When the San Francisco 49ers traded away three first-round picks and a future third-round pick to acquire Trey Lance, they were undertaking a gambit which would have failed in many cases.
Instead of trading Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers saw his knowledge of and capability in running Kyle Shanahan’s offense, coupled with the faith he had gained from veterans in the locker room, and determined he was still the team’s best option at quarterback.
Lance had played one game in roughly two years after only one full college season in the Missouri Valley Conference.
But even with as raw as Lance was, his talent was so stunning that it drew questions. Was Garoppolo actually the best option? Would Lance be used in certain situations and take over at some point?
Kyle Shanahan stuck with Garoppolo.
But when the 49ers’ season verged on catastrophe, after a four-game skid and then an embarrassing loss to the Colt McCoy-led Cardinals, even Shanahan’s tone shifted, intimating that if things continued further sideways Lance could take over.
“When we were 3-5, that was kind of the breaking point where I knew it was getting close,” Shanahan admitted during his end of year press conference on Tuesday. “I know everyone else thought it was there, and I agreed it was getting close to there. But once we won that game and went to 4-5 and ended up winning four in a row, I thought we had a chance. And when you’re doing that you don’t want to mess with the team.”
It never got there. And from that Week 10 win over the Rams on, the discussion over whether Lance might take over slowly evaporated. Shanahan said he couldn’t get an adequate feel for the situational packages that might have highlighted his unique skillset in concert with Garoppolo.
This maddening season ended with an NFC Championship berth. It was awfully close to a ticket to the Super Bowl. Garoppolo pretty clearly helped his trade value, and at least did not ding it, given the consideration he was playing through a thumb and shoulder injury.
The value of those injuries will be weighted differently by different parties, but he was clearly part of the reason the 49ers got to that point. He’s also a major reason why that run is as far as it went and Lance is on deck.
But the fact that San Francisco was able to manage that situation should be heralded. There are a litany of front offices and ownership groups around the league in which it would have been impossible. Brian Flores’ class action lawsuit against the NFL, and his claim that owner Stephen Ross tried to offer him $100,000 per loss are among many instances of that being borne out.
What Shanahan and John Lynch pointed to on Tuesday is the trust within the organization from the top down. In most circumstances, having an owner who trusts his coach and general manager is the difference between consistently successful organizations and dysfunctional ones.
That trust was the secret sauce of this gamble.
“You’re confident because of the building you’re in and the people you’re with,” Shanahan said Tuesday. “I was. When you’re dealing with John [Lynch], a guy who’s not gonna just come in as soon as something goes bad and tell me the opposite — which you deal with a lot in this league — same with the owner…
“And that’s why I like being here. Because I feel out of any place I’ve ever been, that’s never an issue [here]. I always feel like we can do that 100 percent. Doesn’t mean you’re always going to be right. But when you work at it and you’ve got good people, talented people, I feel like you’re right the majority of the time.
Lynch concurred and highlighted the dispositions of both quarterbacks.
The 49ers landed on two quarterbacks with “Midwestern values.” It has been evident from the jump that both are deeply competitive, but not to a fault. There’s sincerity that built a friendship which Lance said Monday will last for the rest of his life.
(Shanahan and Lynch’s full answers are below)
Garoppolo even likened the relationship he built with Lance to the one he had with the just-retired Tom Brady.
“It felt like me and Tom at times,” Garoppolo said. “I would think to myself like, ‘Damn, I used to be the young guy in this.’”
Unlike in New England, the 49ers are going with the young guy.
What follows now is a likely surgery on Garoppolo’s thumb, though he said he hopes to avoid that. After that come the phone calls.
Given how Lynch praised the communication between the 49ers and Garoppolo’s representatives, there is an expectation that he will go to a competitive, win-now team.
“I just want to go to a place where they want to win,” Garoppolo said.
And he’s likely to get his wish. The odds-on favorites — at 4-to-1 — for his next destinations are Pittsburgh, Washington and Tampa Bay, per BetOnline.
As the front office navigates that, Lance will take some time off.
Shanahan said he hasn’t had time off since before the NFL Draft. After that rest, though, he’ll spend time in Southern California in an effort to work on his mechanics and throwing motion. At some point, he’ll rendezvous with Brandon Aiyuk, and likely other receivers.
But there’s cause for optimism based on what Lance showed on tape and behind the scenes.
Trent Williams called him a “generational talent” who he saw developing over the course of the year. Shanahan echoed that.
“Just being around him all year, I thought he had the ability we saw in college,” Shanahan said. “We know it was at a different level. We know we were very limited on the amount he got to play especially missing the last year with COVID [cancellations].
“So you got to go off what you see on tape and believing in the person and we did. Having him here for a whole year, I feel stronger about that. He’s got the ability to do it, he’s got the mind to do it. And I think he’s the type of person who can handle all the stuff that goes with it.”
We are now, clearly, about to enter the Trey Lance era. There will unquestionably be drama, overreactions, and probably a stretch where some fans wish Garoppolo was still around. But the message on Tuesday was that Garoppolo is headed elsewhere, and the 49ers chips are still all-in on Lance.
