You might think ESPN’s piece claiming the Panthers won the Christian McCaffrey trade was published before last Sunday, but that’s not the case. The World Wide Leader still thinks San Francisco got the short end of the stick after McCaffrey was responsible for three touchdowns — one passing, one receiving, one rushing — in the resounding win over the Rams.
Seth Walder, who graded every single deal at the deadline, gave the 49ers a C- minus for dealing second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2023 and a fifth-round pick in 2024 for the former All-Pro. He gave the Panthers an A- grade for the deal.
Walder’s thinking is as follows: The Shanahan 49ers, perhaps more than anyone, have shown that running back is not a premium position in terms of value. The likes of Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson Jr. all were extremely efficient in Shanahan’s system, despite being unheralded coming into the league.
There’s also McCaffrey’s health — he missed 23 of 33 games — over the past two seasons, and his age. While 26 isn’t exactly long in the tooth, McCaffrey is in his sixth NFL season. For running backs — a position that takes a massive toll on the body — that means he’s a grizzled veteran. How rare is it for a back in their sixth season or later to rush for over 1,000 yards? It hasn’t happened in four years (LeSean McCoy and Mark Ingram II in 2017).
Finally, there’s the draft compensation. Here’s what Walder says on that point:
The draft capital is the other part of this. At least it wasn’t a first-rounder, though San Francisco’s Day 1 selection already belongs to the Dolphins. But losing a second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-round pick will have ripple effects for years to come. Draft picks are like credit cards; this costs the 49ers nothing now, but they will feel it three years from now. There’s a counterargument that the 49ers have so many compensatory third-rounders via the hirings of Mike McDaniel, Robert Saleh and Martin Mayhew elsewhere that it makes it easier for them to make this deal, but that, to me, is just surplus fallacy. Those were assets that could have been used elsewhere.
Of course we all know the counterpoint. McCaffrey is an awesome player, as last Sunday showed. On most days, he’s the most talented player on the field. In a wide open NFC, with San Francisco firmly in win now mode after making two NFC Championships in the last three years, now is the time to push the chips into the middle of the table.
With so much parity, it could be reasonably argued that the move for McCaffrey could be the difference in the 49ers making the Super Bowl this season. As we saw with the Rams last year, sometimes mortgaging the future is worth going all in right now.
Sure the Panthers might have won the trade on paper, but if the 49ers hoist the Lombardi, no one will care.
