When the Western Conference Finals tip-off Sunday afternoon on Mother’s Day, the Warriors will have basically every single advantage on the San Antonio Spurs.
In eight nearly flawless postseason games, Golden State walks into Game 1 with more star players, better shooters, a polished bench and rested bodies. The Warriors are 23-1 since a loss to San Antonio on March 11. This team is still peaking.
The one advantage they won’t have is on the coaching bench. If there’s anyone capable of flipping the playoffs completely upside down by blitzing the Warriors at Oracle Arena, it’s Gregg Popovich.
And that’s no disrespect to Mike Brown or the rest of the Warriors’ assistants. Brown’s been nothing short of terrific pinch hitting. He’s completely at ease, hasn’t been afraid to flex the muscles of the Hampton 5 lineup in third quarters, or more minutes for JaVale McGee, aggressive moves Steve Kerr might not have made.
Here’s the thing: Popovich knows how to devise game plans to equalize the game for his less talented team. The Rockets had more athletes, more shooters and yet San Antonio took control of Games 4, 5 and 6 — the latter without Kawhi Leonard. Some of the main characters have changed, but the Spurs remain a basketball institution. Banking on another sweep isn’t wise. Intense, close fourth quarters are likely on the way.
The Warriors fear nobody. They play fearlessly. They talk a big game and they almost always back it up with their play.
They also remember what happened on Night 1 of the regular season, a 29 point drubbing that had Dubs fans streaming for the exits early in the fourth quarter. San Antonio out-rebounded Golden State 64-40. They caught the Warriors napping defensively. They poked holes in the lack of chemistry all the star players had yet to sharpen.
Obviously, Golden State is a completely different team nine months removed from the opening night embarrassment. Every single player has a hand-crafted role from Draymond Green down to Patrick McCaw. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant have established themselves as comfortable co-captains. Many including myself have argued this 2016-17 version is the best the Warriors have ever been. Not the 73 wins or Curry’s initial takeover. Now.
The point is that the Warriors had no idea the Spurs were going to relentlessly attack them on the glass like that to start the season. The element of surprise has always been a weapon in Popovich’s arsenal. There are very minimal weaknesses for the 68-year-old to expose, but he’ll try his best. Maybe that’s staggering some lineups. Maybe it’s using Leonard in a more creative capacity. Golden State has to be prepared for it all.
If there’s one person who fully understands all of this, it’s Brown, who was a Spurs assistant from 2000-03 (where he and Kerr actually linked up). Popovich once threatened to fire Brown if he didn’t go spend some more time with his family. The two are close friends, so much so, that Brown informally worked with Pop and the Spurs while transitioning after leaving the Cavaliers.
Staying alert to these surprise tactics will likely be a part of Brown’s game planning strategy. The Warriors can become vulnerable if a team takes away their transition game. Popovich is going to try everything in his power to muck up the game and keep the score low. The mystery is just how exactly he’ll try and accomplish it. Safety valves to work around these traps should be implemented in practice Saturday.
We all can agree that Mike D’Antoni is a pretty damn good coach, right? He elevated the Rockets this season and will probably win Coach of the Year. Popovich is now 20-6 against him in the postseason. He’s won all five series. The Warriors wouldn’t have been scared of Houston, at all. That same feeling can’t be said about the Spurs because they have Popovich. He’s now won a playoff series against 14 different Western Conference opponents. He’s the original gangster.
If Danny Green, Patty Mills, Johnathon Simmons, Dejounte Murray or Manu Ginobili throw up a big game out of nowhere — it happened a bunch against the Rockets — the Spurs have a chance. If Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge can repeat what they did in October — combining for 61 points, 21 rebounds and a 20-for-21 clip from the free-throw line — the Spurs have a chance.
And If Popovich can get them to execute his game plan and the Warriors have an off shooting night, the Spurs shocking the Warriors at Oracle Arena really won’t be all that shocking. I’ll go on the record to say they won’t win the series, but there’s a better chance of this one going six games than there is going four.
