This is the best part of the draft cycle. This is the time where we all collectively proclaim whether a team nailed it or whiffed. Usually, it’s somewhere in between.
And while there’s a pervasive sense of belief in the front office, and fans want to believe every pick will be a success, the reality is that most selections don’t work out.
So, here’s a look at the 49ers’ 2022 draft class with consideration given to the team’s needs, how that player is expected to fit into the team and what sort of value the selections had.
Round 2, Pick 61 – Drake Jackson, EDGE, USC
Jackson was projected by some to go a bit higher and was at least in the conversation to be a fringe first-round pick. Him being available at Pick 61 was not a total shock, but it was on the lower end of where he was expected to go.
Part of that fall might have to do with the fact that his weight changed substantially from the NFL Combine to his pro day. He weighed in around 240 pounds at the combine before adding about 30 for his pro day.
Jackson said that was intentional; he was working with linebackers and wanted to be lighter, discernibly, for improved testing scores. His playing weight, he said, will probably stick around his pro day weight of roughly 270 pounds.
It’s a no-brainer pick from the 49ers. He’s long, quick, strong and has all the raw attributes you’d look for in an edge prospect.
In evaluating edge rushers, part of the equation becomes about how much you trust your defensive line coach to develop players. The 49ers trust Kris Kocurek as much as anyone in the league, so there’s an element of, “Hey, just swing on an athlete who shows flashes on tape and is willing to learn.”
If you have someone open-minded, who is open to criticism and hungry to improve, coupled with a base level of raw talent, you’re going to bet that Kocurek can turn that into a productive player.
Jackson’s issues at times are that he doesn’t totally know how to use his size and can stumble around a bit. He’s not uber quick off the line, so sometimes you’ll see him look off balance and get out-leveraged by offensive linemen.
That said, there’s so much more to like. He has the play strength and eye positioning to hold the edge and disengage to attack the ball carrier. You’d like to see him add a more reliable long arm move that could maximize his nearly seven-foot wingspan, but he’s flashed hand quickness and a two-hand swipe move to the inside, and a speed and bend to the outside that set a solid foundation for him as an edge rusher.
He has the size, mobility and flexibility to become an every down player. As long as he, as appears, is a hard worker with a desire to improve and take coaching, there’s a very real potential for him to become a long-term complement to Nick Bosa.
Quick-fire review: Good value with high upside and should become a valuable edge presence with Kris Kocurek’s help, as long as he’s as coachable as he seems.
Round 3, Pick 93 – Ty Davis-Price, RB, LSU
This was a bit of a head-scratcher at the time. He was viewed by just about every account as a roughly fifth-round value, with some projecting a bit earlier and some a bit later.
The 49ers’ brass says there’s always a desire to find out how the league values a player, but it comes down to selecting a player you like, and they liked Davis-Price.
There’s a few ways to look at this pick. There is the reality that for the second-straight year, they selected a running back in the third round and clearly don’t see a bright future for Trey Sermon in this offense. That is a poor use of assets, especially given the success this team has had in finding late-round or undrafted value with their running backs.
That said, there’s the positive side that at least they do not subscribe to the sunk cost fallacy. They could say that, “Well, we traded up to get Sermon, we really shouldn’t waste another third-round pick on a running back.” Clearly, they realized that Sermon is not working out and recognized the need in the backfield.
Deebo Samuel discernibly does not want to be used as a “wide back,” Elijah Mitchell was injured just about the entirety of the year, it’s unclear if Jeff Wilson Jr. can ever recapture the form he’s found intermittently, Sermon looks like he’s on the outs and JaMycal Hasty is an iffy third-down back.
You can see a clear fit for Davis-Price. He’s a wider back with burst that often surprises opponents on film and is supported by an elite 10-yard split time, which is a solid athletic indicator of success in Shanahan’s wide-zone heavy system.
As a bigger back from LSU, it’s natural to be reminded of Leonard Fournette. Davis-Price broke his single-game rushing record last season with 287 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns, but on about 20 more carries than Fournette.
He is similar in the sense that the first thing you see from him is a commitment to pummeling linebackers and safeties. He displays a consistent level of aggression and has a propensity to gain extra yardage on most plays because of that physicality.
Now, the issue is that he doesn’t have the upper-tier athleticism or elusive traits you see from the game’s leading backs. Behind the line of scrimmage, he’s excellent at hesitation or side-stepping to create the time and space needed to attack, but beyond that, he’s a fairly straightforward runner who leans on speed and power.
