There will be change for the Golden State Warriors after this season. The question is how much.
The reigning champs are still fighting to avoid the play-in tournament, and will seek to win a championship without home court advantage for the first time in the last decade.
But it’s hard not to think about what’s to come and how their performance in the postseason will affect the future.
The Athletic’s Marcus Thompson joined KNBR on Monday and discussed how things could play out this summer.
The first item of business, of course, is Draymond Green. Green has a one-year, $27.59 million player option available this offseason and made it clear he was disappointed by the fact that the team declined to extend him.
Thompson believes his play in the coming weeks will determine where he ends up.
“I do think his ability to get a big contract somewhere else is gonna help make that decision for them,” Thompson said. “So if he plays really well and they look great in the playoffs, especially if they beat Sacramento — if you look at New Orleans or Portland, can you imagine what they would give up for somebody like Draymond, if he goes and shows he could still do it?
“That impacts his decision, right? Or if they flame out in the first round, and it’s clear, like, this little era is over, maybe he opts for something else. To me, that’s the first question.”
The second question is about Joe Lacob.
The Warriors majority shareholder has actively invested in the team since taking over in 2010, and it’s paid dues. But as the Warriors face a burdensome repeater tax that is only set to increase in the range of hundreds millions, he faces a question of whether it’s worth it.
Thompson thinks it all depends on how the Warriors perform:
Then the other question is like, Joe [Lacob] is not paying a record salary for a team that can’t get out of the first round or just looks wholly disappointing.
I do think if they make the Finals, they lose in a in a tough series, it convinces them to say, ‘Hey, we still got it in us, we just need a little bit more help. You gave us like eight 21-and-unders. If we got another Otto Porter Jr., if we had GPII in time, if Wiggs was healthy, we could win.’
If they do one of those things, if they make a run, now that’s a more viable excuse.
But then at that point, he still might not be willing to pay it and now you’re talking, do you trade Jordan Poole? Do you trade Wiggins, like how do you readjust it? I think a lot is riding on this postseason. I think a lot is riding on whether they continue to try to work these two timelines or just kind of start over.
At the same time, their performance might not matter given that they’re expected to face a more than $200 million luxury tax bill.
Given the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement, which will remove the mid-level exception for teams, like the Warriors, above a certain tax threshold, things might already be decided.
Still, Thompson thinks it all comes down to the coming games.
You look at the new CBA and how the new deal is even more punitive, they won’t be able to to use their mid-level or they won’t be in the buyout market. It’s even harder now if you spend more money, so it’s even more punitive.
It may have already been decided, like we need to cut salary and this has to happen, and now they’re playing for a chance to save that, to ward off their ending.
I feel like this is for all the marbles right here, this. Like this might be the end of the era, or they might they might actually save it. Or at least that’s the kind of drama I’m going for in my column.
Golden State (42-38) is currently a half-game up on the two Los Angeles teams (who play each other Wednesday night) with two away games remaining, at Sacramento on Friday and Portland on Sunday.
They could fall into the play-in tournament, hold on to the fifth seed for a matchup with the Phoenix Suns, or drop to the sixth seed to face Sacramento. Time will soon tell.
Listen to the full interview below. You can listen to every KNBR interview on our podcast page at knbr.com/podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.
Catch Tolbert & Copes weekdays from 2 p.m. – 6 p.m. on KNBR 104.5 / 680 and streaming live on KNBR.com.
