© Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
OAKLAND – All the talk tonight is about James Harden. He hit the game-tying and game-winning 3-pointers en route to a 44-point triple-double. But there wouldn’t have been an overtime without Clint Capela (and poor shot selection by the Warriors down the stretch). Harden’s “sidekick,” if you can even call him that, had 29 points and 21 rebounds on 12-of-19 shooting and it felt like he easily could have had more.
This was with the Warriors switching onto Capela effectively for most of the night and with Kevon Looney playing an all-around solid game. But there was no one who could come anywhere close to matching up with Capela size-wise. It represented the massive hole the Warriors have on their roster at the center position.
When this season started, Damian Jones still felt like a project player that the Warriors hoped they could get a decent and improved contribution out of. But the departures of Zaza Pachulia and Javale McGee (as well as David West) over the summer left the Warriors with Jones (7 feet) as the team’s only healthy center at least 6’11” tall, and thus catapulted his value to the team.
With Steven Adams, Rudy Gobert and Nikola Jokic the first three starting centers slotted to face the Warriors, Jones took over the starting role as the only player who could match up with those behemoth centers defensively. Even when Jones struggled after an initial hot start, he generally provided the Warriors with decent defensive minutes and respite from the size mismatches of Kevon Looney, Jordan Bell, Jonas Jerebko or Draymond Green playing at the center spot.
When Jones tore his left pectoral muscle December 1 against the Detroit Pistons, it left the Warriors without a true active center on the roster.
Their remaining frontcourt players are Green (6’7″), Looney (6’9″), Bell (6’9″) and Jerebko (6’10”). You can count Kevin Durant (listed at 6’9″) if you want, but there’s no way to pretend Durant is anything but a small forward.
To be clear, the Warriors have been relatively fine without Jones. They’re 10-5 since he was injured. But, for the most part, the significance of his injury isn’t about the regular season. Unless a catastrophic series of events takes place, the Warriors are still a lock for one of the top three seeds in the Western Conference.
However, Jones’s injury could have massive implications for the playoffs, both in terms of the mismatches that will be created if his spot isn’t replaced, and the wear and tear it could place on players like Looney, Bell and Green.
The massive question mark in all of this is DeMarcus Cousins. If Cousins comes back healthy and can give the Warriors on average even 15 minutes a game of serviceable minutes, this point is moot. But there’s no way to predict how Cousins will play, or when he will play, or if another one of the Warriors’ front court players will get hurt. The Warriors’ front office certainly can’t move forward under the assumption everything will go smoothly from now through April.
There’s no set return date for Cousins, and when he returns, he’ll likely be on restricted minutes. Even then, it’s doubtful he’ll be close to the level he was last season, although, again, the Warriors only need him to be decent and matchup against other center, not All-Star caliber.
Here’s what Steve Kerr has said most recently about Cousins’s return. He still seems to be at least multiple weeks away, but it may be getting closer to a week-by-week, rather than month-by-month timeline as it has been so far this season. He’s a ways out, but he’s at least practicing with the team:
Non-update update from Warriors practice: DeMarcus Cousins again took part in all activities, but there still remains no target date for eventual return. Here’s Steve Kerr on what will go into eventually clearing him. pic.twitter.com/YxdTULp66w
— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) January 2, 2019
So what happens next? What can the Warriors do to mediate this problem and limit the burden placed on Looney, Bell, Jerebko and Green? Kerr has stressed that he doesn’t want to overload Green’s minutes at the five spot, but he’s had to put him there in crunch time already, so a change is going to have to come, regardless of Cousins’ progress.
The first option is a trade.
Here’s what general manager Bob Myers said about adding another big man:
Bob Myers on the team’s desire to add another big: “More than likely, it’ll come later, maybe in the form of a buyout or trade. Those conversations start heating up in late January.” Not said: Robin Lopez remains clear fit for Warriors, if Bulls eventually buy him out.
— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) December 31, 2018
The NBA trade deadline is February 8, but the Warriors don’t have many assets that they can afford to part with outside of draft picks. But first-round draft picks, which generally ensure cheap four-year contracts, and second round draft picks, which have the potential to accomplish the same, or find a diamond in the rough, a la Draymond Green, are invaluable to a team with a bloated salary bill like the Warriors.
