Farhan Zaidi had plenty of time to think about next year’s roster when he said he expects 15 to 20 returning players during his end of season press conference. Because of the Giants’ second-half spiral, San Francisco’s front office could begrudgingly get a head start on the offseason.
Among the first items on San Francisco’s agenda will be deciding whether or not to tender contracts to the Giants’ six arbitration eligible players. That list consists of Thairo Estrada, Mike Yastrzemski, J.D. Davis, Tyler Rogers, Austin Slater and LaMonte Wade Jr..
Looking at the postseason rosters, every one of those six players are talented enough to play a role on a contender. They’re each, at the very least, valuable complementary players.
“It’s interesting, there are teams that are not in the playoffs that had disappointing seasons that had those superstar players and the refrain you hear is, ‘We didn’t have the right players around them, we didn’t have the right complementary players,’” Zaidi said. “Not every acquisition we make and not every retention decision we make is going to be around a star, even though I understand a lot of the conversation is going to be about that.”
The Giants bringing each of them back at their arbitration estimate would be good value, in a vacuum. But there remains a need for the Giants to come into spring training with new personnel. To make big changes. After two mediocre seasons, more than just the manager must go.
Here’s what the Giants must consider with their arbitration decisions, from easiest calls to toughest decisions for the Nov. 17 tender deadline (arbitration estimates via MLB Trade Rumors).
Thairo Estrada
Arbitration estimate: $4.8 million
Acquiring Estrada from the Yankees for cash considerations was one of the Farhan Zaidi front office’s shrewdest transactions. As the Giants’ everyday second baseman in 2023, Estrada led the Giants in stolen bases, doubles and hits. He won the 2023 Willie Mac Award, in part because of his growth as a leader; at one point the soft-spoken infielder called a team meeting.
Only Logan Webb produced more Fangraphs WAR than Estrada in 2023. The 27-year-old has played himself into a real piece for the Giants. There’s no doubt the Giants will bring back Estrada. The only question is whether they’ll guarantee him long-term security with a contract extension.
Tyler Rogers
Arbitration estimate: $3.2 million
Like Estrada, Rogers is a no-brainer. Along with his twin and Camilo Doval, Rogers represents the core of a reliable bullpen.
Since 2021, no reliever in MLB has pitched more innings than Rogers (230.2). Among relievers with at least 100 innings in that span, Rogers ranks 37th with a 2.93 ERA. That’s an elite combination of durability and production over a long sample size.
The home run suppression specialist is simply one of the most valuable relievers in baseball. Getting him on such a cheap deal in arbitration is a massive bargain.
LaMonte Wade Jr.
Arbitration estimate: $3.3 million
Wade bounced back from an injury-plagued 2022 season, nearly matching his 2021 production while seamlessly shifting from the outfield to first base. The Giants could certainly do worse than Wade and a right-handed partner at first.
As the Giants’ leadoff man for most of the year, Wade ranked 16th in on-base percentage among players with at least 450 plate appearances (.373). His patience at the plate raises his floor as a player even as his power production can be touch-and-go.
Wade is a valuable player, but he does come with injury concern. Even in 2023, he played through bumps and bruises. He’ll be 30 entering next season, and the Giants may have to weigh health risk with their ability to replace him externally. The safe move, especially at that $3.3 million figure, would be to bring him back.
Mike Yastrzemski
Arbitration estimate: $7.3 million
Yastrzemski has always done all the little things well, and that extends to his clubhouse leadership — an area the Giants must focus on when thinking about the 2024 roster.
The only reason Yaz is this far down the list is based on something completely out of his control: Michael Conforto. If Conforto decides to opt in for 2024 at $18 million, the Giants’ outfield gets pretty crowded. They’d have some combination of Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Luis Matos, Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos, Wade Meckler and Blake Sabol. That would be before making tender decisions on Yastrzesmki and Austin Slater, plus possibly adding an outfielder either in free agency or via trade.
If Conforto departs, bringing back Yastrzemski is an easy choice. Even if he returns, the Giants would still be sensible to tender Yastrzemski a contract given his intangible value and solid on-field production.
The money shouldn’t be a question; for a big-market team like the Giants, who happen to have very little on the books long-term, $7 million is just a drop. But if the Giants see a path to getting more athletic and dynamic in the outfield, there’s a remote possibility Yastrzemski gets left out.
J.D. Davis
Arbitration estimate: $6.8 million
One of the most impressive sub-storylines of the season was Davis’ defensive improvements. It reflected his dedication to his craft, Kai Correa’s influence, and the byproduct of a stable role that had escaped Davis for the majority of his career.
At the same time, Davis’ offensive production cratered in the second half. He had an .800 OPS in his All-Star caliber first half, then a .649 OPS in the home stretch.
The Giants probably aren’t prepared to hand over the third base position to Casey Schmitt, Wilmer Flores and Fitzgerald. Davis’ ability to also play first should also help his case. Still, bringing back a player like Davis doesn’t accomplish SF’s goal of getting younger and more athletic.
Davis is probably safe. He has upside as a down-order bat. Turning himself into a valuable fielder is huge. Yet if San Francisco decides to make a run at free agent Matt Chapman, Davis could become redundant.
Austin Slater
Arbitration estimate: $3.6 million
Many of the same questions Yastrzesmki faces apply to Slater. How does the outfield mix look if Conforto returns? How much playing time do the Giants expect for Matos, Ramos and Fitzgerald? Could his roster spot be better used via trade or signing?
Slater’s situation could get complicated by his offseason elbow surgery. The team expects him to be back for spring training, and hopefully the procedure helps him be even better than he was the past two seasons as he dealt with elbow nerve issues. But that’s not a given.
Slater is one of the best right-handed pinch hitters in the game. He has taken his role in stride and often excelled in it. Every team is better with an Austin Slater coming off their bench.
But the Giants could look at replacing Slater in that role with a younger, more dynamic player. Or they could bet on better health — both with Slater’s arm and hamstring, which limited him to just two stolen bases in 2023 — and familiarity. More than anyone else on this list, either decision would be defensible.
