Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
At long last, it’s here. The 49ers’ bet on the future of their franchise will be announced on Thursday night, and it will either bring fury or elation or both to a fanbase that has watched an inconsistent and oft-injured stable of Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard and Brian Hoyer for the last four years.
It’s clearly time for a change, and San Francisco showed little hesitation in their willingness to move up for that change. The question, now, is if Kyle Shanahan will remain stubborn and outdated in his quarterback preferences.
Here is the 49ers’ current pick haul:
Round 1, Pick 3
Round 2, Pick 43
Round 3, Pick 102
Round 4, Pick 117
Round 5, Pick 155
Round 5, Pick 172
Round 5, Pick 180
Round 6, Pick 194
Round 7, Pick 230
First up, quarterback…
Round 1, Pick 3: Mac Jones
Yes, I think Kyle is that stubborn. Generally, I try not to read too much into press conferences before the draft, but so too did NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, until he found in his research that in about “10-to-12” of these 32 yearly pre-draft pressers, there is legitimately valuable information. This was one of those cases.
Jeremiah believed, just like myself and most of the Bay Area media who participated on the call, that Shanahan pointed strongly and defensively in the direction of Mac Jones.
"I used to laugh at those press conferences."
–@nflnetwork @MoveTheSticks told us what he thought of Kyle Shanahan performance yesterday and who it points to the #49ers taking 3rd overall:#NFL #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/4fy3r3mUXO
— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) April 27, 2021
Shanahan made it clear that he wants Jimmy Garoppolo gone, hilariously and disturbingly refusing to guarantee he’d be alive by this Sunday.
CBS’ Jason La Canfora has reported that the 49ers will try and trade him before or during the draft, though there aren’t many suitors. With NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport saying Justin Fields is out of the conversation, that would point strongly to Jones, given that Trey Lance is viewed, understandably, as someone who will have a steeper learning curve to the NFL, given his limited pass attempts against weaker competition.
There were plenty of other signs, too, like Shanahan saying fans should be happy with whom they pick at three if they would have been happy with him at 12 (that logic doesn’t track at all, because there are three quarterbacks available at three and you give up nothing at 12) when asked about easing fan anxiety over Jones.
When asked about the trend of athletically gifted, mobile quarterbacks (not running quarterbacks, but with the capacity to run and with elite arm talent), Shanahan went on a bizarre tangent in which he immediately mentioned Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, two relics of the NFL’s past, and disagreed that the league is trending towards mobile quarterbacks.
He phrased it as “the league is always evolving,” and that you want someone who can be a combination of Brees and Lamar Jackson. He said 30 years ago or 30 years into the future, you’d always draft a Brees, Rivers, Jackson or Patrick Mahomes.
This is not ruling out Lance, and it’s not even ruling out Fields. But we’re talking about a man who ignored Deshaun Watson and Mahomes because he had a *chance* to sign Kirk Cousins, then didn’t. Shanahan is nitpicky, and if he loves Jones, that’s who he’ll take.
Now, this is not to say Jones is a bad prospect. He’s not. He displays great footwork, anticipation and touch, especially on intermediate throws. He reads the field well and has a good feel of a closing pocket, which allows him to maneuver into throwing lanes, though he was so well-protected at Alabama, that was rare.
But to draft him at a cost of three first-rounders and a third-rounder, when there are two potentially generational talents on the board in Fields and Lance, who, by the way, don’t have character concerns like Jones, who has a DUI; that’s not just irresponsible. It’s a career-defining move that I expect will haunt Shanahan for the rest of his time as an NFL coach.
And good luck selling Jones as an upgrade over Garoppolo, who is well-liked in the locker room. Jones sure as hell isn’t going to beat him out with any crazy physical traits, so he better be the most accurate passer anyone’s ever seen. Because if you make this move, and he’s only impressing above Garoppolo in the QB room, or behind closed doors with Shanahan, well, that’s a damn good way to erode trust in the locker room.
I hope Shanahan makes me eat my words and either drafts someone else, or Jones sets the world alight. At worst, Jones will probably be serviceable. But it’s a damning decision to bet the mortgage on “just fine,” when the other two options are mold-shattering.
