© Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
SAN FRANCISCO – The Warriors dynasty has been eviscerated, ruined, sent to the ash heap of history; at least, some version of that is how their 2019 NBA Finals loss to the Toronto Raptors has been portrayed. In one sense, the way they went out was almost incomprehensibly brutal and lends itself to that sort of interpretation of an iconic ending to a dynasty.
To have not one but two of the NBA’s 15-best players (and one of the greatest ever) go out with season-ending, and potentially career-altering injuries a game apart is devastating on a nuclear scale.
Next year is almost certainly a reset for the Warriors. If both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson re-sign with the team, the limited cap room available with the aging Andre Iguodala along with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green on the books will take the Warriors well over the salary cap, and leave them extremely vulnerable in trying to recruit free agents.
There’s no logical reason to have Curry, Green, Iguodala and potentially Shaun Livingston (addressed below) run into the ground during a season which holds slim odds of a title run, meaning there will probably be a lot of Damian Jones, Alfonzo McKinnie, Jacob Evans and whoever else is acquired in the draft, free agency, and re-signed. It would be one in which the Warriors would likely challenge for a lower seed, and if lucky, pull a Lakers, and take their roulette spin with the NBA’s new, flattened lottery odds, or manage to get Klay Thompson back for the playoffs.
The luxury tax implications
If Kevin Durant leaves, it gives the Warriors an opportunity to use his salary on retooling the roster, but the fact that they’ll be over the cap regardless means that him leaving would have more of an effect on the team’s tax burden and exceptions rather than cap space.
Since it seems overwhelmingly likely Thompson stays, there are essentially two scenarios for the Warriors this summer, and for all of the devastation they suffered in the back end of this year’s Finals, the approach for owners Joe Lacob, Peter Guber and general manager Bob Myers will stay much the same. There are two futures ahead; one with Durant, and one without. Below, both options are explored in detail, as well as what the Warriors might look for in the draft.
The Kevin Durant scenario
Durant’s injury likely raises the chances of him re-signing. It was all but assumed Durant would leave for the New York Knicks before he ruptured his right Achilles (whether that’s accurate or not is unclear) but the injury, which we covered here, is one that has seen less than satisfactory results for many of the NBA players who have recovered from it.
There’s no chance Durant ignores that. At the very least, it has affected his perspective and he might consider the safety of a five-year, supermax contract more appealing than a four-year max deal, in which he’d be betting on himself to still be in prime or solid form at age 34 (almost 35) to receive another solid contract (no doubt, within the realm of possibility).
Durant is eligible for a five-year, $221 million supermax from the Warriors, or a four-year, $164 million max contract elsewhere. He’s getting the max regardless of his injury.
Klay Thompson is eligible for a five-year, $190 million max contract since he didn’t make an All-NBA team. From any other team, like Durant, he would be eligible for a four-year $141 max contract elsewhere. He’s staying, as his father, Mychal, said, unless the Warriors lowball him, which isn’t happening. If the Warriors sign Durant and Thompson, they’ll be on pace for a historic luxury tax penalty.
According to CBS Sports, the Warriors will be paying $167 million in salary and an additional $144 million in luxury tax penalties if they just re-sign Durant and Thompson. If the team re-signs both and gives Draymond Green a max contract next summer while re-signing Looney to a three-year, $15 million deal and only signs veteran minimum players and their draft picks, the team will pay $1.6 billion in luxury taxes over the next four years.
If Durant leaves, but Thompson and Green receive maxes, the four-year total, assuming, again, only veteran minimum deals plus Looney and draft picks, would cost the team $629 million in luxury tax penalties, ultimately a $1 billion difference if Durant stays.
The question marks in addition to all this are: Looney, Jordan Bell, Quinn Cook, Shaun Livingston, Jonas Jerebko, Damion Lee
The Warriors own Looney and Bell’s Bird rights and Cook’s early Bird rights, all of whom are restricted free agents. They could go over the cap however much they’d like to to re-sign Looney and Bell, and Cook can be offered up to the NBA average salary, which was $6,388,007 last season. They’ll likely tender a $1.8 million offer to Bell and a $1.9 million offer to Cook to make them restricted free agents.
