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There is one item atop the 49ers’ to-do list: re-sign Trent Williams.
Everything else—an improvement at backup (or starting) quarterback, sorting out the secondary, improving the defensive line rotation—follows that. Williams is arguably the best tackle in the NFL and while the other question marks, like whether the 49ers will draft a quarterback, corner, or edge rusher, are substantial, and perhaps just as crucial in the long term, they can only be answered once the Williams question is answered.
I’ve examined what a Trent Williams deal would likely cost here, and even at age 33 (but with a year off, having reduced the wear on his body), it’s going to be something like four years, $82 million.
But thanks to a swathe of failed bonuses, the 49ers now have more than $23 million in cap space to work with (Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer reported the number is at roughly $28 million, but it’s unclear whether that factors in rookie contracts). Essentially, the 2020 cap had factored in about $11-plus million in likely-to-be-earned (LTBE) bonus money, which defined as bonuses that would be triggered if players accomplished the same benchmarks as the prior season.
Because most of the 49ers’ core was gutted, those LTBE incentives weren’t conveyed, and the 49ers reap the rewards of their failed 2020 season now.
Still, even with that extra money, cash is still fairly tight, and the 49ers will probably try to structure a deal for Williams in year one below $18 million, possibly in the $15-16 million range.
The NFL could release the 2021 salary cap on Tuesday, but some reports say that the player’s union wants to wait until new, reportedly lucrative TV deals are signed, and increase this year’s cap, meaning the new cap figure could take up to a week to become official. While the 49ers now have the money to compete with other suitors and Williams’ preference to stay, they might not be willing to compete if a team like the Colts offers Williams $25 million per year.
Luckily for the 49ers, one major suitor, the Jacksonville Jaguars (who have the most cap space of any team), just franchise-tagged their tackle Cam Robinson on Tuesday, likely removing them from the pursuit.
Top-tier tackles never make it to free agency, so while it’s likely he re-signs, nothing is guaranteed. The 49ers removed their safety valve, the franchise tag, as a gesture of goodwill to Williams at the start of the season when they guaranteed him some bonus money.
So, if Williams leaves, then what?
Rashawn Slater. That’s what.
In these early months of the year, as the draft creeps up slowly, it is sometimes tough to cut through the flotsam of draft takes. Everyone has a favorite, a sleeper, someone who’s grossly undervalued.
You can skip all that with Slater.
The Northwestern tackle opted out the 2020 season after the Big 10’s initial decision (which was later reversed) for a spring season, but is viewed as one of the more sure things in the draft. Everything he’s put on tape is clinical. His first step off the line almost always beats defensive linemen, and more often than not, he has the quickest first step of any player on the field. And that’s in every aspect; he’s quick whether that’s getting into his pass set, cracking down on a run block or moving to the second level.
It’s difficult to find anyone in the draft with cleaner footwork, who fights and counters as effectively with their hands, or who gets to the second level at incisive angles from the tackle position like Slater does.
His most significant tape in 2019 was stifling Chase Young, the NFL’s reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year. Here are some of the highlights from that game (click here for the full, non-slowed-down game tape):
If that’s not enough to get the blood pumping, there’s also this:
Slater is OT-1 pic.twitter.com/zMKTW9Dmos
— Duke Manyweather (@BigDuke50) March 9, 2021
There can be concerns with smart players like Slater from smart schools like Northwestern for being “too smart.”
That’s in the sense that football is an absolutely brutal sport and you need to be a little insane to play it. If you’re wondering if Slater has that sort of necessary “crazy” factor football players generally need to have to put their bodies on the line, that video is cause for optimism. So was his answer when asked how much he missed hitting people this last season after opting out.
“A lot,” Slater said. “But after today it’s no more 40-[yard dashes], stuff like that. It’s all football.”
As far as draft projections go, fit can sometimes be grossly overlooked. Someone like Virginia Tech’s Christian Darrisaw — also a projected first-round tackle and a true behemoth — might make a great pass-protecting and power-blocking tackle, but he’s not really in the 49ers’ mold.
With the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan, we know what they like at tackle; athletic freaks who can beat their man in run blocking and erase second-level players. That was the bet with Mike McGlinchey, and though he regressed substantially in a too-slim frame as a pass blocker last season, he still remained elite when in space.
Trent Williams is often referred to as an athletic freak, including by Slater. At 6’5″, 310 pounds, he put up startling, dare I say terrifying numbers for an offensive lineman at the NFL Combine with a 4.81-second 40-yard dash, a 34.5-inch vertical and 113-inch broad jump. The 49ers love using raw stats to back up what they see on tape, and they love — and I mean love — guys with elite broad jump numbers who have that quick first step.