Note: Garoppolo trade
So, I wrote up a whole section about how the 49ers could trade Garoppolo to Denver, one of the few viable, logical suitors. And then Denver traded a sixth-round pick for Teddy Bridgewater. So… they’re out.
At this point, the potential suitors are slim:
- New England: Still the prime, if only candidate. They only have about $3.5 million committed to Cam Newton. But they’re also in a prime position to get a rookie quarterback, either by standing pat or in a trade up. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, they are the only candidate for Garoppolo.
That it does. As @AdamSchefter said this morning on @WEEI the Patriots are the only trade partners for Jimmy G https://t.co/TtU4eVn3lf
— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) April 28, 2021
- Chicago: Maybe, but they have about $9 million tied up in Dalton/Foles with zero current cap space. They could trade up for a rookie, too.
- Washington: Have about $6 million guaranteed to Ryan Fitzpatrick and $1.5 million to Taylor Heinicke. You can’t rule them out, but again, you’d think they’d prefer a rookie if possible. But, as you look up, it’s clear that there’s only going to be two of the top five quarterbacks available for one of the Patriots, Bears and Washington, and probably only one with the move the Panthers just made.
- Miami: Getting pretty stretch-ey here because Miami has about $12.5 million committed to Tua and Jacoby Brissett. But hey, maybe Brian Flores wants to add another former Patriots quarterback to the room, and if Garoppolo takes a pay decrease, maybe it’s not too far-fetched.
- Philadelphia: It’s possible if Garoppolo takes a significant pay cut, but they already used most avenues to clear space, and have $7 million committed to Hurts and… Flacco (in equal measure)
- Houston: This is the Deshaun Watson gets suspended and Garoppolo plays for cheap scenario with former Patriots front office member and current Houston general manager Nick Caserio reuniting with his former New England quarterback.
It seems clear the 49ers have waited too long, and while Garoppolo should be worth more than Bridgewater, if the Patriots draft a quarterback, he might not be worth anything. But this is a mock draft, and I think the 49ers are crafty enough to get something done. So…
Trade with Patriots
Patriots receive: Round 2, Pick 43, Jimmy Garoppolo
49ers receive: Round 2, Pick 46, Round 3, Pick 96
The Patriots know the market is depressed for Garoppolo, but the 49ers have to save some face in a trade (or not, who knows). But there’s goodwill between these teams, and a late third for your starting quarterback is not an exceedingly high price, especially when Garoppolo is going to have to take a pay cut and Belichick’s affection for Garoppolo is well-known.
This assumes Carolina takes Justin Fields and the Patriots either aren’t interested in Trey Lance, Denver is still in play for a quarterback, or Washington/Chicago jumps the Patriots to get the last QB on the board. Maybe that’s unrealistic, who knows. But the slight trade down in the second operates as a sweetener, and closes that second-to-third-round gap for the 49ers.
Round 2, Pick 46: Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford
(Highly recommend skipping to 6:12)
In the previous mock, I had the 49ers trading down with the Raiders to move into the third round. I still see this as a prime trade down spot, but if you get the Garoppolo trade done beforehand, it’s not as necessary. The last mock had Kentucky corner Kelvin Joseph here, and I still think he’s a fantastic fit in this spot.
I really see this range for corners as a battle between three; Joseph, Eric Stokes from Georgia, and Adebo. This is a bit higher than many project Adebo to go (generally an early third-round projection), but the 49ers and NFL front offices don’t care about that.
Adebo, along with Joseph and Stokes, has absurd athletic upside, but Adebo has by far the better 3-cone drill which tends to project short-area quickness and fluid movement. That doesn’t quite line up with the film, though, where Joseph and Stokes look more fluid in flipping their hips. The explanation for that would be that Joseph and Stokes have better anticipation and recognition, so they position their bodies better and stay tighter than Adebo did.
