© Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
As quickly as it arrived, the NFL Combine has gone. After a week of media, teams and hopeful young players all huddled together in Indianapolis, here’s what we learned about the 49ers.
49ers say they’re confident within certainty-devoid wide receiver group
Dante Pettis is one bad offseason away from being cut.
Jalen Hurd may or may not be ready for this offseason — “We think we’re nearing towards a much better place to where he’ll be cleared for all activities… there’s some recent scans and things that give us a lot of hope that that’s going to be the case,” said general manager John Lynch.
Marquise Goodwin will likely be cut despite an insistence by head coach Kyle Shanahan that he’s “too valuable.”
Trent Taylor lost all of last season to a series of horrendous foot surgery complications for what was initially viewed as a minor Jones fracture.
Kendrick Bourne is a restricted free agent.
Emmanuel Sanders is an unrestricted free agent, as is Jordan Matthews.
The only two 49ers who got consistent playing time last season that don’t have significant injuries coming into this offseason, a necessity for significant improvement, or a lack of contract clarity to worry about are Deebo Samuel and Richie James Jr.
James Jr. (7th-best punt return average of 8.00 yards, last among qualified kick returners with a 21.40-yard average) was mostly used as a returner last season, but not exactly a consistent or brilliant decision-making one. Still, as Kyle Shanahan said last week, the 49ers felt more comfortable with him than Pettis.
“We didn’t think [Pettis] was our best guy,” Shanahan said. “And I’d like him to be. He knows that, and I think he’s got a chance to be, but we felt more comfortable with Richie, and I hope Dante tries to take that job from him, but that’s, that’s not my decision. I mean it’s his decision, he’s got to show it and I guess it comes down to my decision but he should make it for me.”
So, the obvious question is, in a wide receiver class that’s been touted as one of the best in recent memory, do the 49ers draft another one early? The Lynch and Shanahan regime has used five draft picks on wide receivers thus far, with two in the second round, one in the third, one in the fifth and one in the seventh. That came after a five-year drought of not drafting a wide receiver in the first three rounds (with A.J. Jenkins in the first round in 2012 the most recent one).
The crazier stat, though, is that the 49ers franchise has drafted a wide receiver in every single year since 2003. The 2002 Draft was the last time San Francisco failed to draft a wide receiver.
Lynch said the organization feels confident in its wide receiver group on February 25 at the Combine, but also acknowledged how talented this draft class is:
“We like our group, I think we like the core of our group,” Lynch said. “The draft class is incredibly strong, this is my fourth combine and it’s as good as I’ve ever seen. The depth of it, the top-end players, it’s a really good class. You kind of get whatever flavor you like. If you like a smaller quicker guy, those guys are there. If you like the big guys that can move, those guys are there. If you like speed, that’s there. If you like separators. And so, I think the whole league is smiling about that.”
Shanahan said something similar about believing in the group in the building and needing health, but also stressed that he, “would love for anything to have Emmanuel [Sanders] back — bad. But we got to see how that plays out.”
If Arik Armstead does return to San Francisco, the only remaining questions will be whether Sanders and Jimmie Ward also return. Regardless, this is a draft, with limited draft picks, where the 49ers need to go for players who project to impact the game significantly from the get-go. It’s why an offensive line pick seems far-fetched (more on that below) and why drafting another wide receiver seems likelier than the front office is understandably letting on.
With just one pick in the first four rounds, though, there’s only one clear way of adding multiple impact players through the draft…
There will be options if (when) the 49ers trade down
Unless CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy fall to the 31st pick, it seems hard to believe the 49ers would keep it. This draft isn’t just deep at wide receiver, and it’s those day two guys who are equally as exciting as the projected first rounders.
One mock draft already has the 49ers trading down with the Miami Dolphins for a late second-, early third- and early fifth-rounder. That seems a high price to move up 25 picks, especially for a team with three in the first round, but a mid-to-early second-round and fourth-round pick, or late second and third round pick aren’t out of the question, especially for tanking teams that are hungry to add as much elite youth as possible.
The New York Jets, at pick No. 48 and with two third-rounders, at pick No. 68 and No. 79, seem like an ideal trade partner. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at No. 48 and No. 76, is another option, as well as the Carolina Panthers, at No. 38 and No. 103.
Going through the last 10 years of the NFL draft, the average number of wide receivers to go in the first three rounds is 13.8, with the most (in 2009) being 15 players and the least (in 2016) being 9. The 2015 and 2009 drafts had the most first-rounders with six, and this draft is shaping up to be much the same way.
Let’s assume that the 49ers trade with the Panthers for that 38th and 103rd pick.
The following receivers will almost certainly be off the board by the early part of the second round: Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs III, Laviska Shenault Jr., Justin Jefferson, Jalen Raegor.
There’s a chance that Denzel Mims and Brandon Aiyuk go before that point, or Shenault or Jefferson drop into the early second. Then you have Clemson wide receiver Tee Higgins, who’s much in the mold of A.J. Green (long, tall, athletic, shifty, not based around physicality despite size), K.J. Hamler, who seems built to be a slot legend, and Florida’s Van Jefferson.
Even if the 49ers trade back to 45 or 48, they’ll probably have a chance at one of those wide receivers, and if they opt to go with another position there, they’ll have a shot at the second-tier wide receivers like Minnesota’s Tyler Johnson or South Carolina’s Bryan Edwards in the third round.
