Thanks to a not so sterling performance from Jimmy Garoppolo on Thursday night, the 49ers wasted the ability to control their own destiny.
That loss to Tennessee, defined by wasted opportunities, interceptions and then poor defensive coverage in the second half, means that San Francisco needs some help to make the playoffs.
Currently, the 49ers sit sixth in the NFC playoff picture, one spot behind the woebegone Arizona Cardinals who have lost three straight, and ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) who San Francisco holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over.
But the New Orleans Saints (7-7) and Eagles can throw this whole picture into chaos at the 49ers’ expense. If both the Saints and Eagles win out, put simply, the 49ers cannot make the playoffs.
That’s due to a three-way tiebreaker negating the head-to-head tiebreaker the 49ers have over the Eagles.
In a three-team tie, the tiebreaker goes first to conference record. The Eagles’ 8-4 record would top the 49ers’ and Saints’ 6-5 record.
Next up would be record against common opponents. This is where it all gets very funny. And by funny, we mean in a Shakespearean “comedy is tragedy” sense.
You may remember that the 49ers lost a couple games to the now 5-10 Seattle Seahawks, who are currently slated to convey their first-round pick to Robert Saleh’s Jets at seventh overall. As it turns out, those losses (plus a last-second loss to the Green Bay Packers) could keep the 49ers out of the playoffs in this scenario.
Here’s how that works. Both San Francisco and New Orleans have faced the following overlapping teams: Seahawks, Falcons, Eagles, Packers.
The 49ers’ record against those teams is 2-4. If the Saints win out, they’d have a 3-3 record against those opponents.
Now, for both the Eagles and Saints to win out, they’d have to beat some very compelling teams.
The Saints face a completely reborn Miami Dolphins squad Monday night which has won six-straight games after a 1-6 start to the season.
They finish the year with the Panthers and Falcons, though, neither of whom are seriously compelling opponents. Carolina’s defense is at least impressive and the Falcons are such a cosmic joke (and somehow still in the hunt at 7-8) that the could always win a game by accident.
For the Eagles, it’s a matchup with the just-demolished Washington Football Team, then the Dallas Cowboys, who have already clinched the NFC East and may rest some folks in Week 18.
To sum this all up, the Dolphins provide the 49ers’ best chance at avoiding disaster. Of course, San Francisco would still have to win their last two games against the Texans and Rams to clinch a playoff spot if the Saints lose. None of these scenarios are out of the question, which is apropos of this bizarre, 17-game schedule.
