I kept feeling it in my gut since Wednesday morning: Rockets in seven.
I couldn’t shake the memory of April 6 at Chase Center, when everything seemed to change. The Rockets were no longer the Warriors’ personal toy. Amen Thompson and a pack of hungry wolves harassed the incomparable Steph Curry and held him to *three* points in 33 minutes. It was the lowest output of Number 30’s career when he played more than 30 minutes. A flustered Curry snapped at Rockets coach Ime Udoka. A shift in the Western Conference universe seemed to be playing out.
Holy team on the rise, Batman.
And yes, the Jock Blog’s use of Batman is meant to be a Dad joke, per Jimmy Butler’s oft-used metaphor after the play-in win over Memphis.
And watching the Warriors lose at home to the Clippers in Game 82, followed by a sketchy second-half finish in the Grizzlies win — in which Jimmy and Steph were furiously putting on a two-man show, with precious little help — it looked like the last thing the Warriors need right now is that pack of hungry wolves at the door, holding home-court advantage, even.
It was time to resist the knee-jerk urge to always pick the Warriors. It was time to look at this through sober eyes, realize that the size of an Alperen Segun and Steven Adams is exactly what the Warriors do NOT need to see, and take the Rockets in seven games over the Warriors in the Western Conference first round playoffs.
So why am I taking the Warriors in six!?!?
Because if you’ve ever been in the position to publicly pick against Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler’s playoff debut together, you’d realize how dumb it sounds to publicly pick against Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler’s playoff debut together.
After all, they don’t call him ‘Regular Season Jimmy’. Experience and smarts will be the difference here. Not to mention that guy the French were calling “le devil” last summer.
Point is, there are seriously legitimate things to fear in the Houston Rockets. The aforementioned size and defense top the list, as does the intangible ‘swag’ factor — the Rockets seem to be morphing into a team that does not fear the Warriors as much as their predecessors. The Warriors have never lost to the Rockets in the playoffs. They are 4-0 all time. But those kinds of stats, the young Rockets seem to be saying with their chirpiness, are for your grandfather, as I was just saying to my Grandpa in his Clyde Drexler jersey.
And the youth: Thompson, Sengun and leading scorer Jalen Green are all 22 years old. Jabari Smith, Jr. is 21. Tari Eason is 23.
Steph is 37. Jimmy and Draymond Green are 35.
Holy gas tank level, Batman.
But the schedule cuts the older Warriors a break. First off, the Dubs earned four days off with the play-in win. After Easter Sunday’s Game 1, the teams have two days off. After next Wednesday’s Game 2, they have two more off days again before Game 3. That sort of break means the Dubs can possibly steal a game in Houston of the first two and change the narrative.
And that’s what I expect to happen.
The NBA is littered with stories of teams who have to be knocked down for a period of time before arriving, as I was just saying to the Michael Jordan Bulls of 1988-90 and the Steph Curry Warriors of 2013-15. The up-and-coming Rockets could easily fit that mold — be a year or two away, while Steph and Jimmy have the slowest heartbeats at the most important moments in these games.
To just reduce my argument for ‘Warriors in six’ to Steph and Jimmy seems reductive, at best. But that’s honestly the reason I think the Warriors will win in six. Steph and Jimmy have already done something the Warriors couldn’t do — win a play-in game. And now in their playoff debut together?
You’d be a fool to bet against them, even when your muse suggests Rockets in seven.
Your brain says Warriors in six. And that’s the call.