© Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
LOS ANGELES – Seven days of baseball have passed. In that time, the Giants have acquired a new starting outfielder in Kevin Pillar, seen five-plus inning starts from every single one of their starters, given chances to every batter to start, and utilized every bullpen arm in generally meaningful situations.
Considering that, here is a look at how Giants’ players have fared through the opening week, through the lens of evaluating performances and relative values through a stock exchange. Below is an explanation of the different evaluators that will be used for each player, followed by the player’s performance on the theoretical stock exchange. This piece will be updated each week throughout the season:
BASE STOCK CATEGORY
This is to determine where a player has started their season, and what their perceived value is in order to determine what sort of return is possible or expected. Much of this is based on performance in 2018, which of course considers injuries. Players like Austin Slater, Chris Shaw and Ray Black, who are starting the season in the minors, and Johnny Cueto, who is on the disabled list, will not be mentioned until/if they are called up.
Blue chip (Reliable, top tier): Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria
High cap (Highly valuable, but not quite top tier, maybe due to injury, youth, or a letdown in recent years): Joe Panik, Steven Duggar, Reyes Moronta, Will Smith, Dereck Rodriguez, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson, Gerardo Parra, Kevin Pillar
Mid cap (Very much in the middle, generally decent and with good potential to shift up or down): Derek Holland, Yangervis Solarte, Drew Pomeranz, Nick Vincent, Pablo Sandoval, Eric Kratz
Low cap (Potentially disappointing in previous seasons, has higher expectations than penny stocks): Mark Melancon, Jeff Samardzija, Trevor Gott
Penny stock (Most volatile, but cheap and with potential for highest relative return, very much unknown): Michael Reed, Connor Joe, Travis Bergen
TRENDS
Trends refers to the way a player has improved or diminished the value of their stock from the previous week.
Rising – This player has exceeded expectations and would hold more value in a trade than in the previous week.
Steady – The sum of this player’s performances have not greatly affected his stock from the previous week.
Falling – This player has performed below expectations and would hold less value in a trade than in the previous week.
VOLATILITY
Volatility refers to how unpredictable a player is from each week to next, and whether they have greater or lower potential to have a different performance from the week prior.
High volatility – This player is very unpredictable and may have one great week and one horrible week. While blue chips are top tier due to their reliability on the season as a whole, they may fit into this category if they are streaky from week to week.
Medium volatility – This player may have significant shifts week to week, but is relatively reliable.
Low volatility – This player is pretty much reliable and is not very prone to great shifts week to week.
RECOMMENDED STRATEGY
This section will likely come more into play around the trade deadline, but it represents a figurative suggestion of how to handle a player’s stock if it were its own actual stock on an exchange.
I want to make clear this is solely intended to describe a player’s on-field value. Players are not a commodity that can or should be viewed as buyable or sellable assets, which I understand this piece could be misconstrued as. It is intended as a way to evaluate how players progress throughout the season, and what sort benefit or lack thereof they bring to the team.
Players are human beings with families like everyone else in the world, but they happen to have intriguing, difficult careers which place them on a stage in front of thousands in person, and millions on TV and the internet every day. That stated, here are the categories.
Buy – The value of this player is likely to continue to increase. A player can have their value increase without this being the recommended strategy.
Hold – No change in strategy is recommended. It’s likely this player’s value remains about the same.
Sell – The value of this player is likely to continue to decrease. A player can have their value falling without this being the recommended strategy.
STARTERS
Madison Bumgarner: Bumgarner had a healthy spring training and looked fantastic in his seven-inning, five-hit, two-run opening day start against the San Diego Padres. While his performance Tuesday night had a concerningly bad third inning, in which Bumgarner allowed five unearned runs and a grand slam, he recovered to shut out the Los Angeles Dodgers through his next three innings, and added a two-run home run that kept the Giants in the game for their late, but unfruitful rally.
After the game, Bumgarner said, “It was as lost as I’ve felt on the mound in a long time.”
Bumgarner: “The first three innings of the game, I had no feel. It was as lost as I’ve felt out there in a long time.” pic.twitter.com/1gF3feqcam
— KNBR (@KNBR) April 3, 2019
While a lack of control in game No. 2 could potentially be seen as a red flag, Bumgarner recovered well after that early nightmare. His throwing error and walk to Hyun-Jin Ryu to kick off that third were both mistakes, that, if he’d gone without either, would have secured at worst a one-run inning. For someone looking “lost,” Bumgarner didn’t look all that bad. His health, opening day start and expiring are all reasons to believe he’ll have an improved campaign, and with his recent odd start lowering his theoretical value on the stock market, I would recommend buying on Bumgarner.
