SANTA CLARA — Once in a blue moon, you can find Pete Carroll’s team in a vulnerable spot.
Yes, the Seahawks usually roll out a dominant defense, but Week 3 is one of those rare occasions where the scheduling gods might’ve inadvertently blessed Chip Kelly’s 49ers.
Seattle is battling the injury bug and offensive line issues and struggling to score touchdowns. Russell Wilson’s playing through an ankle sprain that limited his mobility in last week’s 9-3 loss to the Rams. Doug Baldwin underwent an MRI on his knee a few days ago, but assured the media he’s fine. Young playmakers Thomas Rawls (leg) and Tyler Lockett (knee) are both expected to be on the injury report. In just two games, this is an offense that has taken its licks.
And in terms of their dire offensive line situation, the Seahawks have found themselves a victim of their own success. Having to pay Wilson, Baldwin, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Bobby Wagner, Earl Thomas and Jimmy Graham has left the Seahawks strapped for cash. Finances caused a reality check and the roster had to take the hit.
No team in the NFL has less money invested in the offensive line than Seattle. All five starters are playing different positions than they played a year ago. As PFF details, it’s been a chaotic mess up front to start the season, especially with the tandem nature of Seattle’s zone blocking.
All of these factors are negatively impacting Wilson’s play. Yards per play is how most NFL teams measure themselves and the Seahawks are 29th (4.7) and 31st in scoring (7.5 ppg). Yes, the Seahawks will be playing angry at CenturyLink and are substantial 10-point favorites. Yes, they want to avoid the 2-4 hole they dug themselves in back in 2015.
Can Seattle’s talent mask the lack of cohesion from their offensive line? In the first two weeks, that answer has been no. One last-second win against the Dolphins and a loss to the Rams can be completely pinned on the offense. The blockers up front have been a weakness, one that can be exposed repeatedly.
“They have guys playing together for the first time,” Trent Dilfer said on KNBR 680. “I mean, every year it’s just a different offensive line. And they haven’t learned how to play together yet.”
Okay, sure. That’s just one side of the football. Seattle’s defense is still regarded as the best unit in the NFC, having led the NFL in yards allowed in four straight seasons. Kelly called their secondary the best in the league on Wednesday and he’s going to have a hell of a challenge drawing up plays to get Quinton Patton and Jeremy Kerley open — let alone dealing with Blaine Gabbert’s accuracy issues (54.9 completion percentage).
But that’s the thing here: Seattle’s offense has started the season so poorly that San Francisco can remain hopeful for a low-scoring, four-quarter slugfest. The 49ers’ defense is being presented an opportunity to make a statement this week.
Spearheaded by DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead, knifing through Seattle’s offensive line without exotic blitzing should be the expectation on Sunday. Disruption from the defensive line will be necessary for this game to be close. And maybe Jim O’Neil should tell his secondary to take less chances than they did against the Panthers. The Seahawks will be looking to strike deep for big passing plays, masking their deficiencies on the offensive line.
“They have significant offensive line changes on an annual basis, and normally when you say that about a team, you would say they are not a contender,” NFL Films executive producer Greg Cosell said on KNBR 680. “They are not really a consistent offense.”
The 49ers’ chances of beating the Seahawks are still minuscule. But this isn’t like last week’s showdown. The Panthers had 10 days to prepare for Kelly and were playing at home for the first time after a Super Bowl loss. The 49ers caught Cam Newton at the worst time possible.
Playing Seattle on the road is never fun. Not for the 49ers, not even for the Patriots. The Seahawks are going to eventually figure out their problems on offense. They are too talented not to.
So wouldn’t you rather play them in September when they are still sorting themselves out, as opposed to November when things are clicking on all cylinders? Even though an upset is highly unlikely, Kelly should be harping on this reason for hope all week.
