A drama-packed Week 1 of the 2025 college football season concludes with a third matchup between top-10 teams with No. 6 Notre Dame traveling to No. 10 Miami on Sunday night.
The Irish played for the national title in their most recent game in January, while Miami narrowly missed the College Football Playoff field.
ODDS AND TRENDS
Notre Dame is a consensus 2.5-point favorite. That includes at BetMGM, where the Irish have drawn 73 percent of the spread-line bets and have been backed by 66 percent of the spread-line money.
The moneyline action has been nearly split. The Irish (-145) have been backed by 51 percent of the bets, although the Hurricanes (+120) have drawn only 41 percent of the money.
PROP PICKS
–Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love 70+ Rushing Yards (-190 at DraftKings): This has been the second-most popular prop at the book for this game, impacted heavily by the Irish’s inexperience at quarterback. Love topped 70 rushing yards in eight games last season, but was limited by a knee injury during the CFP. He’s healthy now and the offense is likely to run through him Sunday night.
–Miami QB Carson Beck 250+ Passing Yards (+104 at DraftKings): Beck is returning from a more significant injury that sidelined him from Georgia’s CFP run and ultimately led to his transfer to the Hurricanes. Miami has significant turnover at wide receiver, but that hasn’t prevented this from being the most popular prop play at the book.
TALE OF TWO QBs
Miami lost No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward from the 2024 team and replaced him with Beck from Georgia.
Riley Leonard completed his eligibility for Notre Dame and redshirt freshman CJ Carr won a tightly contested quarterback competition with third-year sophomore Kenny Minchey.
“I had to make a difficult decision, and I did,” Irish coach Marcus Freeman said of choosing Carr, who will make his first college start in the primetime matchup. “As I told both of them, ‘We’re going to need both of them this year. We’re going to need both, and they both have to be mature enough to handle that decision and understand they’re chasing their full potential.’ No matter if you’re named starting quarterback or you’re the backup quarterback, you have to continue to work.”
Getting the quarterbacks up to speed is a big deal if Notre Dame wants to repeat last season’s success. The Irish went 14-2 and lost 34-23 to Ohio State in the title game.
Miami (10-3) won its first nine games last season and had a headlining quarterback but was passed over as an at-large team by the CFP committee.
Enter Beck, who passed for 7,426 yards and 52 touchdowns with 18 interceptions over the past two seasons for the Bulldogs.
Beck said he doesn’t feel like he has to match Ward, who passed for 4,313 yards, 39 TDs and seven interceptions. He compared his current lot to stepping in as the replacement for Stetson Bennett at Georgia.
“The last school I was at I followed up the two-time national champion, so I didn’t really feel any pressure there,” Beck said. “It’s a game. I’ve played football my whole life. I’ve played quarterback since I was 7 years old, and it’s something that I love to do and I’ve got a lot of good talent around.”
KEY STAT
The Hurricanes experienced some difficulties on the defensive side last season. They allowed more than 30 points on six occasions, including 42 in each of their last two games — losses to Syracuse to end the regular season and to Iowa State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish were an elite defense last season. They led the nation with 33 takeaways while ranking fourth in both scoring defense (15.5 points per game) and passing yards allowed (169.4 yards per game).
FOR THE LOVE OF IT
Miami’s defensive scouting report likely doesn’t begin with Notre Dame’s quarterback. Love, who rushed for 1,125 yards and 17 touchdowns last season, is an NFL prospect and scored least one touchdown in 13 consecutive games.
Love said he’s ready for an increased workload as the Irish try to take pressure off Carr.
“I would say I’m more of a physical back,” the 6-foot, 214-pound Love said. “I can hold off bigger defenders, partly because of my weight gain, working in the weight room.”
THEY SAID IT
“These are the games that you train all offseason for, top-10 matchups, two great teams going at it and battling. I’m expecting Hard Rock to be packed because this is not just any regular game. You look back at Miami versus Notre Dame history, it’s always been a great matchup and a pretty crazy game.” –Miami sixth-year defensive end Akheem Mesidor, who had 5.5 sacks last season.
PREDICTION
This is a monumental home opener for Miami as Cristobal’s team attempts to legitimize the program among the nation’s elite. Despite Beck’s experience, we expect a somewhat lower-scoring game as the Hurricanes break in a ton of new receiving threats while the Irish lean heavily on their ground game with a young quarterback on the road in prime time. Notre Dame’s defense ultimately proves the difference. –Notre Dame 24, Miami 23
