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“Everything is different in 2020” has become a tired cliche, but cliches are cliches for a reason.
Because everything really is different in 2020, arbitration decisions very much included. The Giants will have to evaluate their eligible players through abbreviated, 60-game samples with salary-cap room that has not been determined because of the uncertainty of how much money can be generated in 2021. Last month, the organization laid off about 10 percent of its employees citing the financial impact of the coronavirus. Yet there was salary space enough for an $18.9 million qualifying offer that Kevin Gausman accepted.
By Wednesday, the Giants will have to decide which of their arbitration-eligible players they will tender contracts to. Not only will they be feeling around for what their payroll will be, they’ll also be wondering what the roster constraints will involve. The 28-man rosters will be gone, right? The 26-man roster is expected to be enacted — unless further COVID-19 restrictions swell the pool of available players.
The National League’s designated hitter will be gone, right? That is what is expected in the final year of the current CBA — unless a trade-off occurs in which the Players Association signs off on another year of the universal DH, which would entail 15 more teams that can give a lineup spot to a hitter.
Darin Ruf, who was expected to platoon at first and ended up platooning in left field, is a particularly difficult arbitration decision that awaits the Giants, who are concerned about roster flexibility but also would want his bat back.
“I think we just have to hedge our bets, which we have to do in a lot of different areas intrinsically,” Farhan Zaidi said recently about planning without knowing a DH decision.
Beyond the unknown in the future is the unknown of the recent past. How do you properly judge a player who just played one-third of a normal season? MLB Trade Rumors, in assigning its estimated arbitration salaries, generated three numbers for each player, using flat total from 2020 statistics as well extrapolations. The Giants ensured last year that they did not have to go to arbitration with any player, either outright nontendering players or agreeing at a lesser price. Independent arbitrators will have an especially challenging job this offseason.
This leaves the Giants with a lot of questions and 10 decisions to make by Wednesday. Five should be easy, even if figuring out the final financial figure won’t be.
For sure
Alex Dickerson, OF: San Francisco and the outfielder avoided arbitration last year in agreeing to a $925,000 pact, which Dickerson earned a raise from. They knew he could hit, and in playing 52 of a possible 60 games this season, he proved he can stay healthy, too (for at least a while). He posted a 157 OPS+ and set himself up for a nice raise, perhaps in the $2.5-$3 million zone.
Jarlin Garcia, LHP: How did the Marlins allow him to slip away, again? Garcia is as close to a sure-thing as the Giants’ bullpen possesses and allowed one earned run in 18 1/3 innings last season. He should make somewhere in the $1 million neighborhood.
Reyes Moronta, RHP: The 27-year-old did not quite make it back in 2020 after shoulder surgery, though he was a late-season Sacramento option. He has the tools to be a closer and should not yet command seven figures, so he’s an easy choice.
Austin Slater, OF: He showed flashes of being a solid everyday player in 2019, then showed flashes of being a potential star in 2020. Slater fought injuries that limited him to 31 games, but still should see a raise that puts him over $1 million.
Donovan Solano, 2B: What a $1.38 million bargain. The late bloomer contended for a batting title in his year-32 season and, while BABIP doubts might follow him forever, he became a must-keep. MLB Trade Rumors estimates that his stats extrapolated would command a $3.8 million arbitration decision.
Hmm
Tyler Anderson, LHP: A year ago, the Giants nontendered the lefty after picking him up from Colorado, only to re-sign him the next day. That could happen again, with the Giants trying to avoid an arbitration figure around $3 or $4 million. Anderson was inconsistent but effective enough (4.37 ERA) in 13 total games last season, and the Giants’ staff does not have a southpaw after losing Drew Smyly.
Trevor Gott, RHP: The Giants are needy in righty relief, but the market — especially when other relievers are nontendered — will be flooded. Gott, despite his memorable three-game blowup last season, still has solid stuff, but the Giants should have their pick of relievers who are either more established or less expensive.
Wandy Peralta, LHP: A mark of how deep the free-agent relief options will be is that Peralta is not guaranteed to return. The lefty was consistent if not dominant in mostly early relief for Gabe Kapler, finishing with a 3.29 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings. The Giants are stacked with lefties, and the 29-year-old should be looking at a possibly seven-figure arbitration number. There’s a good chance the Giants will like market options better.
Daniel Robertson, IF: The last two names are the two most interesting. The Giants liked Robertson enough to pluck him after a Rays DFA and quickly put him on the major league club. The 26-year-old has had success in the majors, played well for the Giants (in 24 plate appearances) and can handle shortstop, a nice complement for Brandon Crawford. He also brings versality the club values, even getting some corner-outfield reps. But he’s a righty hitter in an infield that needs a lefty for a roster that (probably) won’t be able to be as deep next year.
Darin Ruf, IF/OF: The Giants could not have asked for more from Ruf, who was an immediate spring training 1.0 sensation and eventually a legitimate find, the 34-year-old slashing .276/.370/.517 in 100 plate appearances. As a specialty player, though, used against lefties and without much of a glove (playing a passable first base and less-passable left field), he becomes a possible non-tender as the Giants wonder if there’s space for a bat that might lack a position. Ruf wants to return but should have MLB options if there isn’t room.
Not having a DH “may make it more important to have enough defensive versatility and defensive ability in our position-player group,” Zaidi said, “that may be something that influences some of these decisions.”