The 49ers held onto Deebo Samuel through Thursday’s first round of the NFL Draft, but there was another blockbuster involving a star wide receiver.
A.J. Brown was traded by the Tennessee Titans to the Philadelphia Eagles for the No. 18 and No. 101 picks. Additionally, the Eagles reportedly signed Brown to a four-year contract extension worth $100 million with $57 million guaranteed.
Like Samuel, Brown, 24, is represented by Torry Dandy of CAA. Also like Samuel, Brown made it clear that he wanted a lucrative extension this offseason, although it was not reported that Brown had requested a trade like Samuel has done with the 49ers.
Brown would seem to be a pretty good comp value-wise when compared with Deebo. Brown is two years younger, but is also coming off a far less productive season than Samuel. Still, Brown was a Pro Bowler in 2020, had over 1,000 yards receiving in his first two seasons, and is considered one of the best young receivers in the NFL.
So what does Brown’s deal mean for Samuel?
For starters, we have a firm idea of the type of deal that Samuel and Dandy are searching for. Brown’s extension averages out to $25 million a year, which is the same figure that Samuel has previously reported to have been seeking.
That seems like an overpay for Brown, who’s market value was around $22.7 million according to Spotrac. It is, however, somewhat in line with Samuel’s projected market value of $24.4.
But those are all projections, and now that Samuel has pretty much lost all of his leverage, it’s hard to imagine the 49ers have any incentive to offer him a salary over the $25 million figure. The market has been set, and San Francisco holds all the cards. Why give Samuel what Brown got when the wide receiver has no recourse?
Even so, when you take into account the final year of both player’s rookie deals, a $25 million extension doesn’t seem all that outrageous. Brown makes $4 million this year. Over the next five seasons, his annual average value will be $20.8 million.
Samuel makes just under $4 million this year, the final year of his rookie deal. That means that even if the 49ers replicated the Brown deal, they’d still be paying him under $21 million per year for the next five seasons.
No matter how you slice it, Thursday was good for the Niners and not so good for Samuel when it comes to negotiating position. Samuel is now almost certainly not going to get the $25 million he’s seeking, and has no leverage beyond a holdout, which would hurt him financially and possibly hurt his market value moving forward.
John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan don’t seem the type to lowball Samuel, but they also aren’t going to overpay when they don’t have to. It’s now up to the All-Pro wide receiver to decide if he’s willing to negotiate in good faith, or continue to wait for a deal that may not be coming.
