The Giants haven’t put top dollar into their team since Farhan Zaidi inherited a bloated payroll in 2019, but that could all change this winter.
With Linden, CA native Aaron Judge hitting the open market, as well as shortstops Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson, the Giants could be major players. Coming off an 81-81 season and with a fanbase starving for star power, SF appears poised to cut some checks.
For Judge specifically, the Giants are favorites in Vegas to land the American League home run champ if he leaves the Bronx. One Yankees beat reporter’s sources predict Judge, 30, will come home.
Judge’s next contract will likely be worth north of $300 million — the likes of which the Giants have never secured.
President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has said that if the front office decides to pursue players that push San Francisco’s payroll up, he expects support from ownership.
The offseason officially begins five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Zaidi and the Giants’ budget will get tested then.
Some important figures to note: the Giants spent $162 million on their 2022 payroll, per Fangraphs — 13th in MLB. The competitive balance tax threshold for 2023 is set at $233 million.
Here’s what the Giants’ 023 roster might look like before any big splashes.
Infielders
C Joey Bart – $800K (pre-arb)
SS Brandon Crawford – $16 million
2B/SS Thairo Estrada – $2.4 million (arbitration estimate)
1B/3B J.D. Davis – $3.8 million (arb)
UTIL Wilmer Flores – $6.5 million
UTIL David Villar – $700K (pre-arb)
3B/DH Evan Longoria – $13 million
This group assumes Brandon Belt, who is a free agent, won’t return and that Villar did enough in his rookie audition to earn an Opening Day roster spot. He’s on a cheap contract anyway, so for the purposes of this exercise, his inclusion isn’t particularly significant.
It also assumes the Giants will cut ties with Tommy La Stella, but they will almost certainly have to eat most if not all of his $11.5 million salary. Longoria also may return on a negotiated salary, but he’s locked in for at least his $5 million buyout. The $13 million represents a conservative placeholder.
Projected 2023 commitment to infielders, including The Full La Stella: $54.7 million
Outfielders
OF Mike Yastrzemski – $5.7 million (arb)
OF Austin Slater – $2.7 million (arb)
OF Luis González – $700K (pre-arb)
The Giants may look to retain LaMonte Wade Jr. in his first year of arbitration — despite his down 2022 season — unless they’re confident in a major Heliot Ramos bounceback or believe in J.D. Davis’ ability to play a corner. If not, Wade is a fair-priced gamble to provide left-handed hitting depth and some versatility.
Joc Pederson is a free agent, and by late September he wasn’t thrilled with the club’s direction.
Yastrzemski’s arbitration raise carries sticker shock, but it’s possible the Giants work to sign him to an extension for more longer-term security but a lower average annual value.
González is by no means a lock, but his hot first half is probably enough for SF to take another low-risk flier on him.
But this is where “the guy who hits in the Bronx” would come in.
Projected 2023 commitment to outfielders: $9.1 million
Starting Pitchers
RHP Logan Webb – $4.8 million (arb)
RHP Anthony DeSclafani – $12 million
RHP Alex Cobb – $9 million
LHP Alex Wood – $12.5 million
The rotation goes four deep as currently constructed. There are a lot of different ways the front office might approach it. The Giants could make a push to re-sign Carlos Rodón — who is expected to opt out of his 2023 player option — but that would require bucking their precedent of avoiding long-term contracts to starters.
SF could pursue one-year or other short-term deals for proven veterans, as the current blueprint they’ve followed under Farhan Zaidi suggests.
They could mix both strategies and add two more arms, potentially pushing Wood to the bullpen.
Top pitching prospect Kyle Harrison will also factor into the rotation at some point of the 2023 season, if not on Opening Day.
Projected 2023 commitment to starters: $38.3 million
Relief Pitchers
RHP Camilo Doval – $800K (pre-arb)
RHP Jakob Junis – $3.3 million
RHP John Brebbia – $1.9 million (arb)
LHP Jarlin García – $2.4 million (arb)
RHP Tyler Rogers – $1.8 million (arb)
The Giants’ bullpen was a major weak point on the 2022 roster, and SF will likely let most of it go. Cole Waites will likely factor into the pen again as a 40-man guy. So could Sean Hjelle, Sam Long, Yunior Marte or Alex Young.
Lefties Scott Alexander and Thomas Szapucki showed flashes in September; Alexander is arbitration eligible and Szapucki is pre-arbitration. Veteran Shelby Miller was untouchable until he wasn’t.
That core group of five is a strong one to build from, though. Especially with Junis, who had a solid year as a starter but is viewed internally as more of a hybrid option. The Giants have been publicly confident in Rogers, whose batted ball luck evened out toward the end of the season.
Projected 2023 commitment to relievers: $10.2 million
Total Projected 2023 payroll commitment: $112.3 million
It’s important to note that this projection is likely on the conservative side*. The margin for error depends on how the front office proceeds with Longoria, La Stella, and some arbitration decisions.
*Fangraphs estimates a $132 million payroll; Spotrac projects $104.5 million
As it stands, the above projection factors in 19 players for the 26-man roster (plus La Stella’s $11.5 million).
That doesn’t necessarily mean the Giants will bring in seven new players via free agency or trades, but it does highlight how much freedom the front office has to make changes.
Overall, though, the Giants have roughly $100 million on the bill before free agency begins. If they want to really get crazy, that leaves them roughly $100 million more to play with.
But immediate payroll projections don’t tell the full story if the context in question is pursuing a player like Judge. Future commitments matter just as much, if not more, for a team considering taking a home run swing.
That’s where the Giants are in really good shape. After 2023, the only guaranteed contracts are DeSclafani and Flores. Core players under team control like Logan Webb and Joey Bart aren’t going anywhere, but they likely won’t be costing a fortune yet.
Beyond 2024, the Giants have just Flores on the books.
Judge, who turned down a seven-year, $213.5 million extension last winter, is going to command one of the most lucrative contracts in baseball history.
The Giants should have the capital to dish it out.
