© Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

To suggest that the 49ers would effectively choose Arik Armstead over DeForest Buckner a year ago would be blasphemous. Even after Armstead’s 10-sack, standout season, it leaves plenty of room for head-scratching.

But there was a value decision made in Santa Clara which equated to this:

• Armstead would be cheaper than Buckner, both in the short and long term, by about $4 million per year and has the flexibility to play both on the interior and outside
• Buckner was worth far more on the open market than Armstead. If Armstead could have been tagged-and-traded for a first-rounder, the scenario might have played out differently
• The value of the 13th overall pick allows the 49ers massive value in a draft in which they lacked any picks from the second through fourth rounds. They can trade down further, or go after premier talent at wide receiver, or try a Buckner replacement who will be far cheaper for the next four years, and use that extra money to avoid restructuring deals, potentially add free agents and hand out extensions (George Kittle, Jimmie Ward, Emmanuel Sanders, Jaquiski Tartt, Kyle Juszcyzk, Emmanuel Moseley, etc.)

Here are four scenarios for how the 49ers will use their newfound draft capital:

Option 1: Keep Pick 13, Trade Pick 31

• Draft a wide receiver, move back, draft a safety and defensive lineman in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds
• Draft a defensive lineman, move back, draft a safety and wide receiver in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds

In order to actually assess what the 49ers do with their new, luster-laden pick, you need to know who’s going to be available. Mock drafts change constantly, and with trades like these, it’s hard to assess whether other teams trade up. But certain players are a lock to go before the 13th pick and other are likely.

Locks to go before 13: Joe Burrow, Chase Young, Isiah Simmons, Jeff Okudah

Likely to go before 13: Tristan Wirfs, Mekhi Becton, Tua Tagavailoa, Derrick Brown, Javon Kinlaw

Here’s a mock draft of the first 13 from NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah. The Arizona Cardinals were mocked to take CeeDee Lamb, but their acquisition of Deandre Hopkins earlier in the day probably takes them out of the equation, and maybe moves them into the conversation for a possible trade down.

Take 2…
1) CIN-J. Burrow
2) WAS-C. Young
3) DET- J. Okudah
4) NYG- T. Wirfs
5) MIA-J. Herbert
6) LAC-Tua
7) CAR- I. Simmons
8) AZ-M. Becton
9) JAX-J. Kinlaw
10) CLE- J. Wills
11) NYJ- A. Thomas
12) LV-J. Jeudy
13) SF-C. Lamb

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) March 16, 2020

There’s a premium on the elite offensive line talent in this draft and it’s unclear whether a team who’s desperate for a corner jumps up for someone like C.J. Henderson or Jeff Gladney and pushes the rest of the projections down.

What is clear is that it’s very unlikely the 49ers won’t have a shot to draft one of the three elite wide receivers in the draft in Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb and Henry Ruggs III.

Lamb is probably the best wide receiver in the draft, and being able to watch him during throwing drills at the NFL Combine was astounding. He was far and away the best wide receiver on the field and looks as sure a star as any wide out in this draft.

But maybe one of Kinlaw or Brown drops and the 49ers elect to go like-for-like and replace Buckner with a younger interior defensive lineman. Either way, if they keep that pick it seems overwhelmingly likely it would be for a wide receiver or a defensive lineman. A defensive back isn’t out of the question, but seems like less of an immediate help.

The logic of trading away that 31st pick is to acquire further value in a likely second-round and third- or fourth-round pick. This is where they would address whatever they didn’t with their first selection (in a wide receiver or defensive lineman) and go for it here.

All of this, of course, depends on whether Jimmie Ward and/or Emmanuel Sanders return. If Ward is gone, the 49ers would likely go after a safety, with a solid crop expected to fall into the first half of the second round (Cal’s Ashtyn Davis, who was unable to perform at the NFL Combine, and whose Pro Day at Cal was canceled, is a prime candidate, given his agent used to represent John Lynch – full story here).

If Sanders is gone, you can bet on that No. 13 pick being used on a wide receiver.

Option 2: Trade Pick 13, Keep Pick 31

• Draft a wide receiver and safety in the first and defensive lineman in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds
• Draft a defensive lineman and wide receiver in the first and safety in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds
• Draft a defensive lineman and safety in the first and wide receiver in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds

This option would probably result in the 49ers keeping two first-round picks, with the 13th turning into something later in the first round (or a first-round pick in next year’s draft) along with a second- or third- and fourth-round pick. This option gives San Francisco a chance to increase the value of that 13th pick, especially if they’re enamored with some of the late first-round prospects.

If they like wide receivers like Denzel Mims from Baylor, Jalen Reagor from TCU, or Brandon Aiyuk from Arizona State, or even Laviska Shenault from Colorado (injured himself at the Combine and requires surgery) whose stock has dropped, they could make a move back with that first selection.

The same could be said if they like a defensive line option and think one will drop, like K’Lavon Chaisson from LSU (a tremendous edge rusher), or Jordan Love (QB from Utah State) and go for the best available talent, or exploit a team high on one of those players, rather than go for a need that might be reaching.

Option 3: Trade Pick 13, Trade Pick 31

• Move back, draft a wide receiver the first and defensive lineman/safety in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds, acquire picks for 2021
• Move back, draft a defensive lineman and wide receiver/safety in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds, acquire picks for 2021
• Move back, draft a safety and a defensive lineman and wide receiver in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds, acquire picks for 2021

This is far from unfathomable, and is the best course for the 49ers re-stocking their pick supply in both this and next year’s draft, especially, if a team at the back end of the first round sees someone like Justin Herbert drop and feel like they have no choice but to move up for him.

It’s a prime position for effectively extorting teams based on whatever pick they’re desperate for. This scenario allows for the 49ers to keep a first-round pick, probably in the 15-plus range, and draft whatever position they deem most valuable, while getting assets later in this draft and for 2021.

If they re-sign Emmanuel Sanders and Jimmie Ward, this could be a prime option, although Kinlaw and Brown are viewed as head and shoulders above the rest of the defensive line prospects. There’s also the possibility of signing an interior line option and drafting one later on.

Option 4: Keep Pick 13, Keep Pick 31

• This seems unlikely, but if they see value and don’t have Jimmie Ward or Sanders coming back and addressing the defensive line in free agency
• Draft both a wide receiver and a safety

If the 49ers are able to address needs in free agency with Ward and Sanders, this is possible, though keeping two first-round picks seems irresponsible on their part. This section is listed more for posterity and the fact that it is technically an option. It doesn’t seem sensible for the team to hold onto two first-round picks with a three-round pick gap.

But, for the sake of this exercise, let’s say Ward and Sanders return, and the 49ers have Kinlaw or Brown drop to them, and have someone like Aiyuk or Gladney, or Xavier McKinney available at 31 (or some other player they love). That would be the scenario for holding onto the picks.