The Warriors’ defensive regression has been a frequent topic of conversation, and an area that most believe the team will have to improve upon during the season if they are to win their second title in three years.
Though the numbers would have you believe that the team has taken a significant step back on the defensive end this season, a closer examination reveals that those concerns are somewhat overblown. Yes the Warriors’ defensive efficiency rating has fluctuated between 15th and 25th early in the season, after finishing fourth in the league in 2015-16 and first in 2014-15. When it matters, however, Golden State’s performance at the defensive end has actually been much closer to previous seasons than those figures would lead you to believe. Via sports analyst Dean Oliver
The Warriors’ D efficiency is 20th overall, but actually 10th when it’s not garbage time. Dead last in garbage time (21 pts worse than avg).
— Dean Oliver (@DeanO_Lytics) November 21, 2016
Golden State’s rating actually jumped from 20th to 15th after their blowout victory over Indiana last night, but the fact remains that the Warriors’ overall defensive numbers are being skewed by what’s happening after the games have been decided. Eight of Golden State’s 14 games so far this season have been decided by 20 points or more. With the Warriors offensive firepower that trend is likely to continue. Many of their games will essentially end in the third quarter, and the meaningless fourth quarter performances will continue to affect the team’s overall defensive metrics.
Numbers aside, the good news for Golden State is that they have looked much better on the defensive end as of late, and consequently are playing their best basketball of the season, winning their eighth consecutive game with Monday’s victory.
In a vacuum, certain statistics might tell a different story, but so far this season, the Warriors’ defense has been just fine when it’s mattered.
