Several NFL teams will be watching in earnest when the San Francisco 49ers travel to take on the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night in a game chock full of playoff implications for both conferences to close out Week 16.
The 49ers (10-4) have clinched a playoff spot, but they also sit in third place in the NFC West, looking up at the Seahawks (12-3) and Rams (11-4). Seattle pulled out a 38-37 overtime win against visiting Los Angeles on Thursday night.
The Colts (8-6) find themselves in a more precarious situation in the other conference, sitting as the “last team out” of the seven-team AFC playoff picture. They are 1 1/2 games behind the Houston Texans (10-5) and 2 1/2 back of the Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) in the South.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The 49ers are a consensus 5.5-point favorite. That includes at BetRivers, where they have been backed by 74% of the spread-line money. San Francisco’s -275 moneyline has drawn 80% of the money and 84% of the total bets.
The 49ers have covered the spread in five consecutive road games in which they entered as the favorites.
The 46.0 total points line has seen the Under draw big wagers with 81% of the money wagered, although the Over has been backed by 67% of the total bets.
PROP PICKS
–49ers RB Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-205 at BetRivers): McCaffrey has scored at least one touchdown in each of San Francisco’s past six games as favorites. He also has reached the end zone at least once in seven of his past nine games overall.
–49ers TE George Kittle 50+ Receiving Yards (-266 at DraftKings): Kittle has benefitted with Brock Purdy back under center and has hauled in at least 67 receiving yards in each of his past five games. That includes 88 yards on nine targets last week. This has been the most popular player prop at the book.
INSIDE EDGE
Purdy leads the NFL with a 54% completion rate on passes thrown 20+ yards this season, according to Inside Edge’s Remarkable engine. Meanwhile, McCaffrey leads all NFL running backs with an average of 58.6 receiving yards per game.
THE NEWS
A win over the Colts would serve three purposes for the 49ers: It would clinch a playoff spot, move them into a tie for second place in the division with the Rams and keep them within one game of the West lead.
While watching the competition beat up on each other is fun, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan assured this week that earning a fifth straight win is the top priority.
He recognizes that doing it even against a 44-year-old starting quarterback — Colts substitute starter Philip Rivers — won’t be easy.
“You don’t out-athletic a really good defense,” Shanahan said. “You’ve got to be able to get rid of the ball. Some people have it and some people don’t. Whether it’s vision, whether it’s arm-throwing angles, whether it’s mental processing or whether it’s just your feel and clear mind in the pocket, when things are moving fast at an elite level, athletically, it’s really hard to get away from (athletic defenders).
“It’s about getting rid of the ball and letting someone else do it.”
Indianapolis finishes its regular season with matchups against the Jaguars (home) and Texans (road), giving the Colts — like the 49ers — an opportunity to make the playoffs. However, their margin for error is zero as they must win their three remaining games and receive some help.
The Colts managed just one touchdown last week in an 18-16 loss at Seattle as Rivers started in place of injured Daniel Jones. Even so, Indianapolis offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter believes the veteran’s impact on the attack should increase on a week-to-week basis.
“It was really fun to talk about different concepts with him and different ways to attack a defense, different ways he saw (the Seattle game) and how we could sort of build that into the weekly game plan as we got going with our weekly planning (for the 49ers),” Cooter said. “Real fun to be able to talk ball with him.”
The interconference matchup is also a rare head-to-head between two of the league’s most productive running backs — San Francisco’s McCaffrey and Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor.
Taylor leads the NFL with 1,443 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground. McCaffrey has 14 total TDs and he is just 19 yards behind Taylor (1,761-1,742) when rushing and receiving yards are combined. They rank second and third in the league in yards from scrimmage, trailing only the Atlanta Falcons’ Bijan Robinson.
Taylor carried a heavy load (25 carries, three catches) in Rivers’ first start last week. He hasn’t topped 87 rushing yards in the Colts’ past four games (all losses) after going for 102 or more five times as the team got off to an 8-2 start.
McCaffrey, meanwhile, has rushed for touchdowns in four straight games, which coincides with Purdy’s return from a toe injury. They connected through the air a total of 16 times in wins over the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns before hooking up just once in a 37-24 blowout win over the Tennessee Titans last week.
INJURY REPORT
The 49ers will not have receiver Ricky Pearsall available on Monday after he sustained knee and ankle injuries last week. Pearsall sat out practice on Thursday, as did offensive lineman Spencer Burford (knee/ankle), defensive lineman Jordan Elliott (knee) and linebacker Nick Martin (concussion).
The Colts had three players miss the Thursday practice because of injuries who have now been listed as out for Monday night: cornerback Sauce Gardner (calf), wide receiver Anthony Gould (foot) and tackle Bernhard Raimann (elbow).
PREDICTION
While Rivers immediately brought a firm grasp of reading defenses and a competitive fire to the Colts’ fledgling offense last week, his lack of arm strength was also readily apparent. With little threat of being beat vertically, San Francisco’s defense can focus its attention on Taylor. Indianapolis’ strong defense can keep the game interesting for a while, but the 49ers will steadily pull away by the second half. –49ers 27, Colts 16
