© Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Draft grades are a nebulous thing. Grade solely on the actual players drafted, irrespective of trades, seems counterintuitive. So the following grades take into account the value the 49ers got for their picks, regardless of whether or not they were used to draft a player. Separately, there is a grade for the actual players drafted, to separate the total return on the trades, and the actual players the 49ers drafted.
Heres what the 49ers got with their 2020 draft picks:
Round 1, Pick 13 (DeForest Buckner), Round 7, Pick 245: Round 1, Pick 14 – Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina, Round 4, Pick 117 (traded)
Round 1, Pick 31: Round 1, Pick 25 – Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State, Round 4, Pick 117, Round 5, Pick 176 (Broncos – Emmanuel Sanders trade)
Round 2, Pick 63: Dee Ford, EDGE, Chiefs
Round 3, Pick 95, Round 4, Pick 137: Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos, Round 5, Pick 156 – Trent Williams, LT, Redskins (Round 3, 2021)
Round 5, Pick 153 (Matt Breida): Colton McKivitz, OT/G, West Virginia
Round 6, Pick 210, Marquise Goodwin: Round 6, Pick 190 – Charlie Woerner, TE/FB, Georgia
Round 7, Pick 217 (Eli Harold): Jauan Jennings, WR, Tennessee
Draft (and trade) grade: A-
Here’s what the 49ers did with their 2020 draft picks (and one 2021 draft pick):
- Acquired an elite edge rusher in Dee Ford with a chronic knee condition for their second-round pick
- Acquired a borderline elite wide receiver in Emmanuel Sanders (and a 2020 fifth-round pick, and a likely 2021 fifth-round compensatory pick) who fundamentally changed the course of their 2019 season for a third- and fourth-round pick
- Traded away their franchise cornerstone defensive tackle DeForest Buckner for the 13th overall pick because they didn’t want to pay him
- Parlayed that 13th overall pick into the 14th overall and 117th overall picks, where they drafted the best defensive tackle in the draft in Javon Kinlaw who has long-term knee concerns, and used that fourth-round pick, along with their first-round pick (31st overall) and fifth-round pick (176th overall) to move up and draft a Sanders replacement in Brandon Aiyuk
- Replaced their longtime, All-Pro tackle (by keeping his retirement mostly quiet) Joe Staley with another All-Pro tackle in Trent Williams who’s three years younger, rested his body for a year, and came at a more than reasonable price in a 2020 fifth-round pick and 2021 third-round pick, which Williams will almost certainly recoup for them in 2022 if he signs elsewhere
- Traded away a running back who they might have cut in Matt Breida for basically a free fifth-round pick to draft a guard/tackle prospect they were high on
- Moved up 20 spots by trading Marquise Goodwin to draft an athletic blocking tight end, a position of need
- Drafted a large, physical wide receiver, potentially to protect themselves against Jalen Hurd being unable to ever get healthy
Here’s how those trades rank individually:
Dee Ford for Round 2, Pick 63: B+
If not for Ford’s knee situation, which the 49ers knew about going into the season, as well as the monumental contract they gave him, this would be rated higher. But Ford played in 22 percent of the 49ers’ defensive snaps last season, a total of 226 compared to the 1,022 snaps he played for the Chiefs the season prior in his first Pro Bowl season.
He was immensely productive in the time he was on the field, but the 49ers took another knee injury risk. The upside is that Ford becomes very cuttable after this season, with only $1.6 million salary guarantees (similar to the remaining $1.4 million year-over-year guarantees remaining on Jimmy Garoppolo’s deal).
He fundamentally changes the defense when he’s on the field, but he wasn’t on the field much, and the 49ers knew that was a risk when they traded for him. The second-round pick was fair value, but Ford could be gone next year if his health doesn’t improve.
Emmanuel Sanders, Round 5, Pick 156 for Round 3, Pick 95, Round 4, Pick 137: A+
Sanders also came with a fifth-round pick and will likely return another fifth-round compensatory pick. Without him, the 49ers don’t make the Super Bowl. He was absolutely worth the cost, and was a seamless mid-season addition who tangibly brought out the best in Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne. I cannot find a legitimate fault in this trade, other than concerns after tearing his Achilles, which he rendered moot in the series of games he played before being traded.
Round 1, Pick 13 for DeForest Buckner: B-
The return for Buckner is mostly fair, and the 49ers cleared a decent amount of cap space to sign Arik Armstead for about $4 million less per year. While Buckner’s contract is frontloaded with more guaranteed money, he’s effectively free ($1 million) to cut after year three, per OverTheCap.
