Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Will Smith has a $17.8 million decision to make.
The Giants extended the qualifying offer to both Smith and Madison Bumgarner on Monday, giving the two lefties a sizable, one-year offer, which Bumgarner surely will turn down because he can find more on the free-agent market.
Odds are that Smith, too, will reject it and see what he can find when all 30 teams can bid for him. But the qualifying offer hurts his value, as the team that signs him would have to forfeit a compensatory draft pick to the Giants.
Smith has 10 days to decide whether to return or test a market in which he’s expected to be the top reliever, after the Yankees and Aroldis Chapman agreed to an extension and the Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen did not opt out. Houston’s Will Harris, the Yankees’ Dellin Betances and ex-Giants like Sergio Romo and Drew Pomeranz will be surprising headliners.
Since 2012, only six of the 80 players extended qualifying offers have accepted it. Players who previously received the tag are ineligible, so a closer like Smith, who has made just under $13 million for his career, can bet on himself for one nicely compensated season then seek a long-term deal next offseason without the strings that come with the QO. Or he can gamble an interested team would guarantee him the big payday now, even with the draft-pick loss, and see if he can fetch a pact for perhaps three years and $45-50 million.
On Saturday, Smith’s buddy Tony Watson chose not to test the market, perhaps fearful of how much relievers will be worth this offseason, and exercised the last year of his deal, which should be worth about $7 million.
Smith was perfect prior to the All-Star break last season, entering the Midsummer Classic without a blown save, but was mortal after the break, when a 1.98 ERA rose to 3.72. He was effective against hitters from both sides of the plate but nearly untouchable against lefties, who slashed .157/.167/.229 against him.
While Bumgarner is sure to reject the offer, the fact that any other team would lose a draft pick to sign him — and the Giants wouldn’t — gives them a slight advantage if they decide to bring the franchise lefty back on a long-term deal.