4 percent pressure rate (plays with pressure/total plays). They ranked 24th in DVOA when they were able to create pressure, and 28th when they were unable to create pressure (DVOA is defensive value over average, a measure that tries to assign a value to performance, taking into account things like the importance of an offense gaining three yards in, say, a 3rd-and-2 versus three yards in a 3rd-and-10).
Essentially, the 49ers were below average at pressuring opposing offenses (they were tied for 22nd in total sacks, with 37), and bad even when they did create pressure. They were one of the worst defenses in the league when they were unable to create pressure.
This is all without mentioning the epidemic of missed tackles the 49ers came down with from the outset of last year. While the issue improved after a league-worst mark in the early going, things like the play below were more frequent than can be the case if a team wants to compete:
49ers Film Room: Breaking down the missed tackles, bad matchups and Beathard’s hard lesson vs. the Chargers
– Chargers are very creative in their use of WRs in the run game. Gashed 49ers to the outside with their counter game.
Read: https://t.co/IjvFdDIin3 pic.twitter.com/BEeiJLlkba
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 4, 2018
So, how does that change?
It starts with the front. It requires no expert analysis to understand the team will be better with a Pro Bowl edge rusher in Dee Ford, the second overall pick in Nick Bosa (although Solomon Thomas’ performances after being the third overall pick put that assumption in question), and a hopefully healthy Kwon Alexander, who, after a Pro Bowl third season, tore his ACL last year, and is still just 24 (25 in about a week).
There were also injuries to Jimmie Ward (which, at this point, has become something to plan for, rather than be surprised by), who missed the final five games of the season, Marcell Harris, who missed most of the first half while recovering from a torn Achilles, Adrian Colbert, who was sidelined for the entire second half with a high ankle sprain, the disaster of Reuben Foster’s domestic violence charge, which was dropped in January but saw him released by the 49ers in late November, Emmanuel Moseley, who missed most of the second half after dislocating his shoulder, Jaquiski Tartt, who missed six games with a nagging shoulder issue, and Ahkello Witherspoon, who missed the final two games of the year with a knee injury.
All those injuries amounted to 39 missed games from secondary players who, if not starting, figured to at least play significant minutes. The upside of those injuries is that young players, like D.J. Reed and Tarvarius Moore, saw their minutes balloon, taking in valuable reps as rookies.
The addition of cornerback Jason Verrett could also prove to be a fantastic signing, but while Verrett’s pedigree is as a Pro Bowler, he’s never played more than 14 games (in his one Pro Bowl season), and not played more than six games in three of his four years (just five games in his last two years), to the point that he considered retirement.
At the very least, the young defensive group, with almost 20 players aged 25 and younger who are near-locks to make the final roster, will have an additional year of experience, something that is impossible to undervalue in the NFL.
Saleh discussed his defense on May 29 after most of the offseason work took place and said while there is potential for more wide-nine alignments to play to Ford’s strengths as a free edge rusher, the defensive philosophy of a 4-3, Cover 3 scheme will stay the same.
“We might look different, but philosophically, the overall foundation of the defense hasn’t changed,” Saleh said. “Our front has a chance to be special. “They know it. With great expectations, usually, people rise to the level to those expectations. It’s like telling an offense to get by without a good quarterback. Our front is everything.”
He was optimistic about improvement from Solomon Thomas, said he expects growth from Ahkello Witherspoon, and was positive about a “chomping at the bit” Jason Verrett, who Saleh described as a “top-20” corner in the NFL when healthy.
One of the clearest issues last season was blown coverages in that young secondary, a product largely of misunderstandings and a lack of communication. It’s impossible to forget the blown coverages in Week 5 and 6, which we outlined here. Saleh did not get into detail about those miscommunications on May 29, but acknowledged the importance of improving that communication.
What Saleh is approaching is the hope that an overhauled front can take a below-average pressure team to above average, and will shield a secondary which failed to add any significant pieces over the summer, but which will hope to see much of its core stay far healthier than last season; essentially, addition by the lack of subtraction.
For Saleh and the 49ers, the reality is that a massive improvement is necessary if the 49ers are going to transform from a bottom-feeder to a contender. If that doesn’t happen, Saleh might find himself on the hot seat. The question is, how much will the defense actually improve?
Note: This piece is part of a countdown to training camp feature which, each day leading up to the start of training camp on July 27, will take a look at one of the 10 biggest questions the 49ers will have to answer this season. While camp officially starts on July 26, the first practice is July 27.
To read Wednesday’s piece on the decisions the 49ers will have to make with their glut of backfield options click here.