It’s been made clear by owners Joe Lacob and Peter Guber that they’re willing to spend however much they need to keep the team competitive. What seems difficult to calculate is how that works if Durant stays. Durant and Cook are lifelong friends and it has been reported that they may be a package deal. It seems hard to fathom a scenario in which Durant stays but Cook doesn’t, and vice-versa.
Cook’s shown himself to be a capable reserve scorer and ball-handler, and it seems feasible he’ll receive something in the $3-6 million range. This complicates matters with Looney, considering how well he played this year. It’s entirely within the realm of possibility that Looney receives a multi-year, $6-plus million deal. It could well be more than that, considering the lack of quality, affordable front court players in free agency this season.
It could pose a question to the Warriors whether it’s worth the insane tax burden a deal like that would carry with Durant and Cook already on the books. The same goes for Jordan Bell, though it’s hard to see him commanding such a salary. It’s clear Looney is head and shoulders above Bell if it comes down to it, but there may be a massive gap in salary and tax implications to also consider.
It’s unclear where the Warriors stand on Jerebko and Lee, but Jerebko had a solid season, and if he’s amenable to a veteran minimum deal, he could come back. However, he’s eligible for a one-year, $3 million deal, which is likely too high a price tag.
Lee, of course, is married to Stephen Curry’s sister, Sydel, and played extraordinarily well while under a two-way contract this season. The Warriors, and Curry especially, might want to see Lee back and see what those bursts of dynamism could look like with a guaranteed contract and improved minutes without Klay Thompson.
This brings us to Shaun Livingston and the Warriors’ exceptions. The Warriors have until June 30, before free agency starts, to decide whether to waive Livingston and pay him $2 million versus the $7.692 million that would become guaranteed after that point. Livingston stated after the Finals that he’s strongly considering retirement, which could move that financial decision out of the Warriors’ hands.
If Livingston doesn’t retire, bet on the Warriors to waive him regardless. Livingston was laboring last season, and doesn’t look anywhere near the reliable second-team scorer, facilitator and ball-handler he once was.
If Durant returns, the decision on Livingston would have no impact on the team’s mid-level exception. It would stand at $5.7 million, but if Durant returns, the Warriors may be provided with a $9.2 million disabled player exception, due to Durant’s contract and Achilles injury. He would have to be evaluated by an NBA doctor who would have to deem him out definitively until June 15, but given the seriousness of the injury, that seems possible, if not likely.
Free agency with Durant
To recap, if the Warriors waive Livingston, keep Durant, Cook, Looney, Bell, and Lee, they’d have 13 roster spots filled (two coming from this year’s draft picks), and could potentially add a 16th spot if they have to deal with another two injuries (the NBA provides a hardship provision for adding a 16th spot when a team has four injuries). With a $5.7 million mid-level exception and a potential $9.2 million disabled player exception, here’s a look at who could fill those final two roster spots (there are certainly others in the mix):
Graphic by Jake Hutchinson
There may be, and certainly are some players on this list that should be switched tier-wise, and some “dream” prospects that the Warriors may have no interest in. This is to provide a generalized look at how these players are valued by their current teams and potential suitors in free agency.
Top tier
If the Warriors could somehow acquire one of Seth Curry, Reggie Bullock, Austin Rivers and a stretch front court shooter like Luke Kornet or Lance Thomas, they would have pulled off the coup of free agency. The issue is that Curry is highly valued by his current team and is probably due for a decent-sized payday. Bullock is a 3-and-D wing player who’s likely to see a lot of interest. Much of this goes for the rest of the players on this list.
If the Warriors had the full $9.2 million mid-level exception available to them, they could target one of these players and pair them with others on the good tier list. But in this scenario, the Warriors only have the $5.7 million mid-level exception, which can run for up to three years with 5 percent increases per year, and a potential $9.2 million disabled player exception, only good for one-year deals.
It’s feasible that they could use that $9.2 million on someone like Bullock or Curry, but they may prefer a longer term deal, and are likely due for more than the $5.7 taxpaying mid-level exception affords. That disabled player exception could be used on someone like Brook Lopez, however, who’s probably due for a sizable payday after an outstanding season in which he massively improved his 3-point shooting with the Bucks.
