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The 49ers are in a cap crunch and have a few assets they’re reportedly willing to move, which include Matt Breida and Marquise Goodwin. It was reported weeks ago by NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport that Goodwin has been shopped (something Kyle Shanahan intimated could happen at the Combine) and The Athletic’s Matt Barrows wrote his sense of the 49ers’ second-round tender was because of interest elsewhere:
“The 49ers knew another team(s) was circling Breida, so they tendered him with the thought that they could trade him later. My initial thought was that they’d trade Breida for, say, a mid-round draft pick. But I suppose a trade during the draft is possible, too.”
With that in mind, here’s a look at who the 49ers could potentially trade and what to expect in return, via the draft. It’s not pretty:
Marquise Goodwin: 7th or conditional 6th-round pick, 2021
Why would any team trade for Goodwin? That’s not harsh, that’s a serious question. He might be a better option to get a backup player for another position, or in a deal to move up a few picks, say from the late sixth to the early sixth/late fifth for a team that wants speed and depth at wide receiver, like Green Bay.
But on his own, Goodwin is a player who spent the end of the season on injured reserve with chronic knee/ankle issues and who wasn’t permitted with the team for the Super Bowl affairs (not the only one, but some players on injured reserve were present for media events), and who griped about it on social media.
His best season was three years ago, and he’s had a dramatic decline since then. He has been inactive for 15 games over the last two seasons. He makes $4.91 million this year and $7.63 million next year, with $625k in dead cap in each season. What’s the selling point? Speed? Production three years ago?
He played in 9 games, with 12 catches for 186 yards and 1 TD last season. Not the most enticing offer.
If you get anything for Goodwin, you take it, because teams know the 49ers will just cut him if/when they have to. The conditional part of a draft pick return would ensure he needs to play a certain number of games, or would drop to 7th-round pick status. That’s probably too hopeful (a conditional 7th might even be more likely), but it’s the best case scenario for him.
Prediction: No team will trade for Goodwin and he’ll be cut.
Matt Breida: 6th-round pick, 2020
Breida has some value because his deal is for one year, and at his best, he is a borderline elite scat back in the NFL. That’s not saying all that much, though. He has had ankle injuries, fumble issues, didn’t play a snap in the Super Bowl and lost his starting job last year.
Perhaps more importantly, younger, cheaper running backs come by the dozens in the draft.
How many teams need a new starting running back? Maybe five: the Miami Dolphins, who have three first-round picks, two second-round picks and a third-round pick, the Buffalo Bills, who like bigger backs, the Kansas City Chiefs, who have no cap space and just beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl, and the Los Angeles Ram and Arizona Cardinals who are both division rivals. Like the Bills, the Rams prefer stronger, bowling-ball-type backs, and the Cardinals want pass-catching ability.
There are a handful of teams who could use a solid backup running back: Giants, Lions, Jaguars, Titans, Jets and all the teams above, if you believe one of the current options could become the starter.
That is a tough market for a position which has become increasingly devalued. The formula is clear. Draft a running back, see out his rookie deal, rinse, and repeat. Maybe sign a cheap veteran or two in support. From the perspective of NFL front offices, it makes little sense to trade away draft capital for a position which always has value going into the fifth round.
Why trade a fifth-round pick or above for someone who’s not verifiably elite and makes more money, and is older than someone who will effectively have to play for free for four years? The answer: you don’t.
Look through the history of the NFL’s running back trades here. Aside from some Bill O’Brien lunacy and the Colts’ mind-boggling Trent Richardson trade, running backs don’t often go for much. The Texans’ trade of a third-round pick to the Browns for Duke Johnson was an O’Brien move for a receiving-oriented running back. Johnson had come off a 201-yard rushing year (0 TD), with 429 yards and 3 TD receiving. No other general manager makes that trade.
Breida has had three-straight seasons of more than 465 yards rushing with an average of 2 TD and 634 yards per year. As a receiver, he’s averaged 187 yards per season, with 4 TD in three seasons.
The problem is, despite being only 25, he’s often injured, and diminutive in stature (5’11”, 190). He’s had consistent ankle issues and problems with fumbling the ball. He’ll also cost $3.26 million this season, more than about two-thirds of the first-round picks in this year’s draft and more than 95 percent of the players who will be drafted in one month’s time.
Maybe the Bills, who are missing a first-round and seventh-round pick (two in the sixth), say that Breida is worth a fifth-rounder. I don’t see it, but it’s not an outrageous proposition.
When you have five running backs on the roster, two of whom (Breida and Coleman) would save you substantial money with no dead cap, (plus a $6.7 million fullback), you have little leverage. Teams will rightfully expect that the 49ers will cut one of those running backs, because they have to at some point.
It’s a limited market for the least in-demand position in the NFL. That screams a sixth-round pick (like Jordan Howard in 2019 and Adrian Peterson in 2018).
Prediction: Teams wait out the 49ers to cut a running back and sign whoever it is, or someone has an injury in camp and gives up a 2021 fifth or sixth for Breida or Coleman.
Tevin Coleman: 6th-round pick, 2020
Coleman is probably a better fit for most teams than Breida. He’s got a larger frame, plays more physical, and before last season, was a reliable backfield receiving target… but he will cost $4.9 million, has only played one 16-game season and took a nose dive in production during the second half of last season.
He takes a beating as a running back and while he had some tremendous games for the 49ers, those stats overshadow that horrible second half.
Over the final nine games of the regular season, Coleman had a 3.21-yard per rush attempt average (212 yards on 66 carries) with a single touchdown. He caught 13 passes for 119 yards (last five games, had two catches for 16 yards).
