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After the 2019 NBA Draft, Kevin Durant’s departure, the sign-and-trade acquisition of D’Angelo Russell, trade of Andre Iguodala and a host of signings that should become official July 6, the Warriors have two roster spots available and one two-way contract available.

This is, of course, assuming second-round picks Alen Smailagic and Eric Paschall sign semi- or fully-guaranteed deals starting with a rookie minimum salary (which seems like a certainty) as opposed to two-way or G-League deals, and the team waive-and-stretches Shaun Livingston (almost a cap necessity at this point, see below) by the new July 10 guarantee date in his contract which he recently agreed to.

Yet, as explained here, even with the team rescinding its offer to Quinn Cook, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent, and letting Jordan Bell sign with the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Warriors can only afford to fill one of their final two roster spots. ESPN’s front office insider and cap expert Bobby Marks projects the team to have $215,000 in space under the apron if the team signs one minimum player (and both Smailagic and Paschall).

Pulling the Quinn Cook $1.9M QO was a necessity because of the $138.9M tax apron. Even with Shaun Livingston off the roster, GSW is restricted to signing only both second-round picks and one minimum contract. With 14 players under contract, GSW would be $215K below the apron.

— Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) July 3, 2019

This is due to the fact that the Warriors sign-and-traded for Russell and cannot, for any reason, exceed the $138.928 million apron this season. The apron is effectively a hard cap, which comes into play in the under three circumstances, including a sign-and-trade, which you can read about here.

Due to that hard cap, the Warriors are effectively required to leave their final roster spot open due to the limited space they have under the apron. The only player that the Warriors could viably move for space is Damian Jones, who will have a $2.3 million salary next season. If the Warriors traded Jones into space, they would have approximately $4.199 million in space under the apron, depending on projected salaries.

That would, however, leave the Warriors with just two real center options, with Smailagic being a stretch as the third. The Warriors also extended a qualifying offer to Damion Lee, making Lee a restricted free agent. Lee, who has two years of NBA service, could accept the offer or stay with the Warriors if he signs to a minimum $1.62 million deal for one-to-two years elsewhere and the team decides to match the offer and retain him.

If Lee signs on a minimum deal and the Warriors trade Jones and sign any player to the veteran minimum, the team would potentially have enough money to also sign a rookie free agent to a one-year minimum deal (Scenario 3).

This lack of clarity is based on what Marks has said about the team’s cap space, which is assuming the Warriors are waive-and-stretching the final $2 million on Shaun Livingston’s contract over three years, combined with data from Spotrac.com. Below are four scenarios based on the Warriors’ limited options, assuming the new core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Russell remain on the roster:

Scenario 1: Use 14th spot on minimum player, leave final spot open

Here’s what the most predictable and likely scenario would look like, with the Warriors signing a veteran minimum player to their 14th roster spot (could be Damion Lee, who would have a $1.62 million cap hit if he takes the minimum, saving the Warriors a bit under $50,000 as opposed to a traditional veteran minimum player with three-plus years of service time).

According to Marks’ projections, the Warriors will have $215,000 (the last three digits unaccounted for) of space if they waive-and-stretch Livingston and keep Jones, and sign a veteran minimum player in this scenario. Using Spotrac’s projections, the Warriors would have $126,081 in space under the apron. For that reason, and because it’s likely Marks knows the numbers of these salaries better than Spotrac, I will list a range incorporating both numbers in the following calculations.

In this scenario, the Warriors would have between $126,081-$215,000 in space under the apron, which could not be used to sign a full contract, even to an undrafted rookie. However, it would allow the team to convert a two-way contract into a guaranteed deal late in the season, which can be done up until the regular season ends in mid-April, according to CBA FAQ.

Note: Glenn Robinson III’s salary is actually $1,882,867, but since he signed a veteran minimum deal, the NBA reimburses the Warriors for the difference between his contract and the veteran minimum for players with three-plus years of service time. Effectively, the Warriors are only given the cap hit of and required to pay $1,678,854 to Robinson III.

Graphic by Jake Hutchinson; Contract data via Spotrac.com and Realgm.com, in conjunction with projections by Bobby Marks

Scenario 2: Sign two undrafted rookies with final two spots

This is not the most likely scenario, but the Warriors are on a youth movement, and it’s not completely out of the question for the team to take a flyer on an undrafted rookie. This would, however, require the team find two rookies it thinks are worth spending both of their final two roster spots on, which seems very unlikely. Still, there was some solid talent left on the board at the conclusion of the second round of the 2019 NBA Draft.

Options:

Terence Davis: Davis, from Ole Miss, who was an electric scorer and shooter who averaged 15.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game in his senior season, and was the 40th-ranked prospect by ESPN.
Jontay Porter: The brother of Michael Porter Jr., Jontay is a 6’10” center who was the 42nd-ranked prospect by ESPN, and could give the Warriors’ some more youth on the interior.
DaQuan Jeffries: As a senior at Tulsa, the 6’5″ Jeffries averaged 13 points and 5.6 rebounds while demonstrating a solid stroke from 3-point range (38 percent from three) and consistent effort and switchability on defense.
Shamorie Ponds: Ponds was a star at St. Johns, averaging 19.7 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game with a listed 6’1″ frame, but can create his own shot, which tends to go down. He signed an Exhibit 10 contract with the Rockets, however, meaning he could be given a two-way by the team.
Naz Reid: At LSU, Reid showed tremendous skill, but a lack of consistent effort as a freshman, averaging 13.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game.