While Javon Kinlaw could be just as good as Buckner, he has long-term knee concerns and needs to develop a lot of polish in his game. He won’t be near where Buckner is on Day 1, and Buckner is arguably the second-best defensive tackle in the NFL after Aaron Donald. The 49ers did move him to another conference, but they refused to pay Buckner his money because they didn’t want to touch Jimmy Garoppolo’s or Dee Ford’s contracts. It’s not an unreasonable trade by any standard, and provides San Francisco with long-term cap flexibility and an immediate, cheaper replacement, but it’s still losing an elite player for an unproven one, which is hard to call a guaranteed win.
Round 1, Pick 14, Round 4, Pick 117 for Round 1, Pick 13, Round 7, Pick 245: A+
The 49ers got a free fourth-round pick to get the guy they wanted, and they probably could have traded down again if the Buccaneers had drafted Kinlaw. The 245th pick isn’t meaningless, but it’s just barely before undrafted free agents, so there’s no point in criticizing it. The fourth-rounder helped net Aiyuk.
Round 1, Pick 25 for Round 1, Pick 31, Round 4, Pick 117, Round 5, Pick 176: B+
The 49ers gave up a chance to take a defensive back by making this move, which is the main knock on their draft, but they got their guy in Aiyuk. They seemed to be immensely confident that the Miami Dolphins were targeting Aiyuk, so it rendered the cost as necessary. They also viewed Aiyuk as someone worth drafting at pick 13, which seems on paper like a rose-tinted assessment, not because of how talented Aiyuk is, but because of the other players on the board at 13 who had trade-down value. They got their guy, but spread themselves thin in the secondary to do so.
Trent Williams for Round 5, Pick 156, Round 3, 2021: A+
An All-Pro, potentially Hall of Fame tackle retires and you get another one who’s three years younger and coming off a free season of rest? And you do it quietly, with a team your head coach is mortal enemies with? And if he leaves you get a free third-round pick in another year? Absurd. A phenomenal, faultless trade. That’s even without talking about the fact that Williams is an athletic, near-perfect scheme fit for the 49ers. The rest of the league is probably sickened by this. Sean McVay admitted he was, saying he was so happy for the 49ers and Williams (who he coached with Shanahan in Washington, D.C.) that he’d need to drink some more beer.
Round 5, Pick 153 for Matt Breida: A+
To get anything for Matt Breida outside of a seventh-round pick is tremendous work, let alone a high fifth-round pick. For a player who was going to be cut, the 49ers snuck their way back into the fifth round. Excellent business. In KNBR’s trading block, value assessment, he was assessed as a sixth-round pick value, with the Dolphins, along with the Buffalo Bills, as one of the top five trade targets:
Maybe the Bills, who are missing a first-round and seventh-round pick (two in the sixth), say that Breida is worth a fifth-rounder. I don’t see it, but it’s not an outrageous proposition.
Round 6, Pick 190 for Round 6, Pick 210, Marquise Goodwin: A+
Here’s what Marquise Goodwin’s value was assessed at in KNBR’s trading block, value assessment:
Why would any team trade for Goodwin? That’s not harsh, that’s a serious question. He might be a better option to get a backup player for another position, or in a deal to move up a few picks, say from the late sixth to the early sixth/late fifth for a team that wants speed and depth at wide receiver, like Green Bay.
Getting anything for Marquise Goodwin is tremendous business. The 49ers took advantage of the Eagles looking for speed and cleverly allowed Goodwin to negotiate basically a slightly-above-minimum deal at one year, $1.35 million, which reveals just how low Goodwin’s value was. Another free move up for a guy who was going to be cut.
Players drafted: A-
The player grades below are based on the value of that player in proportion to where they were drafted, not what was given up to acquire them in order to try and separate pick value from trade value
Javon Kinlaw: A
Kinlaw is the best defensive tackle in the draft. If his knees are as solid as the 49ers believe them to be, there’s no question the NFL coaching he’ll receive from the 49ers will help him develop the technique and refine his raw talent. One question there is how the 49ers’ defensive line coaching will be without pass rush specialist Chris Kiffin, who Nick Bosa told KNBR was the “brains” behind the 49ers’ pass rush last season. San Francisco hired Aaron Whitecotton, formerly the assistant defensive line coach with the Bills, as his replacement. If you’re going to try and replace Buckner one-for-one in this (pretty poor defensive tackle class) draft, Kinlaw was the only option. There were some enticing prospects like Auburn’s Marlon Davidson and Neville Gallimore, but neither have the raw explosiveness and athleticism that Kinlaw does.