That’s not to say he won’t be effective. He appears much more like an every-down back than Mitchell, and has the willing physicality to take the load off him and Samuel. That said, it was earlier than expected because that elite upside doesn’t appear to be there and the 49ers probably could have traded back to acquire another pick and still selected him.
Given the need at running back and clear fit, he has the potential to be extremely productive in year one, so it’s hard to criticize it too harshly, but it does seem like they overvalued him a bit.
Quick-fire review:: Probably a bit early without elite traits, but has the frame, aggression to be productive and lessen the load on Mitchell, Samuel.
Round 3, Pick 105 – Danny Gray, WR, SMU
It’s tough to know what to make of Gray, in large part, because his college quarterback Tanner Mordecai had a noodle arm. Call that harsh, but they had Gray running a heavy dose of 9 or “go routes” up the seam and it’s awfully difficult to evaluate him because his quarterback never threw him the ball in stride.
He was in a role that was essentially “run straight, run fast” and he did that excellently. When he had the ball in his hands with a glimmer of space, you rarely ever saw anyone catch up to him.
So in that sense, you can very clearly see how he’d fit in. The 49ers got a guy who ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash and unlike some players, actually plays like it.
They have a quarterback coming in who has a cannon for an arm and has the ability to attack the deep third of the field. And they have a coach who is excellent at manufacturing touches, so Gray’s lack of route-running polish and experience might be mitigated by Shanahan’s creativity.
That said, Gray had a serious issue with drops in college, dropping seven passes last season. He weighs just 186 pounds, so there’s a concern that if he doesn’t bulk up, there could be a damning tentativeness towards attacking the ball, especially in traffic, a la Dante Pettis.
He is a true boom-or-bust prospect. The middle ground is being someone like Marquise Goodwin who’s a true speedster, but just never that effective. Not all great athletes make great wide receivers, and given Gray’s weird college situation, it’s sort of hard to tell how he’ll pan out.
At the very least, the 49ers added someone who can take the top off the defense and potentially provide a real deep threat target that Lance could use.
Quick-fire review: Boom-or-bust speed demon who could flame out of the league, be Marquise Goodwin 2.0, or be a diamond.
Round 4, Pick 134 – Spencer Burford, OL, UTSA
This might be my favorite pick of the 49ers’ draft, and that’s even acknowledging that they declined to select Wake Forest’s Zach Tom, maybe my favorite player in the draft who went a few selections later to the Packers.
Burford is a bully who is proactive, aggressive and extremely quick off the line. To make an out-and-out Trent Williams comparison would be absurd, but the way he attacks linebackers at the second level with speed is decidedly similar.
You can see exactly how he fits in the scheme. The speed and power he shows when pulling, reaching and climbing all suggest he can be an excellent run blocker.
There are some questions as to whether he’s a guard or a tackle, but he looks more like a tackle to me and absolutely has the length for it. The other concerns are about his technique. He can leave himself open and put too much weight on his back foot, making him vulnerable to inside moves.
But the promising thing is that Burford is aware of how he needs to improve. He was brutally honest in his post-draft assessment, saying that he can sacrifice his technique at times because he’s so naturally aggressive.
He believes he needs to play more under control and stop putting so much weight on the inside of his foot.
On the other side, though, he described himself as relentless and not one to take a play off.
“I play hard all the time,” Burford said. “I treat the game as a sacred field you play on. The game means a lot to me, so I’m not going to disrespect he it.”
That persistent aggression and self-awareness coupled with excellent striking and a comfortability in zone schemes bode well for his future.
Quick-fire review: Mean, aggressive, athletic offensive linemen who’s a scheme fit and self-aware enough that he should be productive in year one.
Round 5, Pick 172 – Samuel Womack, CB, Toledo
This is a tough evaluation because corners, innately, are the toughest position to evaluate. Couple that with a lack of available All-22 tape and you’re left guessing. If you’re a real sicko, feel free to get hyped with this fan cut-up.
Womack certainly fits in a similar frame as K’Waun Williams at 5’9″, 189 pounds and showed encouraging speed on tape and in testing, running a 4.4-second 40-yard dash. He described himself as a proactive and engaged tackler who loves to blitz.
He’s a guy we won’t know too much about until training camp, but this is the round where the 49ers have had so much success leaning on their scouting department and area scouts. Clearly, they think he hast the potential to start in the slot.