Rodney Hood could become a sort of one-year mercenary option in this scenario, taking the disabled player exception, along with a floor-spacing forward like Luke Kornet, Semi Ojeleye or Mike Scott, with the Warriors holding onto the 15th roster spot like they did this year for a two-way player they might want to convert to a guaranteed deal later in the season.
Good tier
The good tier players are generally solid, reasonable targets. Austin Rivers is a player whose name has been tossed around, but it’s hard to project, given his solid performances last year, whether the full taxpaying mid-level exception at $5.7 million would be enough to acquire him. He’s probably the one player on this list that might be out of that price range.
There are plenty of other playmakers and floor spacers in that category, however, like Trey Burke, Troy Daniels, and Danuel House Jr. – who the Warriors cut for Alfonzo McKinnie this season, before he excelled with the Rockets – who can provide scoring and shooting either off the bench or in a starting role. The Warriors are going to have to try and find as much value as they can if this scenario plays out next season, and those type of spark plug scorers will be vital if Durant re-signs.
Backup options
These backup options would likely come cheap, at or around the veteran minimum, and provide the Warriors with experienced bodies to space the floor, albeit with more wear and tear than the team might prefer, considering the minutes needed without Thompson and Durant. Most of these guys have a decent shooting touch and veteran experience. They’re not terrible options by any means, but their mileage is a concern.
The no Kevin Durant scenario
In many ways, this might actually be preferable for the Warriors, although the team would never admit that. As mentioned above, if Durant leaves, the Warriors may save roughly $1 billion in luxury tax penalties, and more if Quinn Cook leaves with him. What this means for the Warriors is two things; their luxury tax bill will be lessened, and they can open up the full mid-level exception, which could be a massive benefit.
It’s unclear if Klay Thompson’s torn ACL would open up the same $9.2 million disabled player exception that Durant’s torn Achilles might. Both injuries, again, would need to be evaluated by an NBA-sanctioned doctor to determine if they are definitively out until June 15 of 2020. That’s a difficult assessment to make, and it’s an odd process that’s open to appeals after 60 days. This means there’s a chance that the Warriors could be rejected until after many free agents have signed, but be given the exception later in the season, and use it on a player holding out, or someone who wants slightly more than the veteran minimum.
The gist of this is, the Warriors can’t rely on receiving a disabled player exception from Thompson’s injury, but if he signs and Durant doesn’t, the team can plan on having the full, non-taxpayer mid-level exception if they waive Livingston by June 30 and use the NBA’s waive-and-stretch provision on the $2 million due to him, to pay it over three years. It also means they’ll have an additional active roster spot not taken up by a player with a season-long injury.
This opens up the possibility that DeMarcus Cousins returns, but he’d have to take the full amount of the $9.2 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. It might not be in the Warriors’ best interest to give him that money considering the shooting they could secure elsewhere, and the question marks about his health and whether he can be productive over a full season. With Thompson out, the team really cannot afford to put that money on a question mark, despite how well Cousins played after his recovery. He may also look elsewhere for more money, as there’s a decent chance another team takes a chance on him in the $10-15 million range, even if only for a year.
With that in mind, here’s a look at what that would look like for the Warriors’ options in free agency, with the same targets mentioned above.
Graphic by Jake Hutchinson
Having the full mid-level exception available could be a massive boon for the Warriors. They’re not going to shy away from spending the full amount since they know it’s likely the only time they’ll get the opportunity to use it, and it could allow them to secure someone like Bullock, Rodney Hood, Alec Burks, Seth Curry, or Austin Rivers on a multi-year deal. With the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, teams can sign players for up to four years.
The Warriors could also strategically use that space to sign a player like Hood, and a lower-level, but non-minimum player like Luke Kornet, Mike Scott or C.J. Miles for front court spacing, which they are likely to lose with Jerebko and Cousins.
If Durant leaves, the Warriors get a shot to sign a player like they got in Livingston by relinquishing him. They can look at a player that can score reliably, facilitate the ball and mesh with and lead the team’s second unit on a multi-year deal (or single year, if that’s their preference), and potentially add another decent shooter, along with the veteran minimum players they’ll be evaluating regardless.
The Draft – Warriors own 28th, 58th picks
For the first time since 2012, the Warriors own both their first- and second-round draft selections, which they’ll use on June 20. Considering the injuries to Thompson and/or Durant, they’ll need as much cheap depth as possible, and rookie contracts ensure that for the long term.