In this scenario, the Warriors would have effectively no space left, and could probably not afford to guarantee a two-way player until very late in the season, if at all. They’d be left with between $8,315 and $97,234 under the apron, so they’d have to be enamored with the two rookie free agents to go this route.

Graphic by Jake Hutchinson; Contract data via Spotrac.com and Realgm.com, in conjunction with projections by Bobby Marks

Scenario 3: Trade Damian Jones into space, open two slots for minimum players and potential rookie free agent

This scenario is a bit complicated, and could go a few ways. The Warriors could trade Jones into space for something like a future second-round draft pick, or look to get a rookie or cheaper minimum contract back immediately. Regardless of what route they chose, the cap ramifications play out pretty much the same whether they trade Jones into space, or acquire an at-most minimum player in return.

At the core of this scenario, the Warriors would move Jones and have the two minimum slots if one them went to Damion Lee, and the other to another minimum player; probably a front court replacement for Jones. It would potentially give the team the ability to sign an undrafted rookie immediately, and at the very least, convert a two-way deal to a guaranteed deal very early in the season.

The viability of signing a rookie immediately are unclear, as my projections using Spotrac come up just short of Marks’ projections. With Marks’ projections, the Warriors would have $899,493 under the apron if they traded Jones and signed Lee and a veteran minimum player with three-plus years of service. It would leaving the team with $1,183 under the apron if they opted to immediately sign a rookie to a full deal.

The Warriors would have between $810,574 and $899,493 in space in this scenario, with the latter number giving just enough to guarantee a rookie minimum deal at $898,310. If the Warriors were to sign a veteran with three years of NBA Service as opposed to Lee, with two, that apron-salary difference would decrease from the $810,574-$899,492 range to a $752,284-$841,203 range.

Either way, this would open up enough room to guarantee a two-way player very early in the season, giving the team more flexibility. However, it’s an option that would only be considered if the Warriors had a replacement for Jones lined up, were unsatisfied with him, and were also eyeing an undrafted rookie, or highly valued that extra space under the apron.

It seems unlikely that DeMarcus Cousins would be willing to accept a minimum offer, but if Adrian Wojnarowski’s report is true that there is “no market” for Cousins, there is the slimmest of chances that he could come back to the Warriors via this avenue on the veteran minimum. If he comes back, it’s probably with Jones being traded away.

Graphic by Jake Hutchinson; Contract data via Spotrac.com and Realgm.com, in conjunction with projections by Bobby Marks

Scenario 4: Trade Damian Jones, sign one minimum player, one minimum player with one year of service and one undrafted rookie

This is probably the weirdest of these scenarios, with the team signing a full minimum player, a player with one year of service, and an undrafted rookie. With Marks’ projections, it could become two minimum players with two years of service and one undrafted rookie, i.e. Damion Lee and a front court player with two years of service Ike Anigbogu from the Indiana Pacers plus an undrafted rookie.

Here’s what that looks like:

Graphic by Jake Hutchinson; Contract data via Spotrac.com and Realgm.com, in conjunction with projections by Bobby Marks

Essentially, the difference in this situation wouldn’t matter much, like in the second scenario, where the Warriors would sign two undrafted rookies, because they’d be locking themselves into 15 roster spots. However, the difference in calculations here have pretty significant ramifications. In this situation, the team could sign a veteran minimum player (Lee included) and a minimum player with one year of service, like Isaiah Briscoe, plus an undrafted rookie.

However, using Marks’ calculations as opposed to Spotrac’s, the team could sign two minimum players with two years of service and an undrafted rookie, with the difference between the team’s salary and apron being -$29,446 (Spotrac’s numbers) to $59,473 (Marks’ numbers). As stated above, the Warriors could then re-sign Lee and add a third-year player like Anigbogu, plus an undrafted rookie.

It’s all a bit much with the nitty gritty of the numbers, but the point of this is to say that the Warriors still have some options in terms of filling out their roster. More than likely the team will keep the 15th spot open and not trade Jones. I would bet on Lee taking the 14th spot, and the team maintaining a bit of room under the apron in order to sign a two-way player later in the year.

However, should the Warriors opt to move Jones, or would like to look at options outside of Lee, here are free agents below, both for veteran- and less than three years of service minimum deals:

Free agent options:

These aren’t particularly exciting names, but there are some decent options for the Warriors on minimum contracts here, and if the team is enamored with any of these names, or has an agreement with one along with Lee, it could give reason for Jones to be moved. These are, of course, generalized summations of the free agent pool available, for players that could be in the Warriors’ price range at the minimum:

Graphic by Jake Hutchinson; Free agent data via Realgm.com