Quick-fire review: They want him to replace K’Waun Williams, and this is where you trust the scouts to get it right.
Round 6, Pick 187 – Nick Zakelj, OL, Fordham
This might be the most uncertain pick, and at least the one, this far, who might have the worst chance to make the roster. He’s a little like Colton McKivitz in that there’s some athletic upside, but he’s sort of a tweener.
He doesn’t look like he can anchor well enough to successfully transition to guard and has some issues with his stubby arms at tackle. Rushers consistently get into his chest and his poor pad level has him getting stood up too often.
That said, he’s quick and efficient in the run game with the requisite desire and speed to execute pull blocks and climb to the second level. He plays through the whistle which might be the most encouraging thing on tape, and something he’ll need to show at camp, because he’s certainly going to be project with a lot of room to improve.
One-sentence review: Has the athleticism, persistence and aggression to be successful, but missing many requisite tools and could be a practice squad candidate.
Round 6, Pick 220 – Kalia Davis, DT, UCF
The question with Davis is his health. He’s recovering from a torn ACL and the 49ers suggested he’s going to be a candidate to go on the physically unable to perform list. There’s a chance he never comes off that list, depending on how the defensive line and his rehab goes.
That said, he’s an awesome prospect. He came to UCF as a linebacker, then moved to edge, then to defensive tackle, where he played five games before his injury.
What you see from him is outstanding burst off the line and him frequently visiting the opposing backfield. Because he’s just barely 6 feet, he is almost always the low man in his battles, and as we all know, low man wins.
It’s easy to see why Kris Kocurek fell in love with him. If he gets back to where he was in his last year health-wise, he’s got real potential to contribute in a similar way to D.J. Jones.
That’s saying a lot given his lack of experience there, but the tape and athleticism is very impressive. The 49ers clearly think they got a steal here if he can get healthy.
One-sentence review: Burst, wiggle, speed, power in a stout frame; if he gets healthy, he could be a cheap D.J. Jones replacement.
Round 6, Pick 221 – Tariq Castro-Fields, CB, Penn State
If Castro-Fields mitigates his disaster potential, he can be very, very good. He has all the requisite measurables, and while it’s sort of an old school scout-ism to say he looks the part, he absolutely does.
And he played against elite competition in the Big 10. He was tasked with covering some of the better wide receiving prospects in college football, including Chris Olave, who he performed well against.
Maybe it was whiplash from Josh Norman and all the defensive pass interference calls of the early season, but Castro-Fields is a guy who is not very grabby. He generally shadowed receivers pretty well without being penalized.
Now, his issues are substantial. He was caught out by double moves a concerning number of times, appearing over-eager to make plays. His tackling is woeful.
The 49ers remained competitive despite subpar corner play last season because they played safe. And at least Trevon Diggs picked the ball off 10-plus times with his hyper aggression, whereas Castro-Fields had three picks in five years.
That’s not damning by any stretch, because interceptions are generally an overrated evaluation tool, but if you’re going to be aggressive for the ball, you better come up with it. That said, if he can learn to play under control, he has very significant upside.
One-sentence review: Genuine starter potential given his frame, fluidity, lack of penalties, but needs to erase home-run reception potential or could miss the roster entirely.
Round 7, Pick 262 – Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State
Love it. This basically ensured the 49ers didn’t have to worry about the undrafted free agent process and got a quarterback who processes the game in the way they like with some athleticism, too.
Now, he’s a very small quarterback prospect at a tick over six feet, but he has very solid footwork and delivered the ball with pace. He had an outstanding college career. The 49ers were going to need at least another camp arm anyway, and Purdy has some traits they think are Nick Mullens-esque.
He’s probably not making the roster, but saving yourself the headache of the undrafted free agent process with the quarterback position is a good call.
One-sentence review: Why not? They needed a fourth arm for camp and he showed solid college skills, at least enough to be a guy to keep on the practice squad.
Undrafted free agents
The 49ers conspicuously left safety and center unaddressed through the draft. They made amends with their undrafted free agent class.
Dohnovan West, the Arizona State product, is a major coup and was expected to be drafted as early as the fourth round. Whatever the concerns were that prevented him from being selected, he’s a functional athlete with familiarity in a number of concepts with a sound head on his shoulders. He can absolutely make the team, especially if Alex Mack ends up retiring.