He’s clearly at least an above-average, bigger option for a team looking for depth. But again, it’s the running back position. How much are you willing to pay for a guy who costs nearly $5 million, and who, like Breida, could be cut?
I would argue the value of saving $4.9 million by cutting him exceeds the value of keeping him. I believe Jeff Wilson Jr. is a more than capable replacement, and Shanahan has found undrafted gems year after year. But Shanahan is exceedingly loyal to many players, and Coleman is one of them, so I have trouble believing he’ll be traded or cut.
Prediction: Teams wait out the 49ers to cut a running back and sign whoever it is, or someone has an injury in camp and gives up a fifth or sixth for Breida or Coleman.
Dante Pettis: 6th-round pick, 2020
What an enigma Pettis is, at least for other teams looking at him. He had 11 catches for 109 yards and 2 TD last season before completely falling out of the rotation. Pettis stopped producing, and if you watch his tape, it’s clear he shies away from contact. He’s the inverse of Deebo Samuel, who embraces contact and catches the ball with aggressive hands.
It’s why, despite being one of the greatest punt returners in NCAA history, the 49ers do not use Pettis on punts. Guys are sprinting at you full speed and you need to be willing to take a devastating hit. At the moment, Pettis hasn’t shown he’s willing to do that.
The real question with him, though, is whether another team can be duped into believing it was mostly injuries and an inability to get consistent reps that held Pettis back. He’s only a third-year guy. maybe he can be a reclamation project and a change of scenery will bring the best out of him. When you watch him warm up, it’s clear he’s an athletic stud, and his hands are spectacular.
But when a player doesn’t take a single playoff snap, it’s hard to make a case that he’s worth a fifth-rounder or more. The only saving grace with Pettis is that he’s a former second-round pick and still only 24, so maybe a team ignores the fact that the 49ers just brought in Travis Benjamin and don’t view Pettis as a returner, and this theoretical team can rediscover that uber crafty guy from Washington. But it’s an incredibly deep wide receiver class, and there will be more-than-capable options, even in round five.
There’s also the added wrinkle of the 49ers trading up to get him in the second round two years ago, and the optics of trading him away before his third season for a sixth-round pick. That doesn’t seem like something this front office, nor Shanahan, are willing to admit to as a mistake just yet. He’d be the 49ers’ version of Tavon Austin (traded to the Cowboys by the Rams for a 6th-round pick in 2018).
Just as crucially, he’ll also carry a substantial dead cap penalty if he’s traded, and the 49ers aren’t lunatics for believing it’s still too early to give up on him. He has one more training camp to prove himself.
Prediction: He makes the roster as the final wide receiver option, in part because of his dead cap hit if cut. He’s cut the next offseason if he doesn’t improve substantially.
Solomon Thomas: 6th-round pick, 2020
Thomas’ low value is a factor of production (peaked at 3.0 sacks his rookie year) and cost ($9.05 million salary this season). What position does he play? Is he effective? These questions are complete unknowns.
What’s clear is that if Thomas finds some level of consistency, he can start this season in place of DeForest Buckner. I realize that sounds insane, but Dee Ford usually does not start (mostly used on pass downs), D.J. Jones slots at nose tackle, and Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa start on the outside.
That other interior spot is currently up for grabs between Thomas, Jullian Taylor and Kentavius Street, who have all shown moments of brilliance, but struggled with consistency and injuries.
To trade away Thomas would require the 49ers to admit their failure in a former No. 3 overall pick, take a $4.65 million dead cap hit, and lose further depth on the defensive line. I don’t see them doing that for a sixth-rounder, nor do I see another team offering more than that.
Prediction: Starts a career-high number of games for the 49ers as a 3-technique. Shows flashes, but still doesn’t display positional clarity. Signs somewhere else in free agency, has a fairly long career if he wants it, because of those flashes.
C.J. Beathard: Nothing, or 7th-round pick, 2021
The case for Beathard is: a team gets a quarterback injury, they get desperate, and the 49ers need to clear a roster spot. The problem is that, like with Coleman, Shanahan is very loyal to Beathard and, like with Pettis, you’d be admitting, by trading him for effectively nothing, that you made a mistake by drafting him that high.
That much is already apparent, though the team did do its best job selling that there was a legitimate competition between him and Nick Mullens. Maybe it was legitimate for as long as Shanahan said, but from watching the progression through camp, it was clear how much further ahead Mullens was than Beathard.
Prediction: He makes the roster again, doesn’t get traded.
Nick Mullens: 4th-round pick, 2020
Mullens is the 49ers’ most valuable trade asset, but if Garoppolo gets hurt, you still have a season, and a chance to win a Super Bowl, with him around. His trade cost, from the 49ers’ perspective, is probably higher than what anyone is willing to offer.
But if Garoppolo only went for a second (the Browns were willing to offer much more than that, but Bill Belichick effectively gift-wrapped him to the 49ers), how could Mullens be worth that?
The 49ers aren’t wrong to value Mullens that highly. There were multiple days in training camp in which he looked like the best quarterback on the roster. Granted — and this is a major caveat — that was against an ACL-recovering Garoppolo, who only improved as time went on. Mullens could immediately compete for a job in a place like Los Angeles (Chargers) or New England, but why give someone like Bill Belichick a tool like that?
His value is probably highest to the 49ers, unless someone is willing to offer a second-round pick. That seems doubtful.
Prediction: Remains the Jimmy Garoppolo safety valve for the next two years.