- Stock category: Blue chip
- Trending: Steady
- Volatility: Medium volatility
- Recommended strategy: Buy
Derek Holland: Holland had a pair of unspectacular opening week performances, but the second was better than the first, and both kept the Giants in either game. The game two performance in a 4-1 loss against the Padres lasted just four innings with three earned runs, two walks, a home run and five strikeouts.
His second start Wednesday night against the Dodgers was much more promising. It lasted five innings, with two earned runs, four walks (one of which Holland said was effectively intentional, in order to get a favorable matchup against the left-handed Corey Seager), one home run and seven strikeouts. The pair of homers per nine innings and six walks per nine innings are both attention grabbers in the most negative sense.
Yet, he’s been very effective at securing strikeouts with a 12 K/9 rate. With Holland in what is effectively a contract year (the Giants can either re-sign him for another year at $7.5 million again, or opt out at a $500,000 cost), he’ll be motivated to prove he’s deserving of that second year option with the Giants, or a nice contract somewhere else. With a long season ahead, Holland will be counted on to accrue many of the Giants’ innings, so hold steady on him.
- Stock category: Mid cap
- Trending: Steady
- Volatility: Medium volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold
Dereck Rodriguez: Rodriguez looks like he hasn’t missed a beat. His start on day No. 3 was the one which most people were looking at as the Giants’ best chance to beat the Padres against the rookie left-hander Nick Margevicius. Margevicius was great, with three hits, five strikeouts and one earned run allowed through five innings, but Rodriguez was also good, allowing four hits and two earned runs through five innings with a pair of strikeouts.
Rodriguez allows a lot of balls in play, frustrating many BABIP addicts with his 2.81 ERA over 118.1 innings last year, but his delivery is hard to pick up on, and he hits his spots effectively. There’s certainly a possibility of a sophomore slump, but there’s no evidence as of yet to believe Rodriguez is trending towards one. He’s poised to remain a key cog in the Giants rotation, but it’s unclear if batters, who put his pitches in play and hit him frequently (7.5 H/9 last season), will catch onto him. For that reason, hold steady on him.
- Stock category: High cap
- Trending: Steady
- Volatility: Low volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold
Jeff Samardzija: Let me begin by saying it is great to see Jeff Samardzija back in the rotation after a frustrating, career-setback year in which he managed just 44.2 innings pitched last season due to shoulder issues. He seemed to always be almost healthy, but never quite, and the Giants eventually just shut his season down after his final start in mid-July. For that reason, and for the fact that Bruce Bochy said, “We’re not looking at him to be the guy to eat a lot of innings now… if he can give us about five or six good innings, that’s good,” Samardzija’s categorization has dropped to low cap, whereas, at the start of last season, it would have been high cap.
Samardzija’s first start was weird, but effective. He walked four batters, one intentionally, and only allowed three hits. His one run came from one of his walks, and the loss was clearly not due to his performance. The major concern is the fact that Samardzija threw so many balls. Just 47 of his 86 pitches (54.65 percent) were strikes, and one of his walks created his only run. It’ll take time to see if Samardzija can maintain his health and get back to controlling the strike zone.
- Stock category: Low cap
- Trending: Steady
- Volatility: Medium volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold
Drew Pomeranz: Pomeranz was effectively pushed out of the Red Sox rotation last year due to command issues, and didn’t see any time in the postseason. He showed tremendous resolve in his debut, however. From Monday night’s game story:
Drew Pomeranz did not start tonight in particularly flawless fashion. He threw 44 pitches through the first two innings – in large part to 12 first- and second-inning foul balls – but recovered surprisingly well in the following two innings. He did not keep the Dodgers off the basepath effectively, but he managed to avoid putting himself in serious run-scoring trouble.
While he was tagged for a pair of home runs in the fifth inning, that was the sole offensive output for the Dodgers. Pomeranz was fortunate enough to isolate those two solo shots and managed to secure as many strikeouts as hits allowed.
More than anything, Pomeranz looked like he was in control on Monday night. Even as the take-first-pitch-happy Dodgers worked him into a high pitch count through the first two innings, he held firm and set the table for the Giants to secure a comeback victory. He threw 90 pitches, 57 for strikes (63%), allowing six hits, six strikeouts, one walk, two earned runs, both of which were solo home runs.
Bochy said that he wanted to have Pomeranz start against the heavily left-side lineup of the Dodgers, rather than the Padres, and that if not for that, Pomeranz would be fourth in the rotation. I recommend buying on him.
