The Giants are at a crossroads. This 2016 team is plenty capable of continuing the even-year title run, but has one glaring weakness. To nobody’s surprise, we’re talking about the bullpen. And while it’s easy to identify the problem, it’s not as easy to address it. Many fans think general manager Bobby Evans can just send any mid-level prospect to the Yankees to acquire a top arm like Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman, but that’s simply not the way the baseball world works.
The Giants can go in any number of directions. To understand the landscape, it’s important to keep at least a loose grip on reality: you can’t land a top-tier closer without giving up talented players in return.
For Evans and the Giants, that means guys that have already succeeded at the major league level, like Joe Panik or Matt Duffy, or a blue-chip prospect like shortstop Christian Arroyo.
Recent reports had the Yankees requiring a player like Kyle Schwarber from the Cubs in return for Miller. Schwarber is still recovering from a devastating left knee injury, but has the talent to command an arm like Miller’s as he’s already hit 16 home runs in his first 236 major league at-bats. If that’s what the Yankees are asking from the Cubs, you can bet they’re telling Evans they want to hear Panik or Duffy’s name to get a conversation going.
While Evans isn’t on record as saying those guys are untouchable, this writer’s semi-educated opinion is that the Giants aren’t willing to break up their homegrown infield.
Shutdown closers don’t grow on trees, which is why the Giants are in the market for one. The problem is they’re not alone. The Cubs, who have a much deeper farm system than the Giants, are just one of many “buyers” as the Aug. 1 trade deadline approaches.
The Giants prospects that would get any GM to pick up the phone are Arroyo, right-handed pitcher Tyler Beede and first baseman Chris Shaw. Shortstop Lucius Fox and right-hander Phil Bickford are a bit further from the major leagues, but are still potential trade chips at Evans’ disposal.
The problem is that even these top prospects, save for maybe Arroyo, aren’t going to cut it on their own if the Giants are looking for a pitcher of Miller or Chapman’s ilk. A 1-for-1 deal is unlikely, which would mean the Giants need to scrape together an attractive package.
But the Giants, dating back to when Evans’ mentor Brian Sabean was general manager, have a tendency to hold on to their top prospects. Sending Zack Wheeler to the New York Mets for Carlos Beltran is the lone recent exception to that unwritten rule.
So if the Giants are unwilling to move a major leaguer and hesitant to deplete their already-thin farm system, it brings us back to the harsh reality that hoisting another even-year trophy will require some creativity. As Mike Krukow said on KNBR Monday morning, there’s no in-house option qualified to take over 9th inning responsibilities from Santiago Casilla. While Bruce Bochy has shown a preference for sticking with his veterans, he’s also not blind to the situation and is surely coming up with Plans A, B and C that aren’t dependent on a trade. The obvious plans aren’t very attractive, though. Sergio Romo has recorded the last out of a World Series before, but Krukow says he’s not ready yet. Derek Law has had an impressive start to his big league career, but has never handled the 9th in ‘The Show.’ Hunter Strickland still hasn’t learned how to paint corners with his overpowering fastball.
The Giants can still opt to go in a different direction and acquire a less dominant reliever at a discounted rate, like the Red Sox did when they traded for Brad Ziegler last week. But to get Ziegler, a 36-year-old with a 27/15 K/BB ratio this season, Boston still had to give up two decent prospects in Jose Almonte and Luis Alejandro Basabe.
Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles did a nice job of listing a few mid-level relievers the Giants could target and that is likely the direction Evans takes. In 2010 (Javier Lopez), 2012 (Marco Scutaro and Hunter Pence) and 2014 (Mike Morse), the Giants made moves that addressed glaring needs en route to a World Series win. Evans is surely kicking tires around the league and the Giants will eventually land some form of bullpen help, but expecting a 9th inning savior is a fool’s errand.