Slater is exactly in that mold. There is no NFL Combine this year, so the only available numbers are from pro days. Slater’s Northwestern held its pro day on Tuesday, where he, as expected, looked like a freak athlete.
His 1.68-second 10-yard split, which is the more important number teams tend to look at for offensive linemen (i.e., how quick does he trigger and get moving off the line), would place him in the 91st percentile of offensive tackles, per Mockdraftable.
His 33 bench press reps? The 94th percentile.
Three-cone? 87th percentile.
40-yard dash? The 97th percentile.
Rashawn Slater Pro Day:
• HT: 6042
• WT: 304
• Arm: 33”
• 40: 4.88 / 4.94
• 10-yard split: 1.68
• Bench: 33 reps
• 3 Cone: 7.48— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) March 9, 2021
For Slater, there were three main questions about his height, arm length, and strength. He firmly, definitively, answered the question of his strength with the 33 bench press reps, saying that he’s spent most of 2020 working on improving his physical tools and honing his already formidable technical work with legendary NFL offensive line guru Duke Manyweather.
He came in above 6’4″, which while on the lower end, is not a major concern. His arm length, however, is short, putting him in the ninth percentile. Slater said that NFL teams told him they didn’t view that as a major concern. Former All-Pro tackle Joe Thomas said that arm length is a “worthless measurement”:
Former All Pro Left Tackle Joe Thomas talking about arm length for offensive line prospects and why that measurement really isn’t that important
Very interesting perspective and something to consider when evaluating Northwestern OL Rashawn Slater pic.twitter.com/Dw7QQysmVR
— Jordan Elliott (@splash_cousin) February 26, 2021
Per The Athletic’s Matt Barrows, the 49ers were on hand for Slater’s pro day and Slater confirmed that he met with the 49ers. Perhaps the most intriguing thing Slater said was when asked who he models his game after and sees himself as having similar traits.
There were five names Slater referred to: the Dallas Cowboys’ Tyron Smith and Zack Martin, the New Orleans Saints’ Terron Armstead, and the 49ers’ Joe Staley and Trent Williams.
“Joe’s a guy who’s kind of like me; maybe not seen as having the prototypical size of a left tackle and yet he was still extremely effective and just the way he was able to play,” Slater said. “He was a master technician. And then Trent is a freak athlete, who’s also an amazing technician, does some awesome stuff with his hands.”
The question with Slater will not be if the 49ers have interest. Tackle, along with defensive line positions, is one of the few areas that this regime has shown it’s willing to target early in the draft. Based off how they value certain positions, and assuming they stick at 12, only a few positions are likely in play: quarterback, tackle and defensive end, with corner being an outside chance. Kyle Pitts is also a mold-shattering option there, too.
Some reports suggest teams have Slater ranked above Penei Sewell, as does NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah. I don’t believe that’s true, at least not for most teams who will be in position to draft Sewell. But, Slater could easily go in the top 11 picks, and it might even be more likely than not.
So, if Slater is there at 12 and Williams is gone, he’s going to the 49ers, unless Sewell is on the board. You can probably bank on that. But if Williams leaves, every team will also know the 49ers are prioritizing tackle, and that means they’ll likely have to trade up to get him.
In any case, it still remains likely that Williams stays. So what happens then?
One intriguing scenario is drafting Slater at 12, and sticking him at right guard while you assess Mike McGlinchey for another year, eventually moving Slater to right tackle. He’ll certainly be cheaper than McGlinchey in the short term, which McGlinchey’s fifth-year option nearing decision time.
Slater’s size and length have led some to questions whether he might actually make a better guard, and Slater both expressed confidence at tackle, but left open the option to be moved around. He’s clearly got the ability to play tackle, but his size gives you flexibility, which could be invaluable in the short term.
“I think I’m the best tackle in the draft,” Slater said. “I have a really high level of confidence about that. But at the same time, I’m a team player. So if the team wants to play me at guard, so be it. I’m all for it. As long as that’s what’s best for the team, I’m happy to play whatever position they need me at.”
If Slater is on the board at No. 12, do not be surprised to see the 49ers take a swing on him. They nearly took Tristan Wirfs last year before their one-pick swap with the Buccaneers, which netted them Javon Kinlaw, and aided their trade up for Brandon Aiyuk. Slater is in play regardless of what happens with Williams.