It’s hard to project exactly who the Warriors will be targeting, considering the unpredictability of late-round selections, but the selection of Jacob Evans last year indicated a preference for a wing shooter and defender. That mold seems more fitting than ever, but an out-and-out forward shouldn’t be ruled out either, especially with the Warriors’ penultimate draft pick in the second round, and considering the lack of quality front court depth available in free agency.
Here are a 10 candidates for the Warriors’ first-round selection:
Ty Jerome, University of Virginia – Junior, SG
Jerome has been a popular late-round projection as a shooting guard with decent size, playmaking and shooting ability. At 6’5″, the nearly 22-year-old Jerome scored 13.6 points, notched 4.2 rebounds and had 5.5 assists per game while shooting 39.8 percent from the field. As a junior, he’s more of a finished product than some of the other players on this list, and appears to be a solid fit if he slips to the Warriors at 28.
Matisse Tybulle, University of Washington – Senior, SF
Like Jerome, Tybulle is an older prospect as a senior. He’s an extremely talented and athletic wing defender who netted an astounding 3.5 steals and 2.2 blocks per game at Washington. His shot leaves massive room for improvement, as he shot 30.5 percent from the college three, but his athleticism can help the Warriors push the pace in transition, which might be more of a common sight if they opt to push for more youth next season.
Dylan Windler, Belmont University – Senior, SG
Windler is a fantastic 3-point shooter and has already worked out for the Warriors in Oakland. He’s the exact type of role shooter the Warriors will be looking for, especially with the Thompson injury. Multiple mock drafts have Windler landing with the Warriors and some project him as the best shooter in the draft. He averaged 21.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game with incredible shooting stats. He had a 65.1 effective field goal percentage, 42.9 3-point percentage on 233 attempts and nailed 84.7 percent of his free throws.
Kevin Porter Jr., USC – Freshman, SG
Porter Jr. is one of the players who has been mocked to go anywhere from the late lottery to the very end of the first round. He’s got serious talent and star potential, but is unpolished as a freshman. It ultimately depends on what teams think his ceiling is versus his floor, and evidently, there’s no consensus. He shot 41.2 percent from 3-point range on just 68 attempts last year, with 9.5 points per game and 4 rebounds per game in limited minutes. He could be a strong upside option if he drops.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech – Sophomore, SG
Much like Porter Jr., there’s an enormous range for Alexander-Walker to go. He’s been projected as a lottery pick through the end of the first round. He’s a mercurial scorer, who, like Porter Jr., lacks a lot of polish and could use a system that simplifies the game for him and allows sets for him to figure out where he can most effectively use his creativity.
He’s good off the dribble and was hugely important for a great Virginia Tech team, scoring 16.2 points per game along with 4.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game on 37.4 percent 3-point shooting. It’s unlikely he drops to the Warriors.
Chuma Okeke, Auburn University – Sophomore, SF
Okeke was a good 3-point shooter with solid defensive instincts and rebounding ability, scoring 12 points and tallying 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 1.2 blocks per game on 38.8 percent 3-point shooting, along with a decent mark at the line, at 72.2 percent. He wouldn’t be the top prospect for the Warriors, but at 6’8″ with a 7’0″ wingspan and smart cutting, he could be useful for the Warriors.
Carsen Edwards, Purdue University – Junior, PG
Edwards is undersized at just a tick over 6 feet, but he was an absolutely prolific college scorer at 24.3 per game in his final season. His 35.5 shooting percentage from three wasn’t spectacular, but he projects to improve at the next level and has the creativity to get to the rim and beat defenders off the dribble. His size is an issue however, and he could be exploited defensively.
Cameron Johnson, UNC – Senior, SF
Johnson is probably selected before the Warriors get a chance to draft him, but he has the chance to drop. He was a solid scorer in his senior season at 16.9 points per game and an outstanding 3-point shooter. With a 6’8.5″ frame, Johnson shot 45.7 percent on his 210 3-point attempts along with 5.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. He’s an out-and-out shooter in the forward spot, and while he lacks fantastic athleticism, he’d be a plug-and-play shooter from the get-go.