Measurables: 6’1, 198 pounds, 4.45-second 40-yard dash (82nd percentile), 6.69-second 3-cone drill (94.7th percentile)
The demarcation here is that these negatives were from Adebo’s 2019 season after an outstanding 2018 campaign; he didn’t play in 2020. So it’s to be expected that Joseph and Stokes will have looked better on tape with an extra year than Adebo did, and he has the most ideal size and physical testing for the position. What does show up on tape is how quickly he triggers downhill, and even when he wasn’t in tremendous position, he used his length and timing to disrupt catch windows.
Trade with Miami
Dolphins receive: Round 3, Pick 96, Round 4, Pick 117
49ers receive: Round 3, Pick 81, Round 6, 2022
Miami has a wealth of picks in the first three rounds, but has a gap from Pick 81 to Pick 156. Just like I suspect the 49ers will want to close their own gap, this presumes Miami wants to do the same.
Round 3, Pick 81: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
(Timestamped. Watch both plays, but particularly the second – the defensive back falls, but it’s caused by the move.)
I can’t stop mocking him to the 49ers because I simply think he’s the best replacement for Kendrick Bourne. And I’m not saying San Francisco needs to look for a 1-to-1 Bourne replacement, and St. Brown definitely isn’t 1-to-1. But Bourne’s major value was third-down first downs from the slot. He developed into an impressive route runner, and almost always set himself up to catch the ball in a spot where he’d get just enough yards for the first.
St. Brown is one of the more polished route runners in this class, but his athletic upside far exceeds Bourne’s. He comes from a prodigious athletic family with two other football brothers, and a father, in John Brown, who is a former Mr. Universe. He started teaching his sons how to lift weights (using PVC piping) when they were toddlers.
What shows up on tape is that he’s aggressive in attacking the catch point, and uses his physical strength and reach to make himself available in tight windows. His pure speed might not be elite, but you’re drafting him as a slot wide receiver, where that’s not really a concern. He tested extremely well in the vertical, broad and in 3-cone drills, which demonstrate the crucial short-area quickness and explosion off the line needed to succeed in the slot.
One underrated aspect of Bourne’s game, too, is his blocking. He was graded as the best pass blocking receiver in the NFL by PFF, and St. Brown displays commitment as a blocker. For a coach in Kyle Shanahan who demands much out of his receivers and prioritizes blocking, that won’t likely go unnoticed.
There are myriad receiving options that the 49ers can target in every single round, which is why I could see this spot being used for an edge, tight end or guard, too, but with good size at 5’11 5/8″, 198 pounds, route-running polish and athletic upside, I think St. Brown’s learning curve will be minimal, which is substantial at a position where San Francisco needs reliability.
Round 3, Pick 102: Kendrick Green, G/C, Illinois
The 49ers love squatty, interior offensive linemen. Green’s main concern is his size, at 6’1 7/8″, 305 pounds, but he is an athletic freak who moves extremely well. I would also make the argument that the 49ers should draft Creed Humphrey, the center from Oklahoma at 46, and save a corner for the previous pick or this selection.
What makes Green a great selection here is that he can play as an athletic, pulling guard who can get to the second level in a way the 49ers missed last season, and depend on for their explosive runs. Long term, he projects as a center, and would be the natural successor to Alex Mack. He’s very intelligent about angles and positions his body well.
The negatives, again, are his size, and the potential to be bullied by dominant interior players (*coughs in Aaron Donald*). A lot of that, though, can be corrected with better hand placement.
When you look at his two closest physical comparisons in Brian Waters (a two-time All-Pro and six-time Pro Bowler) and Vince Manuwai (started 105 games for the Jaguars), there’s reason to believe he’s got enough size for the position. The athletic upside makes him a perfect zone fit, and he stayed healthy in college starting all 33 games over three years.
Trade with New Orleans
Saints receive: Round 5, Pick 155, Round 6, Pick 194
49ers receive: Round 4, Pick 133
New Orleans has no picks from 133 until 218. That’s a long wait, and San Francisco has three fifth-rounders to work with. I’m using the same logic as with most of these moves; teams wanting to close the gap between rounds and utilizing extra picks to take advantage of that on the other side.
Round 4, Pick 133: Elerson Smith, EDGE, Northern Iowa
Surprise, surprise. Another hyper-athletic prospect.