There’s a premium price the Warriors would have to pay in any trade, especially with a contending team, and draft picks are likely to be required by any trade partner considering the few assets the Warriors have that they would be willing to part with and who are tradable. Salary matching and the Warriors’ tight cap situation also complicates any potential trade. So, it’s possible, maybe even to bring back someone like Zaza Pachulia. But, if the Warriors are unable to make a move at the trade deadline, what are their options?
One option is to look to the G-League. The Warriors picked up Deyonta Davis this summer, who played last season with the Memphis Grizzlies, but Davis is the same 6’9″ height as Looney and Bell and is averaging just 6.3 points and 6.4 rebounds per game with the Santa Cruz Warriors. He’s not a reliable option, but no one in the G-League will be, although a player like Davis could take some of the pressure off the rest of the front court and bring energy off the bench.
But the Warriors are likely looking for something more reliable than a flier on an undersized spark plug. That’s where buyouts and the waiver wire come into play. If a team decides to buyout one of their players, as has happened with Carmelo Anthony and Joakim Noah already this season, the Warriors could wait until that player clears waivers and sign them to a veteran minimum contract of $2.3 million.
From the start of this season, the team has made a concerted effort to ensure roster flexibility. With Patrick McCaw’s holding out as a restricted free agent, the team left its 15th roster spot open, with Damion Lee and Marcus Derrickson occupying the couple of two-way spots available. With McCaw signing with the Cleveland Cavaliers on a two-year $6 million deal, that 15th spot is officially wide open and it’s likely it’s eventually taken by a center. Here’s what Kerr said about the Warriors’ effort to stay flexible and potentially wait for the buyout deadline to pick up a backup center:
Steve Kerr on the end of Patrick McCaw’s brief Warriors career: “The financial implications were too great, particularly at a time we need our roster flexibility.” pic.twitter.com/MfqUbf8sAz
— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) December 31, 2018
For a player to be eligible to play on a playoff team, they must complete the buyout and sign with their new team by March 1. What’s also important to note is that contracts become guaranteed by January 10. Teams that waive a player after this point will be stuck paying the rest of their salary for the season, so some teams may look to move players by that time.
The one problem with the waiver wire is that a player has to clear the 48-hour waiver period before they become an unrestricted free agent. The player’s existing payroll has to fit into the team’s salary cap space, however, and not many competing teams have the space to sign a player like Robin Lopez outright. However, if teams put claims in on a player, the team with the worse record wins the claim and gets to sign the player, so that doesn’t bode well for the Warriors.
It’s likely that a player like Lopez, who has a $14,357,750 salary in the final year of his contract this season, clears waivers. At that point, it’s up to the player to decide where he wants to sign, and as was seen with David West, JaVale McGee and Zaza Pachulia before, Lopez might want to make a run with the Warriors and see a rotational center spot up for grabs.
If worst comes to worst, the Warriors might just have to take a flier on Davis or someone of a similarly underwhelming caliber with a 10-day contract (a team can give a player two consecutive 10-day contracts before they have to either waive the player or sign them to the roster), or try and lure someone like Marreese Speights or Joffrey Lauvergne back from overseas.
But that’s a worst-case scenario, and it’s likely some more big men get waived or bought out before the deadline, at which point the Warriors, and the lure of decent minutes and another championship run will make a pretty convincing offer to someone like Lopez. Still, that’s a ways away and the Warriors will have to weather the storm on the interior until Cousins can make his debut and/or they sign another front court player, which might not happen until February.
