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The 49ers concluded their 2021 NFL Draft with eight new players, two-thirds of whom were running backs, guards or corners. They also, as you might have heard, drafted their quarterback of the present and the future in Trey Lance. ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. had some issues with the 49ers’ draft, giving them a B-.
Only three teams — the Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers — received worse grades, all of whom got C+ grades from Kiper Jr.
Kiper Jr.’s logic, as he writes here, is that for the Lance trade to be a “surefire win,” Lance has to play early. Will it matter if he wins them a Super Bowl in year three but doesn’t start this year? Apparently not, according to that school of thought. Here’s his full explanation:
“Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch can keep a secret, huh? After the 49ers went all-in on a quarterback — trading up nine spots to No. 3 overall and giving up the No. 12 pick, plus next year’s first- and third-rounders and their 2023 first-rounder — I really thought they were targeting Mac Jones. Nearly everyone I talked to in the league over the past few weeks thought the same. Instead, they went with the high ceiling of 20-year-old Trey Lance, who might need some time to adapt to the speed of the NFL but has superstar potential. Here’s an interesting list Lance now joins: Since the 2006 draft, six quarterbacks have been taken in the first round with fewer than 20 college starts: Mitchell Trubisky (13), Cam Newton (14), Dwayne Haskins Jr. (14), Mark Sanchez (16), Kyler Murray (17) and Ryan Tannehill (19).”
Note: Kiper Jr. inexplicably leaves Jones off this above list, who had 18 career starts for Alabama. Anyway, his explanation continues, with his main gripes the Day 2 selections, with all three of Aaron Banks, Trey Sermon and Ambry Thomas “reaches” by his boards.
“Lance made all 17 of his starts against FCS opponents. Shanahan and Lynch are betting on the upside of Lance, who takes care of the football, knows when to pull the ball and run and can make every throw, but he is my fifth-ranked quarterback in this class. This is the definition of a boom-or-bust prospect, and now the Niners don’t have first-round picks in 2022 or 2023. For this to be declared a surefire win, Lance needs to play well — early. I don’t know if that will happen, and Jimmy Garoppolo might have to stick on the roster as the bridge. (Props to Jimmy G for showing class as San Francisco drafted his replacement.)
I wasn’t high on the 49ers’ Day 2 haul, as Aaron Banks (48), Trey Sermon (88) and Ambry Thomas (102) all were reaches on my board. I watched all of Banks’ snaps at Notre Dame, and I’m not sure if he is a definite rookie starter. Sermon is a patient runner without top-tier suddenness, and I was surprised he went here and this high based on Shanahan’s past getting production out of undrafted backs. Talanoa Hufanga (180) doesn’t have great measurables, but he could find a role on the defense. Running back Elijah Mitchell (194) ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at his pro day.
I’m really curious to see how early Lance gets thrown into the fire, because teams rarely wait to play first-round quarterbacks these days. The careers of this quarterback class will be linked for years to come, and Niners fans obviously trust Shanahan to groom Lance. Potential isn’t the issue with Lance, so let’s see if Shanahan can get him to his ceiling.”
To recap, Kiper Jr. sees the downside of the 49ers draft as follows; Lance has too many question marks and may not start in year one, so that wouldn’t be a “surefire win,” for his selection, and the 49ers picked all of their Day 2 players too early.