Smith didn’t play this past season except for the Senior Bowl, where he ran riot against some very solid tackle and guard prospects in this year’s draft. He’s flexible, bendy and despite his lanky frame, and converts enough speed to power to take blockers off guard and convert a second move for the finish.
He’s extremely raw, but this is a very suspect defensive end class, and his upside is as high as anyone on the board at any point in the draft. He’ll likely need to add weight, but his lightness hasn’t appeared to cost him any strength, and his measurables are nonsensically enticing.
Round 5, Pick 172: Marco Wilson, CB, Florida
If you’re getting tired of all these hyper-athlete picks, well, read another mock draft. Especially the later a draft goes, the more teams should prioritize taking swings on absurd athletes. Wilson is rated as the most athletic corner prospect in this year’s class.
There are some inconsistencies in his footwork; everything vertical is stellar, but it may be a byproduct of selling out on vertical stems, leaving him vulnerable to in-cutting routes. Maybe he’s too handsy as plays are developing, but that can be corrected and at least ensures that he’s in range to make a play on the ball.
His major concern is not finishing plays; sometimes he’ll assess that the play is over or know he has help over the top and stop running. If there are other concerns related to that which come up in pre-draft interviews, then pass on him. There could be worries about immaturity, as he cost Florida a game against LSU by… throwing an opponent’s shoe in the fourth quarter after making a stop, which set up a late field goal.
But in terms of sheer talent, he legitimately has as high an upside as any corner in this draft. He moves fluidly, gets into the chest of receivers and carries deeper patterns excellently; he’s usually instep with receivers and has the quickness to make a play on the ball. At this stage in the draft, you’re swinging on immense upside.
Round 5, Pick 181: Briley Moore, TE, Kansas State
After the first group of tight ends, it is brutal out there. Moore is in that second class, and just like with Wilson, you’re swinging on a freak athlete who you hope can translate that into production on the field.
It’s tough to evaluate his tape given that Kansas State was such a brutal offense and had serious trouble competing in the Big-12 due to poor coaching, lack of discipline and a significant talent gap. But Moore stood out.
The major concern for him is that he’s got short T-Rex arms which limit him as a blocker and his range as a receiving target, but he’s extremely athletic and fights through contact. Perhaps he looks for contact too much, but he has legitimate run after catch potential and the athletic foundation to project as a receiving target.
Round 7, Pick 230: Kene Nwangwu, RB, Iowa State
This is a pure, hit-the-hole-hard, raw speed, upside play. The reason you probably haven’t heard of him is because he’s been stuck behind two of the best running backs in college football over the past two seasons. He was behind David Montgomery, the now-Chicago Bears stud, in 2018, and then Breece Young, an All-American who ran for 1,572 yards and 21 TDs last year.
So, yeah, I’m willing to cut the guy a little bit of slack for not ever being a starter in his four years, and NFL teams will too. In normal years, he’d go undrafted, but with a limited pool of players declaring for the draft this season, he’s likely to be drafted.
Why would you draft a guy who’s never been a starter? Because he’s actually got impressive vision and has a little Mostert to him in the way he explodes through the hole. He’s also the most athletic running back, on paper, in this draft.
Draft recap:
Round 1, Pick 3: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Trade with Patriots: Jimmy Garoppolo, Round 2, Pick 43 for Round 2, Pick 46, Round 3, Pick 96
Round 2, Pick 46 (from Patriots): Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford
Trade with Dolphins: Round 3, Pick 96, Round 4, Pick 117 for Round 3, Pick 81, Round 6, 2022
Round 3, Pick 81: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
Round 3, Pick 102: Kendrick Green, IOL, Illinois
Trade with Saints: Round 5, Pick 155, Round 6, Pick 194 for Round 4, Pick 133
Round 4, Pick 133: Elerson Smith, EDGE, Northern Iowa
Round 5, Pick 172: Marco Wilson, CB, Florida
Round 5, Pick 181: Briley Moore, TE, Kansas State
Round 7, Pick 230: Kene Nwangwu, RB, Iowa State
