Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Shortly after the 2020 season ended in agony, with Austin Slater punched out to finish off a three-game losing streak when just one win was needed to keep playing, Farhan Zaidi acknowledged the Giants took a step but now need to take another.
No longer is playing meaningful games — and all 60 were meaningful last season — a mark of success. The next step is the postseason, untouched since 2016 and for the duration of the Zaidi regime.
An offseason later, that goal has not changed even if the format — and odds — of the postseason has.
No longer can they hover around .500 and believe they have a chance of sneaking in. At least not at this moment, as MLB is operating under the belief the playoffs will revert to the five-teams-per-league structure that would be crushing to NL West teams that are not the Dodgers and Padres.
Last season’s determination that the playoffs would be expanded was unveiled minutes before Opening Day. The Giants are hoping for another 11th-hour dose of hope.
“A lot of this is still up in the air as long as the 2021 playoff format isn’t finalized,” Zaidi said on a Zoom call last week.
And yet.
“We’re in this to try to win as many games as possible,” he added. “And the playoffs are definitely the goal.”
It’s a lofty one. Fangraphs, which is actually more bullish than some, is pegging the Giants as having a 7 percent chance of reaching the postseason. San Francisco might be the division favorite if it were in the NL Central, but the NL West has a pair of teams that could reach triple-digit victories. The NL East is plenty deep, and it would be surprising if two of the Mets, Braves, Nationals and Phillies did not reach the postseason.
That leaves the Giants watching the Padres add, among others, Blake Snell and Yu Darvish and the reigning champion Dodgers infuse Trevor Bauer into their rotation. That leaves the Giants hoping for a format change on the eve of their pitchers’ and catchers’ first official workout in Scottsdale.
It all gets started Wednesday, with the first full-squad workout arriving Monday. The Giants look stronger on paper than they did last season, but their flex doesn’t begin to resemble the mammoths in Southern California.
Their biggest addition comes from a return rather than an add, Buster Posey trading kids books for scouting reports as he opts back in. Curt Casali, who posted an .866 OPS last season with Cincinnati, is set to back him up for a group that looks vastly improved from last year, when Giants catchers ranked 25th in baseball in OPS (.591).
Can Posey play 81 games at catcher? One hundred? More?
“I think we’ll just go into it with that level of thoughtfulness,” Gabe Kapler said Friday. “Just understanding that he didn’t play last year, but also understanding he’s in really good physical condition. And then probably most importantly, we’ll be talking to Buster about his progression, talking to him about what he thinks his workload should be and just listening carefully to what the signals of his body are telling us.”
Around the infield, there is not a loss but a significant add in Tommy La Stella, who produced more than double the number of walks (27) as strikeouts (12) last season. The Giants had lacked a lefty bat to spell both Evan Longoria and Donovan Solano/Wilmer Flores against righties, and Jason Vosler, picked up from San Diego, is further depth in that department. There will be plenty of eyes on Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford, too, after they resurrected their careers under the new hitting minds last year. Can they keep it up?
The same should be asked of the Giants’ outfield, which was a surprise weapon last season. The group’s combined .815 OPS was the fifth best in baseball, led by Mike Yastrzemski, who earned MVP votes, a nicely put-together and executed left-field platoon of Alex Dickerson and Darin Ruf and Mauricio Dubon holding his own with his bat and glove in center. Slater, too, looked like a potential star before injuries derailed his season. The group is back in full, with LaMonte Wade Jr. added as another lefty hitter and Jaylin Davis and Steven Duggar still awaiting breakthroughs.
While the Giants’ offense is encouraging, if not quite inspiring, their season likely will be decided by the rotation. Kevin Gausman looked like a front-of-the-rotation pitcher and has been returned with a qualifying offer, but there is little of certainty trailing him. Johnny Cueto’s 5.40 ERA last season was the second worst in baseball among qualified starters. Anthony DeSclafani did not pitch enough to qualify, but his 7.22 ERA was worse. Alex Wood was hurt by injuries, too, and pitched just 12 2/3 regular-season innings. The projected fifth starter as of today is Logan Webb, who has promise but also had a 5.47 ERA last season. There is upside, but also a ton of downside in the shallow group.
The bullpen corps is far deeper. There will be guaranteed spots for Matt Wisler, Jake McGee and Jarlin Garcia, likely slots for Trevor Gott, Tyler Rogers, Reyes Moronta and perhaps Rule 5 pick Dedniel Nunez and another dozen solid candidates in the wings. The bullpen got better as 2020 got longer, and it won’t be the problem if the Giants’ 2021 goes astray.
There are plenty of improvements around the roster. The problem for the Giants is, as of now, there is not a playoff system that would reward mere progress, but only a big leap they have not taken.