Mfiondu Kabengele, Florida State – Sophomore, PF/C
This would only be an option if he drops, but the Florida State University man, and nephew of Dikembe Mutombo, was a massive threat in the post and excellent shot-blocker. At 6’10”, he’s a traditional post player, but had the ability to knock down some mid-range shots and a few from deep (35.9 percent on 65 attempts, 5 percent worse than Porter Jr. on about the same number of attempts) and move and rebound effectively.
He has the potential to be an immediate upgrade over Damian Jones, and likely Jordan Bell as well. With DeMarcus Cousins almost certain to leave and a pretty dismal class of front court options available in free agency, the Warriors might prefer to go to the draft for front court depth.
Darius Bazley, Princeton High School – SF/PF
There are a number of prospects like Bruno Fernando, Luka Samanic and Bazley, who all have high upside, but low floors. Bazley decided not to go to college, but was a five-star recruit and McDonald’s All-American in High School. He originally planned to go directly to the G-League, but ended up sitting out the season. While not a center like the Knicks’ Mitchell Robinson, he is a similar story. Robinson also skipped college and sat out a year, and was a steal for the Knicks in the early second round in 2018.
Bazley was a star in high school and has a unique scoring skillset with a 6’9″ frame and a 7’0″ wingspan. He’s a great ball-handler, driver to the hoop and can hit contested jumpers, although his shooting is inconsistent. He’s probably not the Warriors’ pick, but if they’re looking for a massive upside, albeit with massive risk, he’s an option.
Bonus: Second-round pick
This is almost impossible to project. The late first round is difficult enough, and there’s no way to guess how teams evaluate their second-round choices, which can often be used on guys with high upside and low floors, or veteran college guys who have fairly high floors but little upside. Yet, there’s always the potential to find a Draymond Green or Isaiah Thomas, who of course, was the final pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.
That said, here are three guesses at the Warriors’ 58th overall pick, two of whom went to GM Bob Myers’ alma mater at UCLA:
Alen Smailagic, Santa Cruz Warriors – PF
This might be the Warriors’ secret plan. Smailagic was under their nose all season in Santa Cruz and had a couple of massive games. At just 18 years old, he’s a 6’10” power forward prospect who had a 25-point game against the the South Bay Lakers and was solid overall. He averaged 9.1 points on 49.5 percent from the field, although he only averaged 4 rebounds per game along with 0.9 blocks and 0.9 steals per game. He has decent touch and the ability to score, and would be on a cheap contract for years to come to allow him to grow within the team like a younger, more athletic Jerebko.
Kris Wilkes, UCLA – Sophomore, SF
Wilkes is a standard 6’7″ wing who might suffer from the fact that UCLA were disappointing at 17-16.. He was a fantastic scorer in his career, and averaged 17.4 points per game in his sophomore season while shooting 33.7 percent on his 3-point attempts. Wilkes had 11 20-plus-point games in his sophomore season, with most of his efficient shooting coming in those games. He has the potential to develop into a solid bench scorer.
Moses Brown, UCLA – Freshman, C
Brown would provide front court depth and size that only Damian Jones provides currently. At 7’1″, he’s an unpolished prospect who is a bit clunky on the floor and would need work to succeed, but has potential high upside in the post offensively and averaged nearly 2 blocks per game at UCLA. He rebounded well and could be a steal if he can even play decent post defense with better hands than Jones.
Way-too-early, complete-shot-in-the-dark guess at the Warriors’ roster next season
My prediction is that Kevin Durant leaves and Quinn Cook goes with him, and the Warriors waive-and-stretch the remaining $2 million on Shaun Livingston’s deal to secure the full $9.2 million mid-level exception and choose not to use it on DeMarcus Cousins.
There is no clear indication that Cook will leave the Warriors simply because Durant does, or that Durant will leave. The Warriors love having Cook, he knows the schemes and is well-liked pretty much everywhere he goes. However, my gut feeling is that Durant goes to the Knicks (with the Nets and Clippers also in play) and Cook goes with him, especially considering Durant’s injury and the value of having a longtime friend with him for his long journey back. That said, here is my complete guess at what the Warriors’ roster looks like next season (with Lee, or more likely, Smailagic, being signed to a two-way deal):
