When the Giants signed Johnny Cueto to a six-year deal in 2015 just days after signing Jeff Samardzija to a five-year contract, morale in San Francisco skyrocketed.
Signing two top pitchers to bolster a struggling and aging rotation seemed the perfect fix, and the combination of ace Madison Bumgarner and Cueto delivered arguably the best one-two punch in baseball.
For the majority of 2016, it was. But there were bigger, unforeseen holes the front office missed (see: the bullpen) that ultimately led to the demise of the even year dynasty.
But 2017 was promising! Or so we thought.
Out of the abundance of “what’s going on?!” questions swirling through the Giants’ trying season, the once-prized starting rotation is a big one. Especially when you wonder what happened to the aforementioned one-two combo that stymied hitters throughout the league. Well the answer to number one is easy; Bumgarner crashed his dirt bike. But what exactly is going on with Cueto?
When Cueto signed with San Francisco, he was fresh off a World Series championship with Kansas City after being traded at the deadline from Cincinnati. He didn’t have his best stuff that second half, certainly not when compared to his seven-year career with the Reds. He made his debut for Cincy in 2008, but really “shimmied” into stardom in 2011 when he kept his ERA under 3.00 for four consecutive seasons and notched an All-Star selection in 2014. He led the Reds to three playoff appearances, including one against the Giants in 2012.
So when Kansas City picked up Cueto, he was a sure-fire boost to a team that was determined for redemption after a Game 7 World Series loss in 2014 courtesy of you-know-who. He struggled however, going 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA. But when the 2015 postseason came along, he responded by clinching the winner-take-all Game 5 against Houston in the ALDS and never looked back.
Then came the Giants, desperate to remove some of the workload off of Bumgarner’s shoulders (not that he couldn’t handle it, however). Cueto was the perfect candidate and showed it. His 2.79 ERA was good for fifth in the majors, right behind Bumgarner’s 2.74. He hurled five complete games that year, with only Chris Sale delivering more (six). He was named the National League’s starting pitcher in the All-Star game and powered 219.2 innings throughout the season. Come the NLDS, he dominated, but his one mistake to Javier Baez in Game 1 proved the difference maker in a nail-biting pitchers’ duel against the Cubs’ Jon Lester. If it wasn’t for that infamous Game 4, the Cubs would’ve seen Cueto again, something that manager Joe Maddon admitted they didn’t want to do.
The thing about Cueto is he’s a competitor. He was exactly the kind of guy the Giants needed when they wanted to revamp in 2016. In fact, he still is. But in a season where literally nothing has gone right for San Francisco, the fact that he’s lacking his best stuff isn’t a dire concern, yet. Cueto missed the majority of Spring Training caring for his father, a factor that he’s admitted impacted him, and battled blister issues early in the first half. He’s competed as an interim ace in place of Bumgarner and struggled, albeit there hasn’t been much to compete for this season.
After the worst first half in franchise history, everybody is in need of a fresh start, Cueto included. At the All-Star break, he sits at 6-7 with a 4.51 ERA, and although it’s not his worst stat line, it’s far from his best. But it’s still not the kind of line the Giants were willing to break the bank for. For the amount of money invested in him, Cueto needs to return to star-caliber sooner rather than later.
Luckily for the Giants, the second half is here. And with the announcement of Bumgarner making his return back to the rotation on Saturday (insert confetti here), there’s already much more to look forward to for San Francisco than there’s been all first half. Cueto is slated to kick off the second half Friday in San Diego, giving him the perfect opportunity to start fresh and on a high note. The G-men won’t compete for a spot come September, but they can compete to see where they’ll stand in 2018 and what potential issues may arise next season.
This is where Cueto’s struggles come in to play. The Giants have tied up so much money in Cueto over the next four years (he has four seasons left on a six-year, $130 million contract) that they can’t afford Cueto to not pitch up to expectation. He needs to at least show flashes of his old self or the Giants’ front office can start to worry. Cueto’s advantage lies in the fact that with the Giants out of contention, less pressure remains on his shoulders. He can focus on repairing his game without the added stress of a team pushing toward September.
It’s important to note that as much as Cueto probably wants to return to old form, he still gets paid no matter the outcome of his performances. Should Cueto remain inconsistent, the party that truly suffers is the Giants.
The Giants want Cueto for 2018, provided he is the dominant second starter he was in 2016. They’ve made it clear that they won’t use the rest of 2017 as a rebuild and bringing back that Bum-Cueto combo would set the first domino of dominance back to the Giants. And while there’s no use predicting possible trades in an unpredictable market, it looks like San Francisco may not be keen on trading him. Even if they are, the odds of a team sending the Giants a slew of prospects for Cueto given his opt-out clause at the end of the year aren’t likely. But if Cueto is unable to put the pieces back together and decides to stay with San Francisco, the Giants are looking straight down a tunnel they’ve been down multiple times, and it hasn’t been good.
Should Cueto decide to opt back in and continue to showcase subpar performances over the next four seasons, the Giants will have another Matt Cain or Barry Zito on their hands — a classic case of overpaying a player on the downslope of his career. If the Giants want to establish themselves as competitors again, they need to break old habits. They can’t be the team that’s constantly overpaying players that are past their prime. Yet if Cueto can’t perform, that exact scenario will arise, again.
Bottom line: Cueto’s inconsistent season so far isn’t something to fret about. Blame it on the overall weirdness of a season where nobody is as good as they should be. But if he shows similar patterns in the second half, cue the nail biting. Now is where big decisions will be made, and the Giants have to wonder if keeping Cueto will do more damage than good. If he does become a liability, the Giants will be stuck paying big bucks for a pitcher who may have already passed the “big bucks” stage of his career. Best case scenario for all involved is Cueto bouncing back to old form and quick-pitching his way right back into the circle of dominance he helped establish. That would give Cueto the option to opt out at the end of the year, and pursue an even bigger deal on the free agent market. That’s a problem the Giants should want to have.
But that will require evidence that Cueto is capable of returning to form. Only time can tell on that one.
