Maybe it’s just a feature of the modern NFL, where chaos and unpredictability seems to be the norm, that it’s difficult to a get a clear read on what teams are capable of. The 49ers are certainly exist in that vein. What is their ceiling?
There wasn’t much cause for optimism with that question throughout much of the season. After that four-game losing streak, and following the Colt McCoy-led embarrassment of a loss, there seemed clear evidence that the ceiling was probably a playoff berth, or a wild-card win.
Maybe that’s still the case, but it’s a tougher and tougher question to answer when you look around the league.
The Tennessee Titans are 9-4, but lost to both the Jets and Jaguars (in consecutive weeks), while also smacking the Chiefs 27-3, but are likely without Derrick Henry the rest of the way. The Buffalo Bills — who began the season 5-2 — are suddenly 7-6, stuck inside the scrap heap of the AFC’s Wild Card picture.
San Francisco is no different, but unlike the Bills — who have four other 7-6 teams to contend with — they are fighting five sub-.500 teams, against a few of whom they hold tiebreakers, making their path decidedly easier.
There are a handful of teams above the 49ers in the NFL hierarchy. Arizona has beaten them twice, and convincingly. Tampa Bay is giving Arizona a run for the first seed and is star-studded at just about every spot on the field (and has the bonus of Richard Sherman, who’s well-versed in Jimmy Garoppolo).
Kansas City and New England look like bona fide contenders, and we’ll get a look at the 49ers-Titans in 12 days time, albeit on a short week in Tennessee, which favors the hosts.
Regardless of how these theoretical rankings look, the 49ers are, somehow, a contender. That seems insane after the start of the season, but this is a team, warts and all, that has to be taken seriously.
As underwhelming as he often is, Jimmy Garoppolo led two game-winning drives on Sunday. He led what should have been one against the Green Bay Packers and was a “power forward” arm swat away from a game-tying touchdown in Seattle.
He is flawed — see the two Seattle interceptions, and the sack-fumble he committed on Sunday — and he is limited — see his deep shot attempt to Travis Benjamin that forced Benjamin to wait on the ball — but he is normally effective.
He is effective because his offensive weapons rival any other group in the league. Deebo Samuel won’t win MVP because he’s not a quarterback, but he’s doing things no one else is doing, crossing the 1,000-yard receiving threshold, with five receiving and now six rushing touchdowns.
George Kittle is back to playing like the best tight end in the league, which is not something we’ve been able to say with confidence since 2019. He just became the first tight end in NFL history to have 150-plus receiving yards and a touchdown catch in consecutive games.
Brandon Aiyuk has finally found his stride, and has been incorporated more frequently on shorter slant patterns and screens, not just the deep routes that Garoppolo doesn’t like to target. He walked it off on Sunday with pure balance and athleticism.
When Elijah Mitchell returns to the backfield, it will be with a reinvigorated Jeff Wilson Jr. buoying him.
That is a recipe which is enough to compete with a lot of teams, even with a fairly weak right side of the offensive line.
Sunday’s performance could have gone either way, and the way the 49ers have stumbled through the second halves of games offensively over the last two weeks is not a viable way to proceed through the rest of the season.
They have also regressed on third downs over the past two games, going 3-for-10 against Seattle and 5-for-13 against Cincinnati. Samuel wasn’t available against Seattle, and wasn’t used on a handful of third downs this week.
The offense needs to be far steadier regardless of what period of the game it is, and this team needs to return to converting third downs more regularly.
But the offense was clutch twice, and against one of the more impressive receiving groups in the league, with a threadbare secondary, the defense held its own. The defensive line sacked Joe Burrow five times, and really six times, if not for one of Ambry Thomas’ two illegal hands to the face penalties.
Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt are playing outstanding football, Fred Warner looks quite a bit more like himself — though Azeez Al-Shaair’s injury is a major worry, with no clear return timeline for Dre Greenlaw — and has been able to mask some of the backend flaws on defense.
Right now, you have an offense with all of its weapons firing at the right time, with a final stretch of four games against teams with poor middle linebackers. Given Garoppolo’s proclivity towards throwing over the middle of the field, that’s a position that can be make-or-break for him.
At 7-6 with games remaining against the Falcons and Texans (and a Rams team they’ve beaten five times in a row), it would be stunning if the 49ers did not make the playoffs.
Beyond that, they clearly have the capability to beat any team not named the Cardinals or Buccaneers. They were one drive away from beating the Packers, have whooped up on the Rams, and the Cowboys, talented as they are, haven’t done much to sell that they are legitimate contenders, yet.
Can they beat the Cardinals or Buccaneers? With a brutal corner situation, an Azeez Al-Shaair injury worry, it’s unclear.
The determining factor is, and always will be, Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco can win in spite of him, and work around him, but hiding him, like in the 2019 playoffs, is only viable for so long, and great teams usually expose his limitations. A Super Bowl appearance is unlikely under his stewardship, let alone a win.
But given the defense’s persistent stinginess, and wealth of talent on offense, it would be foolish to count the 49ers out out of any conversation.