What: The 120th edition of The Big Game
Where: Stanford Stadium
When: Saturday, 5 p.m.
How to listen: KGO 810 and KSFO 560
What to watch for: The Cardinal enter Saturday’s Big Game as 14.5 point favorites, and earlier in the week, Stanford’s advantage in Las Vegas held steady at -16. However, lines often move late in rivalry games, and though David Shaw’s squad is still two touchdown favorites, Cal has become a trendy upset pick in the college football universe thanks in large part to the progress Bears’ head coach Justin Wilcox has made during his first year with the program.
The Bears enter Saturday’s contest at 5-5, one win shy of a bowl bid with a matchup with UCLA still lurking next week. Stanford comes in at 7-3, riding high following an upset win over Washington after back-to-back disappointing efforts against Washington State and Oregon State. While the Cardinal have slightly under-performed relative to expectations, Cal has exceeded preseason forecasts even if a handful of the Bears losses have come in lopsided affairs.
While it’s clear Stanford holds an edge from a talent standpoint, there’s a level of intrigue to this year’s Big Game that’s been missing of late due to Cal’s program-wide struggles. The Bears’ rise and Stanford’s status as the leading contenders to win the Pac-12 North have guaranteed a national audience will tune in for the Bay Area’s college football rivalry game, and if you plan on checking in on Saturday evening’s showdown, here are a few keys to keep your eyes on.
1. Can Cal contain Stanford star Bryce Love?
If you’re new to college football, allow us to introduce you to Heisman trophy contender Bryce Love, the Stanford running back who has somehow picked up where Carolina Panthers’ rookie Christian McCaffrey left off. McCaffrey was viewed as an irreplaceable offensive centerpiece, but Love has become a dominant offensive force thanks to his 9.0 yards per carry average and his next-level burst that makes him a menace in the open field.
Over the last decade, Cal has rarely pieced together a strong enough defense to contain star tailbacks, and on paper, Love appears poised for a big day. However, Wilcox has proven he can scheme against one-trick ponies (see Cal’s 37-3 win over pass-happy Washington State), and if the Bears are able to take away the run, Stanford doesn’t have a competent passing attack to counter a defense that neutralizes Love.
Cal ranks 70th nationally in rushing defense, but if the Bears sell out in an attempt to force the Cardinal to beat them through the air, it’s entirely possible Wilcox could coach the Bears in position to pull off an upset.
2. Which quarterback rises to the occasion?
Cal’s Ross Bowers against Stanford’s K.J. Costello doesn’t sound like an eye-popping matchup for schools that have produced Jared Goff and Andrew Luck within the past decade, but quarterback play will again be a focal point of this year’s Big Game because neither player has started a rivalry game before.
The Bears have far more confidence in their signal-caller than Shaw has shown in Costello this season, but Bowers also has the tougher task of matching up against a Stanford defense playing in front of a home crowd. Bowers has only played four road games thus far, and while his 10:3 touchdown to interception ratio in those games should give Bears’ fans hope, he’s generally been less efficient and thrown incompletions at a higher rate away from Memorial Stadium.
Costello, meanwhile, has a 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio for the season, as the Cardinal haven’t asked the freshman to take over games through the air. The Bears will surely do their best to force Costello to beat them with his arm, and if he can find success early in the short-to-intermediate passing game, Stanford should have an opportunity to find offensive balance and take an early lead.
3. Did Cal make the most of its bye week?
While Stanford was dueling in a hard fought battle against Washington last week, Cal was biding its time in Berkeley, healing up and preparing for Wilcox’s first rivalry game as a head coach.
Extra rest is incredibly important in football, but especially at the college level where preparation can often times close the existing talent gap that will manifest itself on the field. The Bears are at a disadvantage due to the athletic edge the Cardinal possess, but Wilcox can make up for that by devising a game plan that takes away Stanford’s strengths and exposes the Cardinal’s weaknesses. Unfortunately for Cal, the Bears are up against one of the Pac-12’s most respected coaches in Shaw, a man who is already 7-0 in Big Game contests and eager to position the Cardinal to take home another division title.
If Cal is able to upend Stanford on its home turf, the Bears will surely credit the off week as a primary reason they were able to overcome their rivals.