Brandon Aiyuk: A
Aiyuk was the No. 5 receiver on my board, second-favorite (behind only CeeDee Lamb), and third-best fit for the 49ers. He probably has a higher floor than Kinlaw because he doesn’t have the same injury concerns. At worst, he’ll be a return specialist, where he was one of the top five returners in college, both on kickoffs (31.9 yards per return, 5th in FBS) and punts (16.1 yards per return, 3rd in FBS, 1 TD). But that’s underselling what Aiyuk does as a receiver. He’s billed as a home-run hitter, which is accurate, but makes it sound like he’s just a deep ball threat, which he is, because he’s tremendously deceptive, light on his feet, and has some of the stickiest hands in college football.
But in many ways, he’s like Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders; he’s got some of the physicality and after-catch lunacy of Samuel, but route-running ability from the outside and slot like Sanders does. He and Samuel will certainly both be used in some end-around, deceptive action along with George Kittle. He provides a youthful energy and unique set of traits that will benefit the 49ers more than Sanders, at age 32, who was invaluable last season (both Samuel and Kendrick Bourne took their game to another level because of him, and it seems unlikely those gains will spontaneously disappear).
Colton McKivitz: C
The only 49ers draft pick I disagree with, and it’s not a terrible pick. But to not address the corner position with three enticing, developmental options here in Virginia’s Bryce Hall (who may have failed his medical, which is a completely fair reason to pass), Temple’s Harrison Hand and Georgia Southern’s Kindle Vildor on the board, says a lot about how the team intends to address its secondary, as much as it does about how much they value the Daniel Brunskill model. Shanahan said the 49ers would have taken McKivitz in the fourth round if the Trent Williams deal didn’t get done.
McKivitz looks like he’ll project as a guard, who could, in a pinch, play tackle. But on film, he looks like he gets lost when run blocking on the outside. On the interior, it’s another story. It’s one thing to load up the offensive line with youth and position versatility, but the 49ers already have Daniel Brunskill, Ben Garland and Tom Compton as versatile interior options along with Justin Skule and Shon Coleman as backup tackles. It was just a perfect position to provide developmental, athletic youth at a position of need at corner. Clearly the 49ers were high on McKivitz, but the tape does not seem encouraging at tackle.
Charlie Woerner: A-
While Woerner wasn’t even on a lot of boards, he always seemed like an ideal fit for the 49ers. He’s a highly aggressive run blocker who was used in H-back, fullback and in-line tight end roles at Georgia. In that sense, along with lacking production (he simply wasn’t targeted as a receiving option), he’s a bit like George Kittle. Now, he’s not the athlete Kittle is, but almost no one is. He’s quick and shifty enough to project as a solid receiving option, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him become the clear No. 2 over Ross Dwelley (who had some clutch moments and a standout preseason) by year two.
Jauan Jennings: B+
Jennings is one of the few guys where the measurables don’t hold much water. His tape is wild. He’s a long, physical and deceptive receiver and runner who played some wildcat in college, and is a bit similar to former Tennessee teammate Jalen Hurd, but not quite as strong or speedy. There’s (fair) speculation that he could be insurance for Hurd, who looked scary for defenses in preseason action. But if Hurd actually can get healthy (stress fracture in the back of a 6’4″, physical player is terrifying), he might fit more as a tight end. Jennings might be one of those guys who just out-competes players and carves out a spot as a large red zone and slot option. There’s something in there, but it’s unclear whether he’s learned from the multiple off-field issues he put upon himself in college.
Draft in review:
The 49ers pretty much nailed their draft, and managed to do so with none of their original draft selections. The only issue is that they failed to draft a corner or defensive back and have five expiring contracts of starters in their secondary next season: Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon, K’Waun Williams, Jaquiski Tartt, Emmanuel Moseley (restricted free agent). Moseley will likely be back, but retaining those four won’t come cheap, and the 49ers will need youth at both corner and strong safety, especially given Tartt’s injury history.
They passed up a chance to add youth in this draft, which could be particularly costly given that corners can take more time than most positions to adjust to the NFL. Having someone come in behind Sherman this year was a perfect tutoring opportunity. Maybe Sherman returns and that chance is presented again, or the 49ers are as high on Tim Harris as they say (or former Lions second-rounder, and practice squad member, Teez Tabor turns into something). But as it stands, only Jimmy Ward, Tarvarius Moore, Harris and D.J. Reed Jr. are signed through 2021. That position will certainly be a priority next offseason.