This draft stands out as one to go after impact skill positions like wide receiver and defensive back, and with all five of the 49ers’ defensive starters set to be free agents by next year, they might well opt to go for a pick at defensive back.
They’ll have options at safety if they don’t bring back Jimmie Ward, in Cal’s Ashtyn Davis (whose agent is good friends with Lynch), Minnesota’s Antoine Winfield Jr., Lenoir-Rhyne’s Kyle Dugger and Southern Illinois’ Jeremy Chinn. All are athletic, bursty safeties who figure to be able to plug and play at slot corner if needed.
There are also plenty of corners, like Ohio State’s Damon Arnette, TCU’s Jeff Gladney (who has truly impressive tape), Alabama’s Trevon Diggs, Clemson’s A.J. Terrell, Auburn’s Noah Igbinoghene and Virginia’s Bryce Hall.
This is all to say that there are an absolute ton of impact players that will be waiting in the second and third rounds, and the 49ers would be foolish not to trade out of that first round slot unless someone they’re genuinely enamored with falls to 31.
That Lynch-Shanahan divide? If it was ever real, it clearly isn’t any longer
Remember when Kyle Shanahan called that report of friction between him and Lynch “complete bullshit”? That seems as accurate as ever, though Lynch, the former All-Pro safety, acknowledged after the Super Bowl that he initially didn’t understand why Shanahan didn’t call a timeout at the end of the first half before he settled down and felt alright with the decision.
John Lynch wanted the timeout #SuperBowl pic.twitter.com/1e5ONS7VGQ
— Kevin Boilard (@KevinBoilard) February 3, 2020
His admission of that belies the solid working relationship between the joint heads of the 49ers’ operation and that yes, there are disagreements, as exist in every functioning office. But seems that their disagreements in that report may have been overblown, or at least weren’t as chasmic as they were purported to be.
At the Combine, both held a similar tone and messaging in that they want to effectively run it back while adding pieces through the draft. The pair were honored there together with 2019’s Best Draft Award, along with the rest of the 49ers staff who appeared there together.
None of what Shanahan and Lynch did at the Combine was revelatory, but it was further evidence of what’s apparent from every day on the 49ers’ practice field. They’re talking, joking, openly, constantly, daily. For whatever disagreements they have, it’s clear they can figure out how to move past them, and their Super Bowl appearance is proof that the relationship is maybe the defining factor of the 49ers’ upstart success.
McKinnon restructure is in the works, but he or Coleman (or Breida) will have to go
If the 49ers were to cut Jerick McKinnon today, they’d save about $4 million (with $4 million in dead cap, split over the next two years). If they cut Tevin Coleman today, they’d save $4.9 million. Matt Breida is a restricted free agent, and will probably be due the $2.14 million free agency tender.
Bringing all three back would be fiscally irresponsible. Raheem Mostert is clearly safe, and Jeff Wilson Jr., whose ERFA money will have almost no impact on the cap, should be part of the team’s medium-term plans. With Kyle Juscyzk also onboard, there’s no way the 49ers keep all three of McKinnon, Coleman and Breida. Cutting Wilson would be the only way to make that possible.
That’s why McKinnon’s representatives are working with the 49ers to restructure his deal. If he doesn’t take a pay cut, he’s gone. He’s missed two seasons and would save the 49ers too much money for anything else to be the case.
Shanahan loves Coleman, despite him doing a relatively similar job to Jeff Wilson Jr. If it was better, it wasn’t noticeable. The greatest mistake the 49ers could make would be cutting Wilson and keeping one of McKinnon, Coleman and Breida. It would be sacrificing cap space for an insignificant difference in production, to lose Wilson, who is arguably the best past-catcher and goal-line weapon in the backfield.
The result of the McKinnon negotiations will immediately reveal much about how the 49ers view their backfield next season.
Drafting an O-lineman? Unless one drops, don’t bet on it happening early
At some point, the 49ers’ offensive line will need to get younger. Mike Person is 31, and dealt with a nagging neck injury last season. Weston Richburg is 28, but has suffered serious leg injuries in back-to-back seasons (a torn quadriceps which he played through for 12 games in 2018, and a torn patella tendon which ended his 2019 season). Joe Staley is now 35.
But the 49ers seem to rightfully feel comfortable with where they’re at with the offensive line thanks to Daniel Brunskill (age 25) and Justin Skule (age 23). Brunskill was scooped up from the San Diego Fleet in the AAF and Skule was a four-year starter at Vanderbilt. They got the very rare opportunity to see both play extended time thanks to long injury absences from Staley and Mike McGlinchey.
Brunskill also played at right guard for the last two weeks of the regular season when Person’s neck pain became untenable and Brunskill provided a necessary reprieve. Shanahan said he viewed Brunskill more as a guard, but that he “surprised” him at tackle and can probably play center if needed. The 49ers will also feel comfortable with their backup at center if they can bring back Ben Garland (age 31) on a team-friendly deal.
When asked how he views getting younger on the offensive line, Lynch, who said the 49ers are scouting the XFL the same way they scouted the AAF, pointed to the impressive performances by Skule and Brunskill.
“They picked us up in a big way that’s for sure,” Lynch said. “We brought [Brunskill] in never knowing you know how well he could play for us and I give Danny, first and foremost, the most credit because he picked us up in a big big way, as Justin did as well, Skule, so those guys were huge for us. We think there’s only room for growth for those guys moving forward.”
