In mid-November, the Giants had a rotation of Logan Webb and — no offense to the Sean Hjelle, Sammy Long and Tyler Beede hives — Logan Webb only.
It was still very early in the offseason, but San Francisco’s rotation uncertainty gave SF’s string-pullers plenty of work to do.
Much has changed since then. Farhan Zaidi and Scott Harris’ front office brought back Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani and added righty Alex Cobb before the 99-day lockout commenced. Then when the work stoppage ended, they made their splashiest move yet: signing Cy Young candidate Carlos Rodón.
Rodón’s deal is reportedly two years, $44 million with an opt-out after 2022. The Giants rotation now features five capable arms, with Webb and Rodón having ace potential.
Given the abbreviated spring training that will adversely affect starters and valid injury concerns with Wood, Cobb and Rodón, the Giants could seek out additional rotation arms. They certainly have the payroll flexibility to do so.
But until then, here are some stats to know about Rodón, the newest Giants ace.
95.4 mph
Rodón’s four-seam fastball averages 95.4 mph, and that number was likely brought down when his velocity dipped toward the end of last season.
The southpaw’s fastball was the most dominant pitch in baseball last year. Yep. Better than Gausman’s fastball, Burnes’ cutter, and anything deGrom hurled.
Shane McClanahan of the Rays was the only left-handed starter to throw his fastball harder than the Miami native last year.
Rodón delivered his fastball 58.6% of the time in 2021, leaning on his best pitch more than ever before. His fastball-slider combination led to whiffs on 33.2% of swings. It helped him post career bests in both strikeout (12.6 per nine innings) and walk rate (2.4/9).
Rodón throws gas, and not the $6 per gallon kind.
79 DRA-
Deserved Runs Allowed Minus is Baseball Prospectus’ catch-all pitching metric. It isolates a pitcher’s effectiveness from quality of opponent, defense and park factors. DRA- is scaled so 100 is average, and lower numbers indicate better performance.
New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom is projected to record a league-best 37 DRA- — well ahead of Corbin Burnes’ second-best 61. BP pegs Rodón with a 79 DRA- in 2022. That would be tied for 13th best among starters with Justin Verlander, Walker Buehler and Zack Wheeler.
In 2021, Rodón’s breakout year, he posted a 69 DRA-. For reference, Logan Webb’s DRA- last year was 71, and that’s expected to rise to 88 this season.
The nerds think Rodón, not Webb, will be San Francisco’s ace in 2022.
$44 million
Rodón’s contract is reportedly worth $44 million over two years. It’s the most money Zaidi has handed out to a pitcher since taking over the Giants in 2018.
That average annual value of roughly $22 million is the same as what Toronto gave Kevin Gausman. Except Gausman earned a five-year deal with the Blue Jays, something San Francisco has been allergic to with starters.
The Giants never made Gausman an offer, presumably because he outperformed another short-term deal. Anthony DeSclafani’s three-year, $36 million contract is the longest this current front office has doled out to a starter.
165 IP
Rodón set his career-high in innings pitched in 2016 — his second big league season — with 165. He hasn’t sniffed that mark since.
Bicep bursitis, shoulder inflammation, a sprained wrist and Tommy John surgery has limited Rodón’s availability during his career. Even last year, he posted just 132.2 innings, which would have been fifth-most on the Giants.
He was mostly healthy in the first half of the season, but shoulder issues flared up and sidelined him in August. His velocity dropped off, though he did rear back to return to high-90s form in the NLDS.
Health issues are the biggest concern with Rodón, as well as Alex Cobb and Alex Wood. The Giants have shown they can manage arms well and keep them healthy, but injury potential gives the Giants’ rotation a high level of variance.
1 GS
Traditionally, GS means Games Started on the back of a player’s baseball card. But in this case, it’s a fancy advanced stat pioneered by KNBR.com: Good Seasons.
Rodón has one (1) Good Season under his belt. Injuries and command issues — likely the confluence of both — limited the third overall pick in 2014 to an underwhelming start to his career.
ERA+ is a metric that compares a pitcher’s ERA to the league average while adjusting for ballpark. Before 2021, Rodón was habitually average (a 100 ERA+ is average).
| Year | ERA+ |
| 2015 | 104 |
| 2016 | 100 |
| 2017 | 104 |
| 2018 | 102 |
| 2019 | 89 |
| 2020 | 56 |
| 2021 | 183 |
The unproven nature of Rodón’s career arc is the main reason why, despite being the best pitcher available on the open market, the Giants could snag him for a two-year deal with an opt out after the first.
Last season was Rodón’s breakout year, but it was also the first and only in which he really excelled. One is also the number of seasons Rodón will likely spend with the Giants if he has another Good Season in 2022. For the Giants, that would still be an unabashed win.
