Every game, as manager Gabe Kapler often reminds, is worth just as much as the next in a 162-game schedule.
But the Giants’ next two games, beginning Tuesday night in Phoenix, are about as make-or-break as they can get. They’ve put themselves in such a position.
San Francisco (76-74) started the day with a 13.6% chance at reaching the postseason, per Fangraphs. Based on the results of their imminent two-game set with the Diamondbacks, that figure is set to fluctuate significantly.
The Giants and Diamondbacks are two of five teams competing for the final pair of National League wild card spots. Both clubs have lined up their best starting pitchers — Alex Cobb and Logan Webb for the Giants, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks — for two pivotal matchups.
Here’s what makes this series so important for the Giants, and the National League playoff race as a whole.
How the Giants got here
As recently as a week ago, the Giants truly controlled their own destiny. Last Thursday, at 75-71, the Giants claimed the third wild card spot and 47.5% playoff odds.
Then they dropped three of four to the last-place Rockies in Coors Field, including getting swept in a doubleheader with Colorado for the first time in franchise history.
The shocking series continued the trend of what could end up being San Francisco’s downfall this year: playing down to their competition. Against sub-.500 teams, SF is 39-40 on the year, including series losses to the Tigers, Angels, Royals and Nationals.
With 12 games left, the Giants are more of a longshot than a coin-flip. The Diamondbacks series could present their dramatic last stand.
The matchup
Both clubs have had thin starting rotations, but both are going with their co-aces. The Giants have historically struggled against Merrill Kelly, who’s pitching Wednesday. Alex Cobb, SF’s Tuesday starter, has a 4.68 second-half ERA and has been battling through a hip impingement. The Giants are just 13-17 in games Logan Webb has started, despite the righty’s Cy Young-caliber season. Zac Gallen is one of four NL pitchers with more Fangraphs WAR than Webb.
Both the Giants and Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their past 10 games. They feature rookie phenoms in Corbin Carroll and Patrick Bailey. Infielders Wilmer Flores and Evan Longoria have played on both sides of the divisional rivalry.
Each matchup has the potential for drama. Here are the starting lineups for the opener:
Tiebreaker ramifications
Ties are no longer decided on the field in the expanded playoff era, and the Giants-Diamondbacks series could factor into the calculus of who gets in, and who gets left out.
Entering the two-game series, the Giants have a 6-5 season series advantage over the Diamondbacks. That means if they just win one of the next two games, they’ll hold the tiebreaker advantage over Arizona.
San Francisco already holds the tiebreaker against the Reds and Phillies — the likely top wild card team — by virtue of their season-series wins. They also will likely own the tiebreaker with the Marlins because of their intra-division records.
The Cubs are the only team with a tiebreaker over San Francisco, unless the Diamondbacks sweep SF Tuesday and Wednesday.
Given how crowded the wild card field is, there’s a fair chance the playoff field gets decided via tiebreaker math. If the Giants finish with the same record as their peers, they’ll have a good shot at getting into the dance.
But to put themselves in that position in the first place, they need to perform in Chase Field.
If they win…
If the Giants win one game, they’ll own the valuable tiebreaker over Arizona. If they win both, they’ll be tied with the Diamondbacks in the loss column.
In either outcome, the Giants’ season will come down to the final 10 games against the Padres and Dodgers — the final six of which will take place at Oracle Park.
On paper, that’s a substantial challenge. But it could play out differently in practice. The Padres’ tragic number is six, and although they’re currently on their longest winning streak of their season, they could be officially eliminated from the postseason when they come to San Francisco. Manny Machado is heading toward elbow surgery and could get shut down.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, have the division wrapped up and may not have much to play for in the regular season finale series. In that case, they could rest some banged up players and line their rotation up for the NLDS. Regardless, the Giants would have substantially more urgency.
San Francisco’s margin is razor-thin already. Beating the Diamondbacks, at the very least, keeps it that way.
If they lose…
Call the rookies back up, sit the veterans, IL anyone who needs it, 1-2-3 Cancún. It’ll be time to think about those on expiring contracts, and what’s next for the greatest shortstop in franchise history.
If the Giants lose both games to the Diamondbacks, they’ll lose the tiebreaker and fall four games behind Arizona in the loss column. Depending on how the Cubs, Marlins and Reds play over the next two days, SF could fall to a practically insurmountable standings deficit in the span of 48 hours.
The Giants’ playoff odds would likely fall from 13.6% to near zero with a pair of Ls. They’d be back at .500, and the path to the postseason would require magic over the final 10 games and a lot of help.
To keep their postseason hopes alive, the Giants must, at all costs, avoid a two-game sweep.