- Stock category: Mid cap
- Trending: Rising
- Volatility: Medium volatility
- Recommended strategy: Buy
RELIEVERS
Reyes Moronta: If you hear that Reyes Moronta is pitching, you need to watch. Moronta has only pitched in two games so far this season, but it’s fair to say both performances have been nothing short of electrifying. He throws 96-plus mph fastballs with movement and better location than he showed last season. His slider is fantastic, but sometimes misses the zone, and he’s added a changeup, which, as we saw for the first time Wednesday night, is something like a screwball:
The first glimpse of Moronta's changeup was f i i i llthy – 88.6 mph had Verdugo searching, and not finding any answers #SFGiants pic.twitter.com/MVM0ALKsUx
— Jake Hutchinson (@hutchdiesel) April 4, 2019
While Moronta was tagged for a couple runs on Wednesday night, he didn’t pitch all that poorly. Bochy said his final pitch to Freese (a third-straight fastball in the same location at 96.6 mph, after two at 96.5 mph) was mis-located, and Freese likely locked onto the spot, but it wasn’t a bad spot to miss. The first double he allowed to Austin Barnes was scooped out from Barnes’s shins. The real error he made was walking Kike Hernandez.
Still, his strikeout on Alex Verdugo with his changeup was memorable, and echoed the career-high five strikeout performance he had over two innings in San Diego. While he’s essentially the guy who Bochy will put in during the most dangerous situations, it’s because he knows he can trust him there. I would buy as much Moronta stock as you can.
- Stock category: High cap
- Trending: Rising
- Volatility: High volatility
- Recommended strategy: Buy
Nick Vincent: Vincent will hope he has a year where he recovers some of his sub-3.00 ERA from earlier in his career, but that’s not been the case so far. He’s allowed hits in each of his three appearances (one, three and two hits, in order) with six total hits allowed, two walks and two earned allowed with just one strikeout. He hit the strike zone well in his first two appearances, but threw just 14 of 27 pitches for strikes against the Dodgers, and gave up what proved to be the winning run in the seventh inning. It’s too early to bail on Vincent, but you’d hope for an improvement next week.
- Stock category: Mid cap
- Trending: Falling
- Volatility: Low volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold
Tony Watson: Watson, like Vincent, has been hit in all three of his appearances to start the year. He’s allowed five total hits, but was only punished for them in Wednesday night’s outing. He came in to close out the seventh inning for Moronta, and after a wild pitch, secured an inning-ending groundout to keep the Giants trailing only 4-3. But his eighth inning didn’t go well, although some of the blame for that could be placed on Joe Panik.
After securing a fly ball to start the inning, Watson allowed an infield-outfield single to Cody Bellinger, who hit a slow rolling ground ball to Panik, playing in the shift in the outfield grass. Panik didn’t charge, and admitted after the game that he was to blame for Bellinger reaching first, with his throw too late. Then, Chris Taylor hit a double and advanced to third, giving the Dodgers a 5-3 lead and ending Watson’s night. Without the Bellinger hit, Watson may have secured a clean inning, so it’s hard to put the blame for the run solely on him. He’s been generally solid, aside from the consistent hits.
- Stock category: High cap
- Trending: Steady
- Volatility: Low volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold
Mark Melancon: It’s been a long road back for Melancon since undergoing forearm surgery for his pronator syndrome. According to Andrew Baggarly, it was a, “… condition in which the sheath that covers the muscle does not allow it to expand and results in compressed nerves. As a result, his elbow constantly feels tight whether he is pitching or not.”
He had an underwhelming return campaign last year, and did not look anywhere near the $62 million closer he was signed to be, which at this point, is an unreasonable expectation considering the injury. Those things happen, and like with Samardzija, expectations have to change with them.
That said, Melancon has looked good so far this season. He came into Wednesday night’s game with a man on third and one out, and secured a pair of groundouts, to keep the Giants just 5-3 behind. It will take more time to see if Melancon can become reliable again, but in 2 2/3 innings this season, he’s allowed just one hit and zero runs.
- Stock category: Low cap
- Trending: Rising
- Volatility: High volatility
- Recommended strategy: Buy
Trevor Gott: I don’t expect Gott to be on the Giants’ roster for the full duration of the season until the 40-man call-ups are allowed in September. He pitched one clean inning and got the win for the Giants in their Monday night comeback win over the Dodgers, but he allowed three hits and an earned run, walked two and secured two strikeouts in 1 2/3 innings against the Padres on March 29.
He has by no means looked terrible, but he hasn’t exactly sparkled, and after Ray Black’s solid 2018 campaign, I could see Gott and Black switching spots at some point this season.