The other option is Jason Poe from Mercer. He is arguably the best pulling offensive linemen in this draft class and has genuinely astonishing speed. He was viewed as a guard/fullback. You read that correctly. His athleticism and aggression in zone blocking schemes is jaw-droppingly good. Here’s a highlight reel you need to watch.
The only reason he went undrafted is because he’s less than 6’1″, but as a center prospect, that might not matter if he can anchor, and he looked fairly solid against Alabama this year. You could make a case for him to play defensive tackle and it wouldn’t be stunning if he took reps there. That said, he should have a real chance to make the roster as an interior offensive lineman, despite his size.
The other interesting moves were picking up a few of safeties with Leon O’Neal from Texas A&M the most notable name. He should be able to compete at the strong safety spot, with San Diego State’s Tayler Hawkins and UCLA’s Qwuantrezz Knight other options there too.
One-sentence review: Eased concerns of eschewing center through the draft and brought competition to the safety position; everything else is a bonus.
Overall review
The main criticism I had for the draft was leaving center unaddressed, but there was a pretty chasmic drop-off in quality after about Round 3 and by picking up West and Poe, they have some options to make the roster there, even if Mack returns, or if they sign J.C. Tretter to replace him.
Safety was left mostly unaddressed and O’Neal doesn’t exactly seem like a stellar coverage player. Unless they re-sign Jaquiski Tartt, strong safety remains a major concern that leans too heavily on a couple special teams aces in George Odum and Talanoa Hufanga (or Tarvarius Moore, after an Achilles recovery).
Jackson was a clear, smart pick to begin. Davis-Price makes sense, but the 49ers probably overvalued him and could have picked up additional assets.
Georgia’s Zamir White, generally considered to be a better prospect with a similar frame, wasn’t selected until Pick 122. It’s hard to think the 49ers couldn’t have moved back a few slots and still gotten their man.
They also could have attacked safety with that selection, especially with Maryland’s Nick Cross available and selected just three picks later.
Maybe they felt Cross was too similar to Jimmie Ward and not as viable in an in-the-box sort of role, but that’s not exactly the worst thing in the world, given Ward is entering the final year of his deal and is approaching 31. He’s also just a fantastic player, so those similarities aren’t a real problem.
Danny Gray is a boom-or-bust pick, but when taking leaps of faith on athleticism is a much more promising approach than betting on unathletic players who show decent qualities on tape. He might miss, but the upside is extremely high. I don’t mind it.
The only potential criticism of the Spencer Burford pick is that Wake Forest’s Zach Tom was on the board, but that’s more of a personal critique. Burford looks like he’s going to be a great contributor and there’s a chance he could be Mike McGlinchey’s right tackle replacement in a year.
Womack is a trust-the-scouts pick. The 49ers seem to think he can replace K’Waun Williams. We will soon find out.
I’m not sold on Zakelj, but the athleticism and the will to finish plays is there, so the thesis behind his selection checks out. He’ll have to figure out a position, though, because the whole “he can play a lot of positions” generally means you’re really just subpar at a lot of spots and teams just keep moving you until something sticks.
If he gets healthy, Kalia Davis is an awesome, springy addition to the defensive line room who the team believes is a bit similar to D.J. Jones in all the right ways. Castro-Fields is sort of a boom-or-bust corner, but he’s got massive upside and encouraging size and athleticism with a Big 10 pedigree. The back-to-back picks are big swings, which is exactly what you should do at the end of Round 6.
Purdy is a good call to end it. It’s hard to criticize the last pick of the draft. At worst, he’s a camp arm. At best, he turns out to be an even mini-er Colt McCoy.
On the whole, it’s an ok draft, without too much to say the 49ers nailed it or completely blew it. Jackson sort of fell into their laps, and their next pick feels of Davis-Price feels like a reach and the biggest room for criticism, especially if Cross turns out to be an exceptional safety, but he should help from the get go.
Gray was a swing for the fences. Burford has year one swing tackle potential. Only the scouts know about Womack. Zakelj is iffy with some upside, while both Davis and Castro-Fields are smart swings at huge upside. Purdy is fine.
Grades are innately dumb given that we haven’t seen any of these guys play, but for the sake of being like everyone else, the 49ers get a B.
They got a very solid prospect to start, seemed to overvalue their next one without addressing safety, then took a bunch of half-court heaves. Maybe they come up empty, but at least they bet on athletes.
