1. San Antonio Spurs
2025-26 record: 62-20, first in Southwest, NBA Finals runner-up
Head coach: Mitch Johnson, third season (94-65)
Coming and going: San Antonio had little movement as it rides its young group that features center Victor Wembanyama and guards Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper. Signing Wembanyama to a five-year, $252 million extension boosted the dynasty odds too. The Spurs did add some experience in veteran forward Tobias Harris, who enters his 16th season and could help in the postseason as the moment was occasionally too big for the squad last May and June. Billy Donovan, who has 32 seasons of head coaching experience (11 NBA, 21 college), is the new lead assistant to help Johnson push the Spurs over the top.
Numbers to crunch: The Spurs have won 60 or more games eight times and won NBA titles in two of those campaigns (2002-03 season, 2013-14). All-Star point guard De’Aaron Fox faded on the playoff stage, scoring in single digits in two of five NBA Finals games and four of San Antonio’s final eight postseason games. Wembanyama posted 42 double-doubles last season and has 113 in three NBA seasons.
Breakout player: Harper finished fourth in Rookie of the Year balloting and was even better in the postseason, when he averaged 14.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.7 assists. His play was certainly better than Fox, who is slated to make $49.49 million this season. The 20-year-old Harper averaged 18 points in the NBA Finals and figures to be better throughout this season.
2. Houston Rockets
2025-26 record: 52-30, second in Southwest, lost first round of playoffs
Head coach: Ime Udoka, fourth season with Rockets (145-101 record)
Coming and going: Stellar guard Fred VanVleet is back after missing last season with an ACL tear. Houston added veteran guard Marcus Smart, who was the NBA Defensive Player of the Year in 2021-22 during Udoka’s season as coach of the Boston Celtics. The Rockets signed youngsters Amen Thompson (five years, $208 million) and Tari Eason (five years, $81.5 million) to keep their group intact, but also added veteran guard Bogdan Bogdanovic. Forward Dorian Finney-Smith and guard Josh Okogie are departures.
Numbers to crunch: Kevin Durant is fifth all-time with 32,597 career points and will pass Kobe Bryant midway through the season presuming he stays injury-free. Perhaps not discussed as much is that Durant ranks 10th all-time with 2,377 3-pointers. Two-time All-Star Alperen Sengun scored 30 or more points on 10 occasions last season.
Breakout player: The Rockets feel Eason is ready to take it up a notch in his fifth NBA season. The 25-year-old will need to shake the injury bug that has limited him to 60, 57 and 22 games over the past three seasons. He averaged 10.5 points and 6.3 rebounds in 25.8 minutes per game last season after averaging a career-best 12.0 points in 2024-25. If Eason raises last year’s 41.6% field-goal accuracy, he could average 15 points per game.
3. Dallas Mavericks
2025-26 record: 26-56, tied third in Southwest, missed playoffs
Head coach: Dusty May, first season (0-0)
Coming and going: Is there a time limit for saying Luka Doncic really was a player who was going? At least Kyrie Irving is back after missing last season with an ACL tear. Veterans Klay Thompson and Khris Middleton are among the departed. Among the newcomers is first-round draft pick Morez Johnson Jr., who played for national champion Michigan under May. Newcomers Zaccharie Risacher (No. 1 overall pick in 2024) and Santi Aldama can provide frontcourt depth.
Numbers to crunch: Cooper Flagg excelled as the NBA’s top rookie by averaging 21 points per game and topping 40 points four times with a high of 51. Oh, yeah, he turns 20 in December. Long-range shooting was an issue for the Mavericks as they were 26th in 3-point accuracy (34.4%) and only the Sacramento Kings made fewer than Dallas’ 11.0 treys per game. Irving is 34, a number that could lead to a midseason trade if he shows he’s back in form and Dallas is struggling — or if he doesn’t mix as well with Flagg as Mavericks brass anticipates.
Breakout player: Johnson will receive a lot of early playing time with Dereck Lively II still sidelined from last season’s foot surgery. Having a coach who believes in him means he will be given ample opportunity to make an impact. He won’t be a repeat of Flagg, but he can be an immediate complement to the Mavs’ go-to guy.
4. New Orleans Pelicans
2025-26 record: 26-56, tied third in Southwest, missed playoffs
Head coach: Jamahl Mosley, first season with Pelicans (0-0)
Coming and going: The Pelicans mostly stood pat with a team that finished 30 games below .500 but scored well with the free-agent signing of Bennedict Mathurin, who averaged 17.6 points in 54 games split between the Indiana Pacers and Los Angeles Clippers last season. New Orleans shed itself of big man Kevon Looney and traded young guards Jordan Hawkins and Micah Peavy to the Grizzlies. Guard A.J. Johnson came from Memphis and the 21-year-old former first-round pick will be playing for his fourth organization after being on the floor for just 77 contests.
Numbers to crunch: Zion Williamson played in 62 games last season, his second most since entering the NBA in 2019. Now 26, time is running out for Williamson to be a true impact player for the Pelicans. New Orleans looks to shore up a defense that allowed 130 or more points on 16 occasions. Trey Murphy III sank a career-best 214 3-pointers despite playing in just 66 games.
Breakout player: Guard Jeremiah Fears fared well as a 19-year-old rookie while playing all 82 games and starting 49 times. The speedy point guard averaged 14.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.2 steals while playing 25.8 minutes per game. With increased minutes and improvement in his game, Fears could threaten 20 points per outing if Mosley hands him the keys to the offense.
5. Memphis Grizzlies
2025-26 record: 25-57, fifth in Southwest, missed playoffs
Head coach: Tuomas Iisalo, third season with Grizzlies (29-62)
Coming and going: The Ja Morant Era is over after the offseason trade that shipped him to Portland. Forwards Jerami Grant, a highly reliable player, and improving Kris Murray came over in the Morant trade. First-round draft pick Cameron Boozer out of Duke is the main building block for the future. Sadly, big man Brandon Clarke died of a drug overdose in May at age 29.
Numbers to crunch: How about zero? That’s the number of draft picks the Grizzlies got in the Morant trade. Compare that to getting four when they traded Desmond Bane to Orlando and three when Jaren Jackson Jr. was dealt to Utah. How about 51? That’s the number of victories in 2021-22 when the Grizzlies were a rising franchise featuring Morant, Jackson, Bane and hard-nosed Dillon Brooks. How about 22? Number of times Memphis gave up 130 or more points last season.
Breakout player: The Grizzlies plan to feature the 19-year-old Boozer early and often this season. Boozer averaged 22.5 points, 10.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists in his lone college season and will be asked to deliver for a team in transition. Boozer figures to be a leading Rookie of the Year candidate since he will be receiving 30-plus minutes from the outset of the season.