- Stock category: Low cap
- Trending: Falling
- Volatility: High volatility
- Recommended strategy: Sell
Travis Bergen: Bergen has only seen an inning and a third of action, but he hasn’t allowed a run. While that might be the expectation for a reliever, it’s crucial for a 25-year-old Rule 5 draft pick trying to build confidence and establish himself in the majors. He was pulled after allowing a hit in the Giants’ March 30 win over the Padres, but threw a clean inning with his first career strikeout against the Dodgers on April 2. It will take more time to see what he’s capable of.
- Stock category: Penny stock
- Trending: Rising
- Volatility: High volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold
Sam Dyson: Dyson has had a very good start to the year. He leads all Giants relievers with 3 2/3 innings pitched and has yet to allow an earned run. He’s thrown 74 percent of his pitches for strikes and has struck out at least one batter in all three appearances (one, one, two). His worst performance was solid, as he secured back-to-back outs following Vincent.
He allowed a leadoff bunt single to Wil Myers, which he can’t be blamed for, then an error from Pablo Sandoval allowed Fernando Tatis Jr. to reach base. After a groundout, he allowed his first run (unearned) from a single by Austin Hedges, then secured a strikeout and ground out. He’s looked comfortable in those tight spots this year, and should continue to trend upwards.
- Stock category: High cap
- Trending: Rising
- Volatility: Low volatility
- Recommended strategy: Buy
Will Smith: Smith is the Giants’ closer this season, and unless Dyson or Moronta challenge him (which is definitely possible, but it seems like Bochy much prefers having those two come in during tight spots), it should remain that way. He has four strikeouts and one walk in two innings of zero-run relief. He looks just as good as he did last year.
- Stock category: High cap
- Trending: Steady
- Volatility: Low volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold
INFIELDERS
Brandon Belt: Belt is one of the Giants’ streakiest hitters, and he ended the first week on a hot streak after starting slow. He’s the first Giant to hit multiple home runs, and sparked their comeback victory over the Dodgers on Monday, and gave the team a 3-2 lead with his two-run homer on Wednesday. As usual, he’s looked good at first base, and isn’t likely to lose much time there to Buster Posey, according to Bochy. With the first home stand of the season coming up and Belt heating up, I’d recommend buying on him.
- Stock category: Blue chip
- Trending: Rising
- Volatility: High volatility
- Recommended strategy: Buy
Joe Panik: Panik looks healthy and solid in the infield. While he was platooned last season, second base will be all his this year, with Yangervis Solarte likely getting some time there as well. While he’s only 4-for-19 at the plate, he looks to be seeing the ball well after a hot spring training, during which he batted .426 (20-for-47) with a home run and five RBIs. His exit velocity is never going to be stunning, but he fouls the ball off plenty and looks locked in at the plate in a way he didn’t last season.
- Stock category: High cap
- Trending: Steady
- Volatility: Medium volatility
- Recommended strategy: Buy
Brandon Crawford: Crawford seems his usual self, more than just about anyone on this team. He’s 6-for-24 (.250) and has looked at ease turning double plays with Panik. He dealt with some knee pain last season that he kept relatively under wraps, and while his spring training wasn’t too promising, he appears to be healthy, which is always going to be the biggest determining factor of his success. He’s started fairly solid, and seems likely to remain that way.
- Stock category: Blue chip
- Trending: Steady
- Volatility: Low volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold
Evan Longoria: When you talk about the impact of health, and having a healthy spring training, Longoria might be the only person to benefit more than Madison Bumgarner. He’s 6-for-23 (.261) through the first week, and put the team on the board for the first time with a solo home run in the second game. While last season was disappointing for him, he’s healthy and looks as confident and as comfortable as he’s been since joining the Giants. His been hitting the ball hard early (90.8 mph exit velocity average, more than past two seasons so far). I see him having a much improved second year with the team.
- Stock category: Blue chip
- Trending: Rising
- Volatility: Medium volatility
- Recommended strategy: Buy
Pablo Sandoval: Pablo made a couple of errors in one game against the Padres on March 31, both of which cost the Giants runs. But as a hitter, he’s been clutch. He’s 3-for-9 with two doubles and two RBIs, including a game-tying single on April 1 against the Dodgers. He’s unpredictable, but will be useful for the Giants this year.
- Stock category: Mid cap
- Trending: Rising
- Volatility: High volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold
Yangervis Solarte: Solarte is going to be a very useful player for the Giants, but his infield deficiencies are evident. He looked much more assured at second base than shortstop, and even more so in the outfield. He’s got definite power coming off the bench that should prove useful, and had a great, 2-for-5, two double performance with an RBI that was key to the Giants’ 3-2 first win of the season against the Padres on March 30.
