On the Castro Theatre stage, before a screening of the new “Say Hey, Willie Mays!” documentary, Hall of Fame broadcaster Jon Miller listed out some of the esteemed guests in attendance.
There was Giants president Larry Baer. There was Mays’ son, Michael. Two former San Francisco mayors in the audience.
When Miller got to new Giants general manager Pete Putila, a fan in the back left corner of the theater welcomed Putila on behalf of all of San Francisco.
“SIGN JUDGE!” the fan yelled.
It wasn’t even the first time in his brief Giants tenure Putila has been badgered about Aaron Judge, the free agent coming off the most prolific power season since Barry Bonds in 2001. The four-time All-Star who could be the next face of the Giants franchise, continuing a lineage from Clark to Bonds to Lincecum to Posey.
It doesn’t take a tea leaf reader to connect Judge — the Linden, CA native who grew up rooting for Rich Aurilia — to the San Francisco Giants. Vegas odds circulating peg the Giants as the most likely destination for the American League single-season home run champ if he does
The Giants need a star. They need something to help reverse the concerning trend of declining attendance, to rejuvenate the fanbase. They need a player who can not only play, but perform every day.
But the star doesn’t have to be Aaron Judge. And depending on how haywire his negotiations go once free agency opens this week, perhaps it shouldn’t be Aaron Judge.
Judge is 6-foot-7, 282 pounds. His ginormous stature is part of what makes him great. He can generate a rare amount of torque and rarely expands out of his massive strike zone.
But it should also raise some alarm.
Experts are unsure exactly what impact size has on injury risk, but history can inform future outcomes. And the track record of hitters Judge’s size performing at a high level through their 30s is rare.
There have been 68 recorded seasons of non-pitchers standing 6-foot-6 or taller playing who are at least 30 years old. Four — Aaron Judge in 2022, Frank Howard in 1969 and Dave Winfield twice — ended in 5-plus WAR seasons, which is considered All-Star caliber.
Of those 68, 23 seasons ended with none or negative WAR. In 20, the player appeared in less than 81 games.
Big MLB sluggers age like small point guards in the NBA. Perhaps Judge is more Chris Paul than Allen Iverson, but his personal track record would make that unlikely.
Judge’s games played since his rookie season are 155, 112, 102, 28 in the 60-game season, 148 and 157. His injuries include two calf strains, an oblique strain and a fractured wrist.
Part of Judge’s appeal is that he can play a solid outfield, but that diving for balls and sprinting into Triples Alley puts miles on any 30-year-old’s body.
How he’ll age isn’t the only potential warning sign on Judge.
When Judge went 1-for-16 in this year’s ALCS, it wasn’t terribly shocking. He’d gone 1-for-20 in the 2017 ALDS against Cleveland. He’d gone 3-for-21 — albeit with two bombs — in New York’s 2020 ALDS loss to Tampa.
Picking out individual playoff series to conclude a guy isn’t “clutch” is foolish. The sample size is too small. But repeated October shortcomings can be a factor to consider.
Just about every player’s numbers drop in the playoffs. The best playoff performers produce in the same manner in the postseason as they do in the regular season; Derek Jeter hit .310 in his career in the regular season and .308 in the playoffs.
Judge has played 44 playoff games. In them, he’s hit .211 with a .310 on-base percentage. His 13 homers drive his OPS up to .772, which is respectable but far below his career regular season average (.977).
Part of the reason nobody will ever complain about the Bryce Harper contract is because he turned into Wolverine this postseason and towed the Phillies to the World Series. Judge has put together impressive series — a 2018 sweep to Boston and a 2019 DS against Minnesota — but for some reason hasn’t carried a team through the postseason quite like Harper.
Then there’s the contract. No player has ever hit the open market after a season as magnificent as Judge’s historic 2022 campaign. Before the season began, he famously turned down New York’s seven-year, $215.5 million extension offer.
Now he could sign one of the richest deals in the history of the sport.
Such a deal can save or sink a franchise. The Phillies wouldn’t have made their run to the 2022 World Series without Harper (13 years, $330 million). Perhaps the Angels would have been relevant for the past decade if they avoided the Albert Pujols (10 years, $210 million) monstrosity.
Harper signed his contract at 26 years old. Pujols was 32. Mookie Betts inked his 12-year, $365 million extension at 28. Giancarlo Stanton’s $325 million deal kicked in when he was 28.
The value of a potential Judge megadeal rests on how many more prime, MVP-level years he has and how quickly he’ll decline.
If Judge puts together three more 5-plus WAR seasons and another couple All-Star campaigns, he’d be worth the money even if he falls off in the last few years.
If Judge rapidly declines after one or two All-Star seasons and struggles staying on the field, the contract could become a disaster. It’s an actuarial game.
Fangraphs projects Judge’s next contract to be worth eight years, $300 million. Given the maxim of Farhan Zaidi’s former boss Andrew Friedman — If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent — that number could balloon even higher.
Based on the way the Giants have spent recently, that type of financial commitment could inhibit them from chasing the next round of star free agents, like Shohei Ohtani in 2024.
Might the Giants be able to better allocate that $300 million into multiple impact players, then Judge wouldn’t be the most savvy signing. Might Judge continue doing unspeakable things to baseballs and become the next Barry Bonds in the Bay, no amount of decline in 2029 or 2030 will matter.
Judge would instantly sell tickets and jerseys, regardless of how big the checks Giants ownership is cutting him. But there’s something else that sells out stadiums: winning. And there’s a world where Judge isn’t the best driver of winning for the next decade.
If the choice is Judge or one of the star shortstops and a high-AAV, short-term starting pitcher, it’s quite possible the latter option generates more wins for a Giants team with more than one hole to fill.
The simple questions at the core of Judge are how much is he worth, and for how long will he be worth it? It’s a philosophical question of value in baseball that teams make with every major decision.
The query is one Judge doesn’t answer perfectly. Perhaps no free agent, ever, does.
But how much on-field value Judge can possibly provide over the course of a possibly decade-long, $300-million contract is a question the Castro Theatre “SIGN JUDGE” guy should consider, and something that will cause sleepless nights for the Giants’ front office this winter.