Below are the front court players the Warriors are likely to face over the next month (including Capela, tonight), along with their points, points in the paint and rebound numbers per game (heading into tonight’s slate of games):
January 3: Clint Capela (17.5 ppg, 14.5 pitp, 12.5 rpg)
January 5: Willie Cauley-Stein (13.7 ppg, 11.0 pitp, 8.7 rpg), Marvin Bagley III (12.7 ppg, 8.3 pitp, 6.1 rpg), Nemanja Bjelica (11.1 ppg, 5.0 pitp, 6.1 rpg)
January 8: Enes Kanter (14.4 ppg, 10.8 pitp, 10.6 rpg)
January 11: Bobby Portis (11.9 ppg, 6.9 pitp, 8.0 rpg), Wendell Carter Jr. (10.4 ppg, 6.4 pitp, 6.9 rpg), Lauri Markannen (17.0 ppg, 5.9 pitp, 7.4 rpg)
January 13: DeAndre Jordan (11.0 ppg, 8.2 pitp, 14.1 rpg)
January 15: Nikola Jokic (18.0 ppg, 9.8 pitp, 9.9 rpg), Paul Millsap (13.4 ppg, 6.9 pitp, 6.8 rpg), Mason Plumlee (7.1 ppg, 5.8 pitp, 6.0 rpg)
January 16: Anthony Davis (28.7 ppg, 15.2 pitp, 13.4 rpg), Julius Randle (19.9 ppg, 13.3 pitp, 9.3 rpg), Nikola Mirotic (17.4 ppg, 5.4 pitp, 9.2 rpg)
January 18: Montrezl Harrell (15.7 ppg, 12.0 pitp, 6.6 rpg), Boban Marjanovic (7.1 ppg, 4.8 pitp, 4.1 rpg), Marcin Gortat (4.8 ppg, 3.5 pitp, 5.6 rpg)
January 21: JaVale McGee (11.8 ppg, 10.1 pitp, 6.9 rpg), Kyle Kuzma (18.3 ppg, 9.5 pitp, 5.8 rpg), Ivica Zubac (5.8 ppg, 5.1 pitp, 3.6 rpg)
January 24: Thomas Bryant (8.4 ppg, 5.9 pitp, 5.1 rpg)
January 26: Al Horford (12.3 ppg, 5.6 pitp, 6.2 rpg)
January 28: Myles Turner (13.1 ppg, 6.0 pitp, 7.3 rpg), Domantas Sabonis (14.6 ppg, 10.1 pitp, 9.5 rpg), Thaddeus Young (12.1 ppg, 9.5 pitp, 5.8 rpg)
January 31: Joel Embiid (26.9 ppg, 12.8 pitp, 13.6 rpg), Ben Simmons (16.3 ppg, 12.6 pitp, 9.1 rpg)
The Warriors are one of five teams in the NBA without a top-50 points in the paint scorer who’s a power forward or center. The only player in the top-50 is Durant, who’s 39th.
But what’s even more telling is the fact that Warriors are dead last in the league at scoring in the paint at 40.4 points per game. Seven of the top 10 teams and 10 of the top 13 teams in points in the paint scoring currently hold a playoff spot.
Granted, the other side of that token is that teams which score few points in the paint often compensate with outside shooting, like the Warriors and Rockets.
The other current playoff seeds with the Warriors in the bottom half of points in the paint scoring are the Charlotte Hornets (16th), Detroit Pistons (17th), Miami Heat (18th), Philadelphia 76ers (19th), Portland Trail Blazers (21st) San Antonio Spurs (25th), Houston Rockets (26th) and Boston Celtics (27th). Every single one of those teams has a star-quality center or power forward threat offensively besides the Hornets.
Of those teams, only the 76ers, Rockets and Celtics would have any chance of beating the Warriors in a playoff series. Whereas the Warriors have had someone to throw against Capela, or theoretically, Embiid and Horford in the past, they wouldn’t in their current makeup.
That’s what tonight showed, and that’s why the Warriors should be taking their search for another center very seriously. You can be certain that weakness would be attacked in a seven game series and that’s only when talking about the potential playoff teams that are terrible at scoring the ball in the paint.
If something doesn’t change, this could be the Warriors’ undoing in the playoffs. It probably won’t ever get to that point, considering how smart Bob Myers and the rest of the front office have demonstrated they are. But, if Cousins can’t become even a shell of his former self and the Warriors have to take a flier on a questionable veteran or young center, things could get dicey in the playoffs, and the Warriors won’t have a backup plan.