- Stock category: Mid cap
- Trending: Steady
- Volatility: High volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold
CATCHERS
Buster Posey: Posey has not yet looked his usual self, and after his hip surgery, that’s probably going to take some time. He’s spent just four of his five games behind the plate and has just one back-to-back game under his belt so far, and is 3-for-18 (.167) at the plate. I think it may take him a couple weeks before he starts to feel like himself again, but vintage Posey is going to return strong, which is why I suggest holding on him for a few weeks before buying heavy.
- Stock category: Blue chip
- Trending: Falling
- Volatility: Low volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold, then buy
Eric Kratz: Kratz did not look particularly good this week. He made an error by dropping a pop fly behind the plate and he’s 0-for-7 at the plate. That’s not to say an underwhelming opening week means all that much. It likely doesn’t. But I have a feeling that unless Kratz, age 38, has a mid-season breakout, Aramis Garcia is going to make his way up to be the Giants’ No. 2 at some point this season. That also might say less about Kratz than Garcia’s youth and hitting last season, but it’s still how I see the Giants’ catching situation playing out.
- Stock category: Mid cap
- Trending: Falling
- Volatility: Medium volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold, then sell
OUTFIELDERS
Steven Duggar: It is difficult to capture just how well Steven Duggar played this week. He looks like a bona fide leadoff man with some pop, incredible range, and an amenable, yet competitive nature which accommodated Kevin Pillar’s arrival, but spurred him on. When a fly ball was sent out near Pillar and Duggar on Wednesday night, Duggar hauled over and called Pillar off with a confidence you might not usually see from such a young outfielder being forced to shift to a position they hadn’t played since high-A baseball in 2017.
He’s 8-for-28 (.286) with a home run, two doubles and a stolen base. He’s one of the Giants’ very few threats on the basepath, and he provides it at the top of the order. He sparked one win already on April 1, and nearly did it on Wednesday night.
His greatest weakness is his concerning strikeout rate (12 strikeouts so far, 2nd in NL, 4th in MLB, has struck out in 40 percent of at-bats), although that seems to be more commonplace in the modern baseball, and could be outweighed by his knack for getting on base, and his .467 BABIP in the early going this season (although that number is certain to come down, and has probably offset some of his issues striking out). Still, his electricity for a sometimes dull Giants offense is invaluable.
- Stock category: High cap
- Trending: Rising
- Volatility: Low volatility
- Recommended strategy: Buy
Gerardo Parra: It’s a weird time for baseball when Bryce Harper can get $330 million, and Gerardo Parra, who batted .284 in 142 games last season, and .309 in 102 games the season prior, is making $1.75 million. He looks like an outstanding pickup for the Giants, with a cannon arm, and solid hitting (5-for-19, 2 RBIs and a double), with pull power to right field. He’s a pretty reliable, veteran presence at age 32, and composes a really reliable defensive outfield along with Duggar and Pillar. He’ll get plenty of playing time.
- Stock category: High cap
- Trending: Rising
- Volatility: Low volatility
- Recommended strategy: Buy
Kevin Pillar: Pillar only has four plate appearances with the Giants so far, but his fielding range and ability is well known. While not heralded as a hitter, his few at-bats have been competitive and he plays hard. It’s impossible to make any sort of judgment after one full game.
- Stock category: High cap
- Trending: N/A
- Volatility: Medium volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold
Connor Joe: Joe was robbed of his first major league hit by Kike Hernandez, and has a really solid arm in the outfield. He walked in his first plate appearance, but has struck out four times and is 0-for-13. He needs to get a hit soon, because while it seems he’s well-liked and Bochy said veterans have been helping him out, there’s only so much time you can wait on a guy to show he should be in the majors. Still, he looks like he sees the ball well and I’d expect him to secure a hit sooner rather than later.
- Stock category: Penny stock
- Trending: Falling
- Volatility: High volatility
- Recommended strategy: Hold
Michael Reed: You have to feel for Michael Reed. Farhan Zaidi apologized for putting him in a difficult situation by starting on opening day, and Reed looked like a fish out of water before he was designated for assignment. The Giants still have apparent interest in bringing him into their minor league system if he clears waivers, but his 0-for-8, five strikeout debut week which featured a collision with Brandon Crawford was hard to watch.
- Stock category: Penny stock
- Trending: Falling
- Volatility: High volatility
- Recommended strategy: